Bitcoin possibilities. Picks for next month.
Bitcoin possibilities
Hello dear steemians,
here we are, bitcoin @ $4900 USD and everyone is thinking about their lambo color.
I would like to share with you the possible paths taken by the ecossystem in the next couple of months and then years.
Bitcoin is not yet ready to reach new highs in the short term as you can Read Here.
This will mean everything would follow and the targets would be:
- Bitcoin: $4400 - $4000
- Neo: $24 - $22
- Iota: $0,30 - $0,25
- OmiseGo: $5,60 - $3,75
- Bitshares: 715 - 550 satoshi
- Stellar: 75 satoshi
Let us take a look into history
It is a mathmatical fact that Bitcoins volatility is decreasing (and pretty fast now, apparently), meaning that if it retraces the $4000 mark is very unlikely. (open images in new tabs to see in 1900x resolution).
Also do you see how the last wave resembles the this one? -All indicators signal a drop and history showed us last time that it did.
Altcoins plunging while bitcoin surging
Simply put there are two reasons:
- They had too big of a momentum, oversctreching every indicator;
- People started swaping Alts for Bitcoins once momentum started to fade.
The best course of action for someone holding alts would be
- Do nothing. wait the fall and buy more;
- Sell small % hoping to rebuy;
Everything plunges while the king sails it's spaceship.
There are alot of coins that are not finished with their respective corrections. OmiseGo for example had a deep one comming.
When it comes to altcoins you cannot simply close your eyes and wait. There are good projects, there are bad projects.
Imagine 2 soap bubbles floating, one is BTC ecossystem, the other your altcoin. Now, your altcoin resides inside the BTC ecossystem bubble, so it's waves are felt only in that bubble. When the BTC bubble waves it's felt in every bubble residing inside BTC bubble. This to say, you need to take a deep analysis into your coin then the into BTC, then, you intersect both analysis.
When BTC drops everything follows, when BTC is on the rise or moving sideways, the AltCoins return to their respective movements. Due to the money flowing in and out of the ecossystem in waves what happens is that the BTC & AltCoin corrections usually match.
So we reached $4000 USD, now the moon is coming, right?
Calm down... Calm down... you cannot feel the storm if you are inside the center.
Altought the downtrend has been broken. Alltough some major indicators pointing to ATH right away.
Let's be rational here... We either enter a hype cycle or the correction isn't over:
The possibilities
Bitcoin
A)
It's possible that this was only a dip before a big move to the $6.600 - $7.500 USD.
There would be a sharp rise followed by a sharp correction and the end of the 5th eliot wave.
Sharp rise & Sharp correction.B)
The growth would be very strong and continued after the dip to $4.000 USD.
The 5th eliot wave would start and take bitcoin to $8.000-10.000$.C)
It's the result I've seen the most consensus since the correction started.
In this scenario analysis put btc at around $3.000 USD, but I think the pshycological phase of fear/desesperation will start taking it to -$2.500 USD.
Fluctuating momentum resulting in healthy envirnmoment(same as last time);
AltCoins
A)
Altcoins will continue to underperform bitcoin for a long period.B)
Altcoins will recoup in force once btc starts upswinging again.C)
The crash would be so bad that by the end of it the Altcoins will be bottomed out before btc does.
Using my "Bubble" analogy the Alts bubble would be living outside BTC making it very good.
My picks:Ripple
Stellar
Iota
Neo
OmiseGo
Bitshares
@originalworks
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