SBD Tracking BTC!
Truly phenomenal. Steem Dollars have been tracking BTC for the last week and a half, and not just in dollar terms, but in BTC terms as well. This means that SBD is not only directly following BTC, it is outperforming it too!
Take a look at the hourly SBD layover of BTC for the last two weeks!
Again, that's SBD valued in BTC, which means that as they went up together, SBD's gain from 30 November was around 10 times that of BTC in USD terms!
But what's most interesting, in my opinion, is that this highly suggests that the money going into Steem Dollars is coming directly from Bitcoin profits. This is reinforced by the fact that it has fallen as BTC corrected.
There is some very astute Bitcoin selling that is taking SBD very seriously.
Now we've just got to get the word out to them that they'd be better advised buying STEEM. 😅
This is an interesting find. Yet it does not give me the clue why people would want SBD. Why not directly buy steem, it the ultimate goal is power-up on steemit. ?
WHY ?
I am still betting that this SBD rise is made by some shady whales action, who got info - what is coming soon. Especially with SMT being just around the corner.
What do ya think?
I sure hope it's not some shady whales who have got insider info that they want to take advantage of. That would be really nasty and very bad publicity for Steemit. @dragosroua wrote about the idea of a $10.00 peg yesterday... What if that were the plan? Then they'd be buying up SBD knowing they'd have a guaranteed profit? Personally, I doubt it. That would be extremely scammy and would also imply they were the ones buying SBD, and from what I've seen and read, STEEM witnesses are just as surprised by this move as anyone else is. I think this is more likely profit taking by long term BTC early adopters who don't want USDT exposure, or at least want as little as possible, and who are paying a very hefty premium for something they view as safe - which, by the way, would be very good for our reputation since it definitely would bring STEEM to the forefront of secure, solid and reliable crypto.
Short answer, I don't know, I hope not, and based on what I know, I don't think it's too likely, but I wouldn't completely rule it out either.
While I must admit your points are valid and possible, yet I still can not understand why SBD would be the best tool to hedge early BTC investor's profits. Buy something for $12 or $16 which **most likely * will go down to $1.00 ? This is beyond my brain imagination limits...
@onealfa I agree with what yoy say, and logic tells us what you mention. However, SBD has been at $12 and up for more than 10 days by know right? And some people predict (like @haejin), that it will go above $30 soon. This is crazy. Who knows really what is going on. In any case, the one or the ones who are doing this may know they are helping blog posters a lot with rewards with this, or they may not know, and they are just doing this as a way to transfer their BTC profits.
And LTC were will it go now? To $400? What is the short term roof?
Regards, @gold84
PS: By the way, your opinions are very important to my ideas, and you have added in the past to some posts. Would be great to hear comments from you on the last idea about Showing the USD value of posts when hovering the mouse on the SBD payout amount: https://steemit.com/utopian-io/@gold84/lets-show-usd-value-of-posts-when-hovering-above-sbd-post-pay-amount-to-make-it-easier-for-new-visitors-to-see-the-big-rewards
They're expecting it to go even higher. The current "peg" only keeps it from going lower than a dollar. There's nothing capping the upside.
@cryptographic after all I have read and listened about SBD growth this last 7 days, this is a great tecnhical analysis comparison with SBD and Bitcoin, and it shows clear similarities. Very smart from you for noticing this relation, and as you state it shows a clear probability that bitcoin sellers are the ones buying SBD. And for some reason they are buying SBD and not steem.
Something good to take into consideration is that since the system pays in SBD and Steem, and it does not look for the exterior market prices of SBD to calculate rewards, it is a great moment to exchange it for Steem x6 , 7 or even 10 times at some point.
As I read, it happened back in May, something similar with SBD, but it did not last this much.
I also read your opinion to save some SBD, and bitUSD from Bitshares to be prepared for corrections. Perhaps a medium between both is great, because if we can convert 10 SBD into 60 Steem, that is a good deal too power up more steem. Your thoughts on this?
Upvoted.
Regards, @gold84
Yeah, if I had more SBD, I'd most likely buy STEEM right now, but I doubt I'd be buying SBD in order to buy STEEM - I'd buy STEEM directly if that were the case. In regards to having some hedges against a big crypto correction, the USD or Euro equivalents are great instruments for that. I wouldn't be buying SBD at these levels though, but I do have some stink bids in on it.
Very good of you to point out the similar price action last spring! When comparing with STEEM from that same period, it looks like SBD was generally leading the way up, and then when STEEM really got moving, SBD cooled down. That could very possibly happen again.
It will be very interesting to see if the correlation holds between BTC and SBD.
Some are surmising that potentially SBD could make a BTC type move since there are only 3.6M of them out there. While $17,000 might be excessive, could SBD be a $50 or $100 token? Even though it is "pegged" is appears that the market doesnt seem to care about that. It is a debt instrument so does that change things.
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Well, since it's really only pegged from going lower than $1.00USD, there's really nothing from a technical or theoretical point of view keeping it from going as high as market participants are willing to pay for it. As you say, there are only 3.6M of them and they are highly secure - perhaps even more so than BTC - so the sky is the limit.
As a debt instrument, I think the only limitation really is its ratio to STEEM, but that is price independent - the number of SBD relative to STEEM is somewhat fixed, but its price isn't. Theoretically it could be valued anywhere, except below the USD.
But I have just as many questions and just as few answers as everyone else. 😞
Yes a very confusing topic. I just wrote a post about what I decided to do. I figured I would split the fence....play both sides.
Take half of my SBD that come in and power up...keep the other half to see what is going on with them....if they do run, at least I have some on spec yet am taking advantage of the premium to power up some.
A compromise of taking profits.
Damn I think your the only one to realize that, why did sbd just now jump on the bitcoin train.
Probably because those sellers just recently started selling BTC. That having been said, we need to remember that correlations are never exact: they're either strong or weak, or something in between, but this one is pretty strong. There's also room for possible debate as to who's leading whom. 😮
Surely the rise of SBD has taken on a loooot of investment which is definitely a good thing and by that we got to see some profit.I love it.As for BTC it is somehow going hiking again ;),Man how much this tiger is gonna evolve !!
If somehow steem gets high like the way of Sbd it will also be a turning point for all of us .
Thanks buddy for notifying us that new investors are entering and making a move in SBD and we do hope it does happens to Steem as well !
@cryptographic,
"Now we've just got to get the word out to them that they'd be better advised buying STEEM."
You made a great graph analysis again! Look at that as you said SBD is at it's own and act like a boss! Anyway, I like this last advice! Working on it! I think as you said before SBD will never be back to $1 and probably it will PEG for $10 in soon future!
Great article, great analysis which is very useful for all Steemians!
Cheers~
This valuable post and very useful post.thanks for the information
thanks @cryptographic
Have a great day
lots of ups and downs but consistently managing the uptrend even after witness trying their best to make it come under a dollar mark
I think we should allow them to go on buying SBD for some time while pushing the price just a little more. Then whenever we could pick up enough cheap steem with the high valued SBD we tell them about it ;)
@cryptographic - Sir by using this merged graph you explained it very well.... Actually I didn't see that pattern before... Sir do you think BTC will drop more & SBD will follow it's lead? Or this time onward SBD will take the lead & do better than BTC.... Sir I'm thinking to collect SBD, I feel it will go to moon Sir.... Need your expert analysis & guidance Sir...... You are giving us the best lead Sir... Thank for that effort.....
+W+ [UpVoted & ReSteemed]