English Premier League Goal Expectancies (Gameweek 21)

I thought it might be useful for any bettors/FPL players to share my goal expectancies for the EPL matches in GW21.

The numbers

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Sup
Bournemouth	Everton	1.293900405	1.290434322	2.584334727	0.003466083
Chelsea	Stoke	2.285772403	0.7069628673	2.99273527	1.578809535
Huddersfield	Burnley	0.9360998021	1.139195355	2.075295157	-0.2030955524
Liverpool	Leicester	2.254892347	0.9736108233	3.22850317	1.281281524
Newcastle	Brighton	1.374897344	0.9686630193	2.343560363	0.4062343247
Watford	Swansea	1.526352783	1.069680479	2.596033262	0.4566723033
Man United	Southampton	2.000304175	0.6274536008	2.627757775	1.372850574
Crystal Palace	Man City	0.8535495288	2.239158925	3.092708453	-1.385609396
West Brom	Arsenal	0.9882557464	1.371975082	2.360230828	-0.3837193357

Summary

• My banker for this week is Chelsea at home to Stoke with a goal supremacy value of 1.578.
• I'm predicting the highest scoring game as Liverpool vs Leicester with a tot GE of 3.228.
• Bournemouth vs Everton looks a solid pick for a draw with only 0.003 GE between them!

I hope this comes in useful for some fellow Steemians, and I'm keen to hear from any other hobbyist predictors out there to see how similar our numbers are :).

Thanks for reading!

Adam (acelad)