Epics are more valuable than Legendaries ?? - An analysis.steemCreated with Sketch.

in #steemmonsters2 years ago

I was checking out the Steemmonsters market page, trying to find the next best monster card to invest in. Hoping to find the next Lord Arianthus, cards that will soon be out of print, becomes rare and grow in demand.

Then I wonder "How many maxed levelled of each card will there ever be?"

If the game continues to grow and reach many thousands more players, we will see more and more maxed cards. Everyone will want to have their hands on the strongest cards and compete at the top of the leaderboard.

Especially as Beta is selling out, I decided to focus on the Neutral cards. These cards does not exist in Alpha so they are even rarer.

I am assuming and using very simple method of calculation to determine the estimated total BCX of each card when Beta packs are all sold out. Using numbers from Peakmonsters, I get the current BCX, divide it by Packs Sold and multiply by the Total Beta Packs of 900000. Here are the sampling results:
image.png

First observation is that there will be more maxed Rare cards than Common cards. This is because there are fewer variations of Rares and its drop rate is 20%.

But what surprised me was that, hypothetically, there will be fewer maxed Epics than Legendary. From the result, there will be an estimated 217 maxed Raging Impaler compared to 300 maxed Hydra. These are just estimation and assuming all cards are levelled up to max.

It's even more surprising to see the data for Gold Foils. 20 maxed Impaler and 18 maxed Hydra.

Checking the market, price for a GF Hydra is 10 times more than a GF Impaler. Does this mean that Epic GFs are severely undervalued? I mean, there will only be 20 maxed version of it.

I believe this is the result of Legendary and Alchemy Potions inflating the Legendaries cards. Suddenly, we are seeing many more Legendary cards entering circulation.

image.png

Suddenly, droprate of Legendary are now 1.6% (with potions), while Epics are just 4%.
For golds, 0.064% for GFL and 0.16% for GFEpics.
That is just 2.5x more.
We need 10 bcx Epics to max. 4 bcx Legendaries to max. Thats about 2.5x too.
Looking at this, doesn't it mean that GF Epics are as valuable as GF Legendaries too?

I am not sure how accurate this analysis is. There must be some mistakes or areas which I did not consider, but the result should not be too far off.

It might be a good move to start investing in Epics cards now! Even the market is reflecting that. Price for Epics are slowly going up. Perhaps we should not focus solely on the legendaries. Epics can be a good choice too!

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