BITCOIN (BTC) Update: Overnight Price was Wave 2 bounce and now Wave 3 down onsets
Here is the chart with my original labels for the sub-waves i,ii,iii,iv (white) and v for wave 1 (white). The overnight price action tracked quite well the abc waves (red) for wave 2 (white). When this level of adherence to projection happens, it usually means that the price movement itself is adhering to the Fibonacci ratios.
So, if wave 2 (white) is complete, then the most probable sequence is wave 3 (white). In this chart, I've labeled the sub waves of wave 3 (white). About 75% of the time, wave 3s are very swift and scary. So, there could be a dramatic acceleration of price downdraft. Let's see what happens.
Here is the longer term outlook, with waves 1,2,3,4,5 (white) of the larger wave C (capital red). This is the first probable stop for wave C as described in the previous blog yesterday and where the second horizontal black line of support resides.
It's important to note, that price has not broken through the first black horizontal line and that's significant. Until it does, there is an alternate semi-bullish scenario but I won't discuss that now. So, once Bitcoin price falls decisively below $3,884; the bottom of wave A (red), it would solidly confirm the bear trend. If any wave, it'll be a wave 3 that would have enought strength to bring price to below $3,884.
If this blog post has entertained or helped you to profit, please follow, upvote, resteem and/or consider buying me a beer:
BTC Wallet - 19gHMJc9wi9KkP47wokz8y4cFNgz1kAAUE
ETH Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
LTC Wallet - LU1mEw1LHvffoWf9VDEVdP7Day4jv6VLqu
EOS Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.
ETH looking pretty similar, does your math adds up to an ETH going below 200 usd?
Here is the ETH update, please use only to augment your due diligence.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/ether-eth-update-long-term-elliott-waves
I am not too concerned about short term fluctuations in BTC prices. I am in for the long term.
Absolutely! There are traders and investors and some who are both, like me. TA helps select good altcoins; e.g. the 466% gain on Monaco that was analyzed in my blog, same with the huge gains on NEO, etc. This is better than random or fundamental selection.
For me, I'm targeting the Wave IV major bottom to buy more Bitcoins. Using the >70% profit made from buying in at the July bottom. Using TA.
Anything on ADX and Komodo. I 'm specially interested in Komodo because it had a price drop thanks to some FUD much like what happened to NEO. Currently I'm holding both.
Here is KMD analysis, please use only to augment your due diligence.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/komodo-kmd-abc-waves
Thanks!
Here is the ADX analysis update, please use only to augment your due diligence.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/adex-adx-update
Neo needs to sort out wallet issues. If it wants to be HUGE, needs to have a streamlined access to wallet services - or bring out a dedicated wallet. For an English speaker, it is quite confusing. I lost a Neo in the ether...........so was too scared to transfer the rest........not throwing good coin after lost coin........
Go to https://www.reddit.com/r/NEO/ and get the NEON wallet from the sidebar or keep your NEO in https://www.binance.com/ which will also pay you GAS.
Excellent analysis, thank you, Haejin. I have a theory about Bitcoin. Because there are newer and better coins coming onto the market, it has increased competition. In relation to some of these coins, Bitcoin is overpriced. What do you think? I think its slide is permanent and it will eventually stabilise somewhere much lower - maybe $80 - $220 - within that range..... For instance, I just bought Metal. I want something easy to use and instant. I have bought Neo for the long term......transferring to my wallet, I lost a coin.....only one, but when that coin is my future....my point? For coinmakers, if they make it easy, I will follow....I don't want to have a challenge in keeping my coins :-) keep up the good work, I enjoy reading your analyses and have followed you.
There are three primary decision makers that will make Bitcoin subordinate to another coin. The Users, Merchants and Miners. I don't think they will abandone Bitcoin just yet. I don't see it.
Here is my long term chart. After the final Wave V is placed, prices can drop to sub $100. And who knows what event or news might cause it but one of those or both shall arrive to justify the forecast.
Thank you, @haejin, for replying to my post on your article. You are most kind and I value all of your insights. You are a genius. I love the rational way you explain your views. You are very generous in sharing your wisdom on Steemit. My next task on here will be to work out how to buy you a beer :)
Same here. You can check my previous comments on the matter. https://steemit.com/@vimukthi/comments
I've been very Anti-BTC and practically consider it a curse in the blockchain space. BTC shouldn't worth more than the transaction fees it generate which are Higher than VISA and slower than any other crypto. What a poster boy we have.... No wonder blockchain isn't mainstream yet.
I like metal and TenX but my favorite is Monaco. Also you should check out Dash, NEM and PIVX. They are all great products.
Thank you for your comment. Today, I took possession of my first hard wallet. I picked it up from my post office in the little hippy town near where I live. It came just in time to help me buy into a new ICO. I will be buying more. I just wanted to get my head around how to buy into the ICO - my first, and it took me at least 4 hours to work out how to use the wallet, too. I bought powerledger (POWR). You can buy it in Bitcoin/LTC/Ether. Sorry it took me so long to reply to your comment on my post. The POWR token I mention here is being issued by a legitimate electricity company here in Australia. It is my energy supplier (Origin Energy). I think this token/coin offering should do well. In fact, it should do very well. Currently, Australia has a gas shortage and may be about to cause ructions in the global financial world of contracts because it is selling its gas on long-term contracts for cheaper overseas than what it supplies its citizens and national companies. The main buyer is China. If Australia reneges on its contracts, this could cause a lack of confidence in trading circles. Because of the shortage of gas, the demand for electricity increases. Read about the ICO here: https://mainsale.powerledger.io/#footer . I bought into this ICO today. And I will buy some more, now I know how. Thank you for your tips, above. Yes, Bitcoin is being bolstered by big money because there are Bitcoin millionnaires who might lose if Bitcoin took a tumble :) But it would be okay if it was a gentle unwind rather than a cataclysmic tumble. Cheers, Happy Steeming....
Congratulations on your first hard wallet! I'll check out the ICO.
I do think the death of BTC will be like the death of British Empire (or Nokia or Internet Explorer or Command Line Interface) The crash would burn lots of idiots and mega rich BTC holders who won't be even able to dump their coins safely. BCH would soften the blow and Alt-coins will take over. Before all, BTC will reach ATH.
I share your opinion. Thank you for your reply :)
Make me even more confident that our counts are relatively in sync before what should be a massive selloff and eventual buying opportunity! :)
One minor complaint with this analysis, which doesn't change the overall picture, is that minor wave A needs to be labeled as five waves if the move of one larger degree is going to be a zigzag as shown. Zigzags are 5-3-5 movements.
Your minor wave A can be legitimately labeled as five waves as shown here https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@stocks29/bitcoin-elliott-wave-update-is-it-time-to-brace-for-another-strong-selloff
I did not label the five sub waves. Didn't see the need. Often new EW readers get confused the busier the chart.
I agree about busy charts. I'm referring to the abc labels within wave A. I believe that should be 12345 instead of abc, since zig zags must be 5-3-5, not 3-3-5.
Oh, I see what you're saying. Yes, per EW rule it should be five waves. But over the many years, the fives waves of A and C to me almost always appear as an abc. It's hard for me to ignore how uncanny that abc appears. Every now and then, I'd see a very nice form/fit motive for A and C waves. So, it's just habit of labeling on how I see it.
Yeah, makes sense. It's definitely possible we'll see a double three complex correction in which case abc is warranted as that would be a 3-3-3 :)
In any case, looking forward to profiting from this drop and then buying things on sale.
Thanks for the awesome analysis.
yes, basically, I see more the wxy
I upvoted your blog as well! Nice analysis!
In light of recent developments, I ended up switching it to an abc as part of a wxy. Seems to fit better.
meep
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