Less than a week ago BTC broke through medium-term support, leaving only medium/long-term and very-long term support remaining.

This post of mine discusses the support levels and the breakdown of the first one: https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/three-levels-of-btc-support-make-that-two-levels.

This week BTC broke through the medium/long-term support too. Now BTC price is only being propped up by the longest-term support level it currently has.

Three levels of BTC support - make that two levels - make that 1 level!

Admission of guilt

Let me start out by saying that I was wrong. This is self-evident, but I want to admit it anyway. I believe that it is important for an analyst to own their mistakes. Sometimes my predictions are open to debate, or they can be shifted a little because TA is always open to interpretation. This time that is not the case. I was clearly wrong. I was not just wrong, I was emphatically wrong! I was wrong in the kind of way that Justin Bieber and the Kardashians being idolised is wrong! It was that bad!

I had argued on many occasions that a capitulation phase was not necessary and was highly unlikely, to the point that I said it wouldn't happen. Many opposed me and I held fast. They were right, I was wrong. My bad. Let shame be heaped upon my head.

Moving on (while enjoying a tasty after dinner slice of humble pie)...

Support! Support! Support!

Let's look at the most recently broken support level first. In my previous post on the topic, I showed this chart and said the following about it:

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

This is the support level that caught today's fall. It's a longer-term level, roughly a year old, that acts as the base or lowest points of the current market cycle.

Depending on exactly which low points in the troughs you wish to use, and which exchange you are using; this level is located in the mid $5000s. I have often referred to a level of around $5750 throughout the year, but today's dip probably went a bit beyond that, digging to the very bottom of the support line (which is not as absolutely rigid and immovable as we would like it to be) at a level of around $5400. It was first formed in October 2017. Scarily this level is being tested as I type...

Should BTC break through support level 2 conclusively, then the often spoken of "capitulation" may well become a reality. This would be a feather in the cap of many analysts who have been calling it for several months. Personally I have been dead against it, seeing no reason for it to occur (and several why it should not). I still see no reason for it to occur, but if it does then those other analysts may well get the sub-$5000 prices they have been predicting. I have always called those price predictions insane, and I still do, but this is crypto and crypto is a very strange animal. Feel free to heap "I told you so" sayings upon my head if that does happen, I'm sticking to my guns and saying that it can't happen. Having said that, I won't be sleeping very soundly tonight!

Well it did break, and now sub $5000 prices are already a reality. I can't tell you exactly how low it will go (we'll look at the remaining support level shortly), but I support the opinions of fellow Timmian Mr @workin2005 again, who is calling a BTC bottom of between $4100 and $4600 (it was written before BTC dropped below $4600, at least for now. Check out his post, it includes a video which explains his thoughts in greater detail.

The remaining support level

The last level of BTC support is a very strong one. It is the long-term level based on the growth of the very technology which underpins cryptocurrencies: blockchain technology. This post (now 8 months old but still 100% applicable) explains why you need not worry about the future of blockchain technology. It's the reason I got into crypto and the reason I believe in it so firmly. I got cocky saying the last level would not break, something I was not absolutely sure of. With blockchain tech I am absolutely sure. The very worst that could happen is that the chart gets "modified" a bit, pushed slightly. This doesn't mean the chart is wrong, just that it is still relatively new and that the limits and direction of market cycles are still being properly established. The general direction is definitely upwards. I'm betting the farm on that (I finished buying in with fiat before the latest dips).

Here is the latest long term support (red trendline) chart:

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Zoomed in it looks like this, though as I said above, don't panic is it "nudges" the red line down a little lower.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

As you can see it is offering support at roughly $4200, very close to where we are trading now. Once again, don't panic if it moves a little. This is not the kind of support that breaks down - unless you believe that blockchain tech as a whole is doomed, which is what a break in this level would imply.

Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:

---

Published on

by Bit Brain

---