Should I Power Down? - Early Morning Steem Thoughts by Charlie Shrem

in #steem8 years ago (edited)

Photo on 8-27-16 at 8.00 AM #2.jpg

Its 6am and I’m sitting on the couch thinking about Steem.

In Prison, we had to be awake at 5:30am, fully dressed and cube cleaned for 7am inspection and standing count. I became a morning person and realized my most creative time is in the morning when everyone is sleeping and I’m not rushed for time.

So I’m thinking about Steem.

Yes, I know it’s crazy but hear me out. As I am working out early stages of my stealth startup I need to constantly be assessing the risk of my own crypto and fiat assets.

Right now in my wallet I have 11,872 Steem Power, about $11,000 at the current rate. A tidy sum that I have been awarded from writing content here in the past 2 weeks. I’ve also been awarded Steem Dollars, that I have been selling for Bitcoin, buying Steem, and playing around with other crypto tokens. Steemit has empowered me because I can focus on building my stealth startup and not have to worry about work immediately following my prison release. Thank you!

So the question I have been mulling over is, do I Power Down and take $100 a week for the next 2 years or do I keep my Steem Power, even buying more, effectively reinvesting in Steems future?

I could keep my Steem Power, make interest from it, curate and vote on other content, comment and be apart of the community. By doing this, I am participating in the network and increasing my holdings indirectly.

On the other end, I could power down and take weekly installments. $100 a week could cover a small mortgage, or health insurance for 2 years, a very real passive income. I still draw interest from Steem Power while powering down but not as much over time.

@blakemiles84 made a comment on a recent post of mine:

That powering down thing is the one flaw that I personally see in the system. There doesn't appear to be an incentive to remain powered up at the moment. Game Theory that scenario out and everyone is racing to power down and sell off their Steem due to the opportunity costs and the fact that all the whales are doing it.

Many of you will comment and tell me that my answer lies in wether I think Steem has a future or not, however that’s not the whole story.

Many early adopters are powering down, whales, and some of the founders. Does this mean they don’t believe in Steem? Absolutely not. Steem as a company and its founders purposely staked a large amount of Steem so they could power down to fund development costs and grow the company to build out the network. They are rapidly hiring.

What about whales? Im speaking to one right now who holds more than $100,000 worth of Steem Power. He is starting a development company to build out apps for the Steem network. If he were to power down, the funds would be reinvested in Steems future. Whales need to eat too, so even powering down to live is important. Using SteemStats.com watch some of the accounts of Whales, they are curating 30-50 posts a day, a time investment in the future of Steem.

Take a look at the list of top 10 accounts currently powering down from SteemDown.com:

Screen Shot 2016-08-28 at 7.48.07 AM.png

Go through that list and randomly pick one out, a majority of those accounts are still authoring/curating. The assumption is that the whales sit back and power down without contributing to the platform.

Screen Shot 2016-08-28 at 7.49.15 AM.png

Another point to remember is that, one of the largest accounts @steemit is selling large amount of Steem above market to support the price of Steem Dollars. This creates a lot of selling pressure, but at the same time Steem is distributed to new users at a decentralized rate.

@Dantheman has commented on this:

All orders are placed at or above price on coin market cap. These orders are helping to maintain the Steem dollar peg. Proceeds of these sales are kept as Steem dollars which keeps value in the platform while helping to distribute Steem.

Ned and Dan are constantly upgrading and building out the network while making sure Steem is distributed. They have the largest incentive to grow the project long term. In fact, they are probably reading this post and its comments.

Look at the distribution of Steem in accounts, this needs to get more diversified but all accounts are given free Steem.

Screen Shot 2016-08-28 at 7.45.09 AM.png

Another user @officialfuzzy67 said:

Many just want developers to go without anything to build their platform for them so they can later cash out. There are multiple people who knew what they were doing who are not on Dan and Ned's team who got a lot of tokens as well (because it was open for anyone to get into--if they were really interested in learning to do so). Satoshi had the first movers advantage, but now that the cat is out of the bag. Dan and Ned burned the bag so it can never go back in. Yeh I think we want them to have resources to keep the platform strong instead of giving it to people too early on who only look at this as a get rich quick scheme and want to cash out asap.

My take is that Steem is very new, not even a year old. As far as risk and hedging goes, the smart move is to bet on the platform on stay powered up. If you can spare the funds, even powering up your Steem is a good idea. After my intro post on Steemit, I started powering down but immediately cancelled it once I rationally thought about that decision.

I'm still new to Steemit so there are probably facts I'm missing, angles I'm not seeing. Please educated me! Should we power down? What do you think? What are the incentives for powering down or staying up? I could always power down for a few weeks if I need the funds and cancel it.

Let me know what you think in the comments.

-Charlie

Sort:  

Considering that you make a substantial amount of SBD with every post you write, that is the kind of treatment famous people get on Steem unlike most regular users, I don't see any point in you needing to Power Down. Just build some more voting power and use it to make a difference on Steemit with it.

You already have substantial amount of Steem Power accumulated and you should use that to give back to Steemit community by voting for good posts you find. I see that unlike some other celebrities here on Steemit you are actually curating quite a bit already, so just keep up the good work... :)

Only found out about this place yesterday and have been TRYING to understand what's going on, but is bringing dreadful memories of school back where i just DID not dig what teach was telling me but felt embarrassed to keep repeating 'WAHT?? HEY?? I don't understand' Well that is how I feel. I could talk to you under the table about mythology, and paganism, and art, and psychedelics, and the NWO, but i have not got a business head at ALL so am really struggling to get 'it'. Wanted to pm you about this but seems there is no way to pm people?

this site helped me, and I agree having joined a few weeks ago. I felt overwhelmed and lost and actually posted about yesterday but just keep reading steem help posts and learn more and more and it will start to illuminate.
https://steemit.com/steemit/@mindover/steemit-for-dummies-like-me-everything-you-need-know-to-get-started

I am in the same boat! Going to read the white paper now...

I am new to Steem also! I think that you should stick with it. It was very confusing to me at first, but now I am getting the hang of it. As I understand it you can invest your own money to buy more Steem power and increase your ability to make more for your posts and votes. IS THIS RIGHT EVERYBODY, CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG

OMG.....I just totally resonated with your comment....I'm feeling the same way here @julianoneill

The above comment was absolutely wonderful, giving a nice complement and encouragement. Why did it earn 47 cents and the Thank You $16 bucks? The article was well written and the writer has an amazing story behind him, come on whales please stop this bias voting keeping us people wanting fairness down. Finally a system where votes matter and the powers that be still not making much matter to level out success. Cheers!

Honestly, I'm not sure. His comment got 28 votes, and mine 9. As I understand it the weight of the voter matters a lot, but I need to understand the mechanics better.

Votes are weighted by SP. 5 votes with 100 SP each is equal to 100 votes with 5 SP each.

I agree with you @cryptos. Especially the part about Charlie Shrem curating posts. If I had a post that didn't make much money, but I did see an upvote or comment by Charlie, I think that would feel like payment in itself. I really do admire Charlie's way of thinking.. so his curation is more important to me, than any SBD/SP I'd earn from strangers curating my content.

Another thing that I like about Steem, is that here, Charlie Shrem and I are equal. If he had a blog running at www.charlieshrem.com, I couldn't compete with him. But since both of our blog posts appear on www.steemit.com, this creates a level playing field. There is something really fair about that.

Albeit the playing field may be level, but he's still a more talented player. I hope read 137 books one day, and then we'll see what happens next. lol.

I really like Charlie compared to some other so called celebrity users and continue reading his valuable articles . I make 1-200$ every post since I signed up. If I would see a few more zeros at the end I would do the same, Power UP and UP and UP , in my case little by little every day to support this community.

This is what I like about @charlieshrem , he is contributing to the platform like all regular users.

Then again, if he keeps posting the same way he does, I don't think that powering down is much of an issue as he would make so much more per week considering the amount he gets to divest once a week. So he could power down as well if he wanted those extra Steem, but if you want to be more effective on Steemit with curation its obviously better to have more SP.

One thing you seem to miss in ypur equation is the fact that

SteemDollar pay interest

... currently at a 10% apr. Arguable, a steemdollar doesnt trade en par with the usd just now but if you believe the mechanics behind SD are sound you may want to diversify not into altcoins but keep some liquidity in SteemDollar .. (not actual investment advice)

hmm, hadn't considered that either.
@charlieshrem, I'd say keep the power, for as long as you can.
Eventually you'll - I think very likely - be happy you did. And in the mean time, your voting power is a good thing for the rest of us.
But if you're only voting up on the few people you follow however, consider following more folks who create content you enjoy. Otherwise you're just keeping it in the family, as it were.
You spread more than a given monetary value with you upvotes, you spread good will. Far more important.

Steem Power is your long term investment, while the Steem Dollars are your income.

Take the $SD out, but leave the steem power ... that's a very simple, yet well balanced, smart and healthy approach ... there are a bunch of good reasons why the system has been set-up this way.

This seems like the best approach and the one I have been following. Also, Part of my post was to show that just because you power down, does not mean you dont believe in the platform.

sure, I basically summarized your post in 2 lines, that's all

I agree with this approach. At least until your holdings grow very large, leave your Steem powered up and treat Steem Dollars as your income from posting, to spend on expenses as you like. With a large amount of SP, the interest earned from holding will be pretty nice.

It makes sense for big whales to power down, as they've got so much SP that powering down essentially gives them their income to live off or diversify into other investments. If I had greater than 100,000 SP I would probably follow that approach and rely on curation rewards to re-invest back into the platform. Curating is definitely a whale's game for now.

Not only that but if whales do not power down, the redistribution and flatter distribution of stake that everyone says they want can't possibly happen. Two sides of the same coin.

Thats an important point!

@charlieshrem I came here with nothing, I am unemployed and even the small amount I have earned has allowed me to power up and live off of my SBD without powering down once. I guess to someone like me who has nothing, steemit has made a big change in my life so I fully believe in it and ask you to pleeeease hold don't power down. Steemit is a long term investment and currently my future. The little bit I have manged to earn so far is everything I have, I have earned it proudly and would like to ask you to act in the best interests of my future investment and please hold. :-) Thanks

Steem Power is not actually interest... it is a mechanism so that holders can maintain their share of the total system. If @dantheman would consider an internal market for vote delegation, the sale of those rshares as @arhag calls them would provide a passive income for Steem Power.

sure, but I was basically talking to people who are actively posting and making small money, not those few whales

Yep, I figured that's who your comment was aimed at. Just saying that it does indeed make sense for whales to have a different perspective and power down in order to make a living. They can do that and still be a positive driving force in Steemit's development, the two activities are not contradictory.

sure, but the whales are like 0.002% of everybody who's active here ...

Wow $14 000 .. not bad for 10 posts .. that's $1400 per post! Golly! Plus another grand - walking-around money, and you're getting over $ 2000 for this one ! Really geat!! Certainly this is proof that, as you say, @dan and @ned are "... making sure Steem is distributed" Distributed indeed! chaaaa-ching.

I read your latest this morning and decided to stop Powering Down too!! Ya, really! My 40 bucks will remain in STEEM Power!

Many early adopters are powering down, whales, and some of the founders. Does this mean they don’t believe in Steem?

I repost one previous answer of me that fits very well here...

Many whales have too much of their wealth concentrated on steem !!! So even if they are bullish they are not comfortable to have for example 90% of their wealth on a single project... It is for them like a "one point of failure" ... I assume many of them want only to put some of their eggs on other baskets just in case the project fails...It is just a proper bankroll management, poker players out there can understand me ;)

PS BTW steemit whales could be good poker players ...

Even with Aces on our hands (steemit?) the probability to loose against another's pocket pair is 20% !!! So it would be still a gamble to bet all your wealth on one hand...

https://steemit.com/steem/@charlieshrem/was-the-launch-of-steem-a-scam-or-the-only-legal-way-thoughts-on-steem-by-charlie-shrem-a-week-later#@liondani/re-mexbit-re-charlieshrem-re-tracemayer-re-charlieshrem-was-the-launch-of-steem-a-scam-or-the-only-legal-way-thoughts-on-steem-by-charlie-shrem-a-week-later-20160824t005908455z

nice mug

I'm a big Steem supporter and think it is way overvalued. I plan to do a series explaining Steem and also BitShares in terms of equivalent systems where the cash flow is much more obvious.

In short, when you see people complaining about having to re-up on Steem Power because they keep dipping below the free transaction limit, that's when we are at some kind of equilibrium.

I look forward to that series.

So do I.....new to the community but loving every minute of it so far. By the way I just started following the both of you :)

Hi @charlieshrem,

Nice to see you again mate. How is the cuppa? :D

If you take a look at my wallet, you will find my answer to your question.

I wrote this post earlier.

I am completely, 100% investing into SP.

I am happy that you, @charlieshrem, is sitting on his couch, thinking about Steem at 6am.

Why?

It means, I am doing something right, and so is #steemit.

Stick with your SP for now I say. We only launched in July 2016, I think selling your SP now, will be like buying a pizza for 10,000 Bitcoins in 5 years.

Now you don't want to be known as that guy do you?

p.s I will always upvote the shit out of your posts, forever. Because of the injustice that has been handed down to you etc etc. I hope it can show my support, in the only way I can. I remember reading your story years ago, and I felt like I had lost a brother. Respect. One day, I will try to get through that book collection of yours. Hopefully, I don't have the time to.

My journey to the 1 comma club and beyond on Steemit Part 2

;-)

Thank you! You have been providing some great comments :)

I did a video yesterday with some thoughts on the price and how the VEST to Steem Power ratio increases over time. As far as I understand, Steem Power now will get you more VESTs today than they ever will in the future. If you power down X Steem Power using today's ratio and then power up that same X Steem (maybe you purchased it again using bitcoin to avoid dilution), you'll end up with fewer VESTs than you would today because the conversion ratio is changing. You get diluted either way. Powering up now makes the most sense if you think powering up in the future may be a good idea, unless you think the price will drop faster than the dilution rate.

Obviously this is not investment advice, just my thoughts.

My opinion is you decide whether you want to be a part of this experiment long term or not. If you do, then you don't power down until you feel your stake is sufficient for the role you want (at that point you might power down while continuing to earn so as to maintain a desired stake holding). If you don't want to be a part long term, I don't see anything wrong with that, just power down and treat it as part of the income you earned from your successful posts.

My hope is that we find equilibrium someday. I treat the platform as I would any social media platform. The mania phase is coming to an end. The next phase is where the true believers in the platform will shine. That is also the time when the true content producers will come forth and build extensive networks on the platform.

I am not worried about what the whales do. The money is nice but a network where we are rewarded for being nice is even better. This is a first in the world of social media.

I love that some of us are pondering about Steem stuff over coffee, toilet breaks, and long drives :D. Personally i've been buying up Steem power since its 3-4 USD days. Do I regret it? Maybe.. but I'm just gonna keep Steeming forward. Glad that you're in this with us @charlieshrem :)

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