[Study] 1000+ Steem Monster Packs Spreadsheet [with Proof of Work] Juni 2018 ALPHA

in #steemmonster2 years ago (edited)

[Study] 1000+ Steem Monster Packs Statistics [Spreadsheet with Proof of Work] Part 1

Hello everyone, today I want to share the results of my 1000+ Steem monsters Pack opening study.
What I decided to do was to analyze Pack Openings from Dlive Livestreams between June 1st and June 4th and to determine what kinds of chances you actually have to get something good when opening @steemmonsters packs.
In total, I collected data from 1000 packs and put them in a spreadsheet to find out the odds for everyone who is interested to play, trade, collect or sell packs and cards.
It took me a while to get this data together, hope you like this idea behind this study.

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1. Important Criteria

I only recorded data from Livestreams with at least 10+ packs being opened, to remove the distortion effect from single packs.
This was important to be sure that they weren't only uploaded because they got a rare card.
The main source was Dlive with over 98% proportion.
There was one exception the last 9 packs I had to open offline because I couldn't find more openings with the criteria mentioned above- and the goal was to get data from 1000 packs (and to start my collection) .
You can find all sources in my spreadsheet at the end of this post.

2. Distribution of 5000 cards

[Attention: you will find odds per Pack in the next table under No.3, this statistic shows ONLY the Distribution if you would own 5000 cards]

RARITYQuantityPercentage
Total cards5000100%
Common(grey)341868.36%
Rare (blue)123224.64 %
Epic (purple)2815.62 %
Legendary(gold)691.38%

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3. The most important Odds + probability in % per Pack

Type of PackX times from 1000 sample sizeOdds in % for each packaverage amount of packs you you need to open
1 Rare+4 commons (worst pack)44344.3 %2.25
at least 1 Epic26126.1 %3.85
at least 1 Legendary (any combination)696.9 %14.50
at least 2 Epics171.7 %58.80
at least 2 Legendaries0< 0.1 %a lot
1 Legendary + at least 1 Rare313.1 %32.25
1 Legendary + at least 1 Epic121.2 %83.30
1 Lgendary + 2 Rare90.9 %111.00
1 legendary + 4 commons212.1 %47.60

4. First conclusion

In each pack, you will find always 5 cards.
One of them is always at least better than „common“.
Worst Pack you can get is a set of 4 common and one rare card.
On average you need to open 14.5 packs to get 1 Legendary Card.
Every 4th pack should contain an epic card.
And most likely every 2nd pack (44.3%) will be the worst possible pack [4 commons+1 rare]

The interesting thing is that it seems to be more likely to get 1 Legendary with a 1 rare card than „just“ 1 Legendary card (with 4 commons).
Another statistic says that once you have an Epic card on your screen the chance to get a legend in this pack is around 1.2%.

5. More Interesting odds [sorted by different types of pack combinations].

Type of PackX times from 1000 sampleOdds in %
1 Rare (worst pack)44344.3 %
at least 1 Legendary (any combination)696.9 %
1 Rare + 1 Epic676.7 %
1 Rare + 2 Epic60,6 %
1 Rare + 3 Epic10.1 %
2 Rares17717.7 %
2 Rares + 1 Epic393.9 %
2 Rares + 2 Epics20.2 %
3 Rares555.5 %
3 Rare + 1 Epic111.1 %
4 Rares60.6 %
5 Rares10.1 %
at least 1 Epic26126.1 %
at least 2 Epics171.7 %
3 Epics30.3 %
3 Epics + 1 Rare10.1 %
4 Epics0< 0.1 %
5 Epics0< 0.1 %

Notice : Obviously these numbers will not be exact, but given the sample size I believe they should give a pretty good first impression of the odds. [June 2018]
More data need to be collected to get more accurate results.

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6. Sources | Spreadsheet with Proof of Work

You can find all sources in my spreadsheet. Klick on picture or link here
Example: user [X] pulled on Stream [Livestream Name+ Platform] at Minute a Legendary card Named [x]
For the moment you are able to read the Excel document online [read Access]; use filter options to play around with it
Screenshot (78).png

law_trennlinie.png

If this is your first time hearing about Steem Monsters, I strongly suggest visiting their official steemit account @steemmonsters for more details. You can also check out their website at:
https://steemmonsters.com


If you have spare cards feel free to send them to @tzap90 😃
Thx for reading! good luck with your packs!
Comment ; Upvote ; Resteem if you like this post
05/06/2018
@tzap90


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Hey @aggroed do you need anyone to work on development or game development? I played m:tg at a semi-pro level (got top 4 at a pro tour qualifier) for almost a decade. Also software dev with 4 years experience, and big into the crypto space as well.

Great job with collection data and presenting it in an understandable way! I have been looking for this information for a few days now, so this was perfect for me. Thanks!

[email protected], it was important to have first solid stats, I'm glad if it helps you!

Yeah, it's great to have these stats. Now I can finally know what to expect when I open packs.

My motto:

Listen, smile, agree, and then do whatever you were gonna do anyway.

Alter Schwede! Das ist gerade äußerst hilfreich. Danke!

Great work. I was wondering when this would get done. Are you into stats at all? I imagined applying standard deviation and natural distribution analysis to this. If you want some help I could dust off the schoolbooks and give a hand....

would be definitely interesting to work on these stats, the only problem is that it takes a lot of time to do this manually took me almost 4 days to finish this small project 😃

For the legendaries, I ran a regression and also calculated some descriptive stats using excel!

Im sleeping now, I can explain stats tomorrow!

Awesome work @tzap90! I assume all Legendary or Epic cards have the same distribution or are some Legendary and Epic cards harder to get?

I have collected data as well will probably make a short post tomorrow or you can check the spreadsheet

I really like to see your post, a very good post, thank you friends.

way cool... super happy we have some solid researchers in the game!

Great work, thank you!

I'm glad if it helps you !
freut mich wenn es dir weiterhilft !

Excellent.... I had to buy Starter + 20 Booster packs to get my 1st Legendary.

This is great !!

Am closely watching what you do sir and how you have been helping people out in this comunity. Thanks for all you do.

Just opened 110 packs, 3 legendaries. Looks like RNG was not in my favor.

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