BTC Market Watch (Possible Cypher pattern)

Pretty excited to see a Cypher pattern forming! Here is the hourly chart.

C point stopped right at the max amount the price could go without invalidating the pattern. This means that right now I am bearish with a stop loss set if the price crosses above the C point. I expect to see downward pressure kicking up again and pushing the price down to confirm a D point between $7,350 and $7,400. Confirming the D point is a solid signal to close out any shorts and go long. Keep in mind this is an hourly chart, so trying to trade this may take a long time to complete.

There is plenty of evidence to support a claim that the price will reach the D point. Looking at the chart you can see the BB is trending down, as is the price. Right now the center BB is acting as support but as time goes on, the floor is lowering which will allow the support to grind in the down direction more easily. As far as the cloud is concerned here, I see the BB and cloud lining up nicely to suggest a strong resistance to any push up in the price. While it's possible the price goes up, I find it MUCH more likely the price grinds in the downward direction until we reach and confirm our D point.

To add evidence to support a reverse in direction once the D point in confirmed, I point to the dark blue trend line that moves right through the D point box. So you can see where that line comes from, I have highlighted it purple in the picture below.

It's important to note that the trend line can be drawn a few different ways, and it's only an area of support rather than a number. The actual number that the market respects could be far closer to 7k. However, I would argue this is not the case at the moment because once the D point validates, the cypher pattern makes it statistically likely to go up.

Finally, this is not a long term bullish trade. This would be a bullish entry at 7350-7400, and selling off around 7500-7600 area.

What if the price does break above the C point, what then? Well, there is also a possible Butterfly pattern forming with a valid C point already confirmed. The D point would confirm a bearish reversal at $7,858. Here is the 15 minute chart to show you the pattern.

Just because the pattern could form, doesn't mean it will though. I have no solid evidence to point to why the price would go all the way up to validate the D point. This pattern is more of a "plan B" if the price ends up going against the TA, giving me favorable price levels to scale more in short to offset a losing trade.

Thanks for reading,

-Icee-

Please leave me an upvote, and remember this is not trading advice.