SteemMonsters: What is the true value of the contents of a Booster Pack?

in steemmonsters •  last month

Hey all! I recently went on a quest to search for the true value of the contents of a booster pack. Obtaining the answer to the question stated in the title was a magnificent journey through the SteemMonsters website, PeakMonsters, Google Spreadsheets & now a statement of my results on Steemit. Here you will be told the true value!

Note

First of all, I have to note that the information about both the amount of cards and the rarity of each card was obtained a couple days ago. During the time that has passed, new packs have been bought and so the statistics may have slightly changed, though I doubt that it has caused any significant differences. Recent market prices are used from within an hour before posting are, therefore, relevant. High/Low prices, especially those of Gold Legendaries are slightly adjusted to fit more long-term trends. The total number of cards is assumed in BCX value, as each card obtained in a card pack initially holds a BCX value of 1.

Information

This is the information I got from PeakMonsters about the amount of monsters/summoners & their rarities:
Common
Regular: 651,338 BCX
Gold: 11,986 BCX
Total: 663,324 BCX

Rare
Regular: 256,550 BCX
Gold: 3961 BCX
Total: 260,511 BCX

Epic
Regular: 52,492 BCX
Gold: 960 BCX
Total: 53,452 BCX

Legendary
Regular: 9908 BCX
Gold: 175 BCX
Total: 10085 BCX

Total
Regular: 970,288 BCX
Gold: 17,082 BCX
Total: 987,370 BCX

For the prices, I took the average price of the monsters & summoners of each rarity separately, due to their obviously wildy different values. Gold is taken separately as well. They are averages, as each monster obviously costs a bit less or more than another. Following are the prices per monster/summoner.

Regular
Common Monster: $0.04
Rare Monster: $0.07
Rare Summoner: $0.28
Epic Monster: $0.25
Legendary Monster: $5.40
Legendary Summoner $10

Gold
Common Monster: $2.50
Rare Monster: $11.50
Rare Summoner: $30
Epic Monster: $45
Legendary Monster: $750
Legendary Summoner: $2000

Calculations

Now I first merged the Monsters with the Summoners for both the Rare & the Legendary rarities. Because the amount of each rare monster is the same as the amount of each rare summoner (same for legendary), this is pretty easy:

Regular Rare: (0.07x15 + 0.28x5)/20 = $0.1225
Regular Legendary: (5.40x8 + 10x1)/9 = $5.91
Gold Rare: (11.50x15 + 30x5)/20 = $16.125
Gold Legendary: (750x8 + 2000x1)/9 = $889

Now, for the total value of all cards, we simply put the prices of each rarity's card for both regular & gold together with its total number of cards & we obtain its value.

Regular
Common: 651,338 x 0.04 = $26,053
Rare: 256,550 x 0.1225 = $31,427
Epic: 52,492 x 0.25 = $13,123
Legendary: 9908 x 5.91 = $58,556

Total Regular: $129,159

Gold
Common: 11,986 x 2.50 = $29,965
Rare: 3961 x 16.125 = $63,871
Epic: 960 x 45 = $43,200
Legendary: 175 x 889 = $155,575

Total Gold: $292,611

Total
Total Cards Value: $421,770
Value per Card: 421,711 / 987,370 = $0.427
Value per Cardpack: 0.427 x 5 = $2.135

Results

The value per Cardpack is therefor on average $2.135.

Other interesting results include:
Legendaries seem to hover around a chance of 1%, whilst Gold Foil seems to hit 1.73% per card.
The above means that any card pack has a 5% chance of containing a Legendary and an 8.85% chance of containing a Gold foil.
Gold Foil Legendaries account for about 37% of the value of Card Packs.

The chance on a Gold Legendary is about 0.0173% per card and 0.0885% per cardpack. You're expected to get one of them approximately every 1130 packs.

Note, however, that selling these cards for these prices may offer more of a problem and that luck is a key factor here. As you see in the calculations, $155,575 out of the $421,770 belongs to the value of Gold Legendaries. Even if you buy 1000 packs, the chance that you'll get one is actually only about 59%. If you get one, it can sell for $750 or even much higher. This may take some time, however, as the gold legendary market usually includes at most a couple sales per day.

Conclusion

Buy packs if you're feeling lucky & simply like it. In theory, it offers about 5% profit, but this profit is very hard to claim. Therefore, buying Card Packs is not a very good way of making quick money. On the short-term, you're more likely to lose money from it, rather than winning it.

Pizzachain's Idea

In my opinion, it's a better idea to buy cards straight off the market. Currently, many cards are being listed on the market at very underpriced heights. $0.03 commons are a very relevant example.

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You have a minor misspelling in the following sentence:

Recent market prices are used from within an hour before posting are, therefor, relevant.
It should be therefore instead of therefor.

·

Good bot :)

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I agree with you, the people who doesn't have huge budgets can't afford a pack expecting profits, that is reserved for those who buy huge amounts of packs like 150 an so on. It's much better for the first mentioned to buy individually.

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great calculation... happy you did it else I had to do it.. ;-)
the difference to my rough estimate:
I calculated gold foils with a probability of 1% (source the video minnow town hall meeting) where as in reality it is close to 2%.
Also the major impact of gold legendarys alone surpassing all the cheap cards was not cleat to me.. hence I am of by a factor of 3 to 4...
but as you already explained... you need to buy many packs to make use of normal probability distribution and if you consider that the pack prices are fixed in USD the deal would be twice as good if steem doubles in price back to 2 USD...

This is a very good calculation. I have noticed that the price of the pack is still cheap.