Why I Think We've Reached a Bitcoin Bottom
Bitcoin has had a crazy past week relative to the slow and steady downtrend we've been in. Volume finally started to pick up and notably price pumped $1k in 30 mins before we saw the market start to stall again.
Last week I started to become tempted to buy Bitcoin at around $6800. Bitcoin had been trading around that level for 2 weeks, so mentally I suspect I started to feel like we were at a bottom and I didn't want to miss out on the next pump. The fact that I felt FOMO while we were trading sideways (especially given my general pessimism) LIKELY means that many other market participants feel the same way. The only reason I didn't buy is because of trading rules I've set where I can't increase my position size in Bitcoin until it goes down to $5k.
Furthermore, Bitcoin dominance is starting to fall which means money is shifting into altcoins again. This is a risk-off trade which shows confidence in the market. My confidence in my 50% BTC dominance prediction is finally starting to wane, which given the level of conviction I had for months despite all the criticism I received for it, is a sign that perhaps the market is ready for more stupid behavior (AKA another nice bull run).
In terms of altcoin trades I'm looking at, I discuss the following:
- Litecoin at 0.015 BTC
- Monero below 0.025 BTC
- Nano at around 70 - 75k Satoshi (yes, the crypto I called a pump & dump - it's finally come full circle)
What are your thoughts on the market? As usual, feel free to share them with me and the community in the comment section below. Thanks for watching / reading!
@cryptovestor great video and I'm glad that you mentioned that you were on steemit I would have never known it keep up the good work Buddy
i dont think monero has govt related issues or will ever be in . But i am concerned more on the community around it , development in particular (just recently forked into 4 offshoot) . These are signs of internal stress . I hope i am wrong . And i agree about ltc and nano. Thanks for the cover.
by nature you cannot stop the forks, I suppose what you'd want to decide on is if you want to stick to the one that stays asic resistent. Also, keep in mind that if key people in an "anonymising" currency stay anonymous, that would be better, but in saying that I dont fully understand ring signatures all that much...
Monero isnt anonymous , its transaction is just private . So i will hope to have more community development around it. Utility drives the price and building an advocate panel through community is a proven method of brining more users, hence utility.
Right, I need to do more research on Monero..
I am still hesitant to think the bottom is in as I have not the traditional capitulation bottom seen in certain assets in the past. While this may be a signal that it is a bottom, I am just looking to scale into my core positions and research some potential additions to the portfolio. BTC dominance is done for but I do believe that bigger, quality assets will outperform Altcoins in general as most do not have a working project and will fail to get one done given the regulatory environment and the potential impact it may have on projects, teams and investors. However, in the long term this bear market will prove to be another bump in the chart as market capitalization will continue to grow as it becomes a more relevant asset class.
Agree, capitulation hasn't yet occurred.
you and I are on the same page..you know I called BUY last wednes..(6950) called resistance 8400..I don't like the sentiment no's I watch. Longer term? higher.
Hello, thanks for your comment, but pardon my ignorance but how will regulations stifle product creation and innovation?
Great video. I've been buying small amounts every week for the last month. Still buying after the pump. I also think the market has bottomed out. Although some alt coins have jumped too high too fast.
as always, you have my support.
D.
As usual very in depth detailed video, you are a breath of fresh air in this space. No shilling or hyping up garbage coins just the facts. In order for the crypto market to become mainstream we need more individuals like yourself.
Personally I am not sure that this is the bottom although I am happy to be proved wrong. Google trends results for both BTC and crypto show no discernible up tick and I am wary when the big investors and funds state that they are going to invest. The likelihood is that they are already invested and are in fact looking to offload.
LTCBTC is a great trade. I've been trading the swings for 6 months now. It's pretty much the only coin that you can do that with against bitcoin.
Yesterday I posted an article and in it I stated that I think Bitcoin will go as low as $3,500 because it dropped 85% in it's last bear market in 2014. Is $3,500 bitcoin out of the question in your opinion?
Looking at the graphs today trend reversal can be seen to have started at the beginning of April for most of the coins which is great news. It would have been interested to hear your thoughts about other jumps such as EOS, NEO, Steem or XLM and whether you think there have been legitimate catalysts due to which these cryptoassets spiked.
On a slightly different note, it seems like a great time to get a couple of good quality videos out and snatch the "cryptocomebackers" who will soon be looking for high quality content online, @Cryptovestor. Seize the opportunity while other cryptotubers are still relatively quiet.
I love your positive videos. And I also think that we found a bottom. All those get quick traders have already sold and there is no real reason for those who have bought in at sub 9k.
I think we see the daytraders taking profits after some upwards movement, but it is largely accumulation by smart money (because smart money wouldnt have bought in at 20k). The price probably will go sideways, maybe slowly upwards until we get a catalyst (like an BTC ETF or something else and less awesome).
And then the price will go up really quickly (as seen with the 1000$ pump a couple of days ago), as the not so smart money and the daytraders, rush in, to ride the way. Lets see, where it will take us.