@haejin 's olympic rewards unjustified? A look at the outcome of his predictions

in #steemit5 years ago (edited)

Hello Steemiacs,


 the flagging war between @berniesanders and @haejin has been going on for a few weeks already – for too long for my taste. It's certainly hurting the community. And I don't want to take sides here. I upvoted some of bernie's posts and was skeptical of haejin's predictions. Personally, I find the exorbitant rewards, that @haejin has been getting, unfair, as well. However @berniesanders has gotten very high rewards for his rants, himself.

 The question I asked myself during all of this is: How much of a scammer is @haejin?   

 First, I took a look at his blog history. I could scroll down only as far as his posts from the end of November 2017 appeared, although he has been blogging since July 2017. (Why isn't there a proper blog history option on Steemit? How about throwing some investment into development of a feature like that instead of flagging left and right.)

 As far as I can tell, since there are no dates attached to steemit posts, @haejin has been relentlessly publishing a few posts per day already in November and was getting rather modest awards (somewhere in the 20-40$ / payout range). Then, all of a sudden, coinciding with the truly insane spike in SBD and later STEEM prices, his post rewards exploded about a month ago. Since then, he has been living the royal life on Steemit. 

 Are these high rewards, that are said to comprise 1% of the total rewards pool, in any manner justified? Has he deserved these payouts based on his previous work? To my sense, the high rewards would only be justified if @haejin made a large contribution to the wealth and well-being of the Steemit community; like a true king.

 The well-being of Steemit is certainly compromised right now, due to the rebellion that has arisen. However, we can take a look at whether @haejin has contributed to the propagation of the wealth of Steemians.

 In the second step, therefore, I made a crude analysis of @haejin's predictions of the prices of various altcoins that he speculated in his sequential end-of-November posts.

 Here is a table summary of 15 altcoins with their predicted BTC and USD prices in the near-to-middle term (left), their price peaks in the following 6 weeks (center) and their current prices as of January 18th (right).

 The analysis is a little tricky since we can look at either the BTC and USD prices, and the relationship between BTC and USD has a huge effect on the price development of alts. I decided to go with the benefit of the doubt and credit @haejin with a correct prediction if either the BTC or USD price were in the actually reached price range.

 Out of these 15 oracles, only the BTG (Bitcoin Gold) prediction was completely off, i.e. you might have lost in USD value if you had invested in it, depending on your entry.

 I am giving a yellow flag to five predictions (XVG, VIB, XLM, NXT, EMC2) since you would have sold too early if you would have sold at the predicted price. I set a cut-off at more than doubling of the actual price since the recommended exit. Well, this is less of a problem since you still would have multiplied your investment, and I haven't taken into account that @haejin has posted updates based on the price development in real-time.

 Nine predictions were in the correct range. Out of these, three have “only” hit their USD target value (XZC, MAID and ETC). For two (NXS and MUSIC), @haejin's prediction was scarily on spot.

 Of course, the caveat is, that in a raging bull market, eventually, almost all coins will have had their pump chance, and therefore, it might not surprise seeing the prices shooting up that much. 

 Still, I find @haejin's predictions impressively successful and his optimism during these days was certainly able to resist all the available FUD and help his followers grow their portfolio.

 I have looked at some of his longer-term predictions from a week ago and summarized them here: 

 I am surprised by the projected IOTA and TRX prices, since this would put them somewhere in front of Ethereum and Ripple's current marketcaps. This would require a growth of the total crypto marketcap to at least two Trillion USD and/or severe outcompeting of other crypto players by IOTA and TRX. But who knows, maybe this further, insane growth is where we are heading this year?

 All in all, I am impressed by @haejin's analyses. He is definitely not a scammer. Maybe, he has earned the high rewards. Maybe, there should be a limit on posts/day that are entitled to a payout (max. 3?). And perhaps, I should pay more attention to his current predictions when it comes to my trading decisions.

 Anyhow, I will not take part in any further destructive measures from either side and I hope the flagging war ends ASAP.



~~~ PEACE~~~

Yours, @replichara



Images (1) and (4) taken from Pixabay

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I've been following Haejin for many months now and he's definitely not been accurate with his trade calls. He uses Elliot Wave which I believe is meant for more traditional markets. I also don't think he's a scammer as he isn't out there pushing products nor does he have a large enough following to move markets (IMO). The person known best for his price predictions would be Clif High (more fundamental than technical). I also follow Tone Vays and Node Investor for technical price analysis but all in all.....technical analysis I don't believe works well in a market that is ballooning and only has 1% global market participation. trend lines are very difficult to establish when the markets don't have a baseline and you can easily break out or break down when new entrants panic sell, fomo buy, or cause massive bog downs in exchanges and networks when they enter enmasse (happens every few months). It's still good to get multiple different perspectives from people that are analyzing the markets and why they believe markets will move up or down.

Fundamental analysis tends to lead people towards hodl mentality, which probably beats most traders in markets like these.

The guy seems to be analyzing these coins all day. He's already putting in the work, and I assume people would rather see his analysis than have no analysis at all. I'm cool with him making some crypto for the works he's put in. If he was just putting out bullshit and making bank, that'd be a different story.

I'm in the camp of crypto is booming, we should all be aggresively capitalizing off of it to be financially free!

I appreciate your opinion! I know someone who seems to be pretty successful in applying the Elliot Waves theory to his day-trading and, at least in retrospective, you can often clearly see the wave patterns, so there is definitely something to the theory.
I totally agree that the crypto space is way too unpredictable and manipulatable for technical analysis to work reliably or as reliably as it can.
I am following Node investor as well and I believe he is the one I learned the most from. Haven't heard of Clif High yet. His tweets are mostly non-crypto related. Has he shifted focus?

Clif High created this program called the web bot and pioneered predictive linguistics. His web bot pretty much scours the web for words and phrases and gives them rankings based on their emotional tone value. Based how many times a word comes in in xyz forums, twitter, facebook, etc. and how they come up, his bot is able to project how likely xyz will happen and when. He used to cover everything from politics (election outcomes), earthquakes/weather, economics, financial markets, geo politics, and crypto. He's been calling BTC, ETH, LTC price movements for over 12 months on a general level for the most part and nailing them. He's calls some exact price targets now and then but not often.

His report had Populous, Veritaseum, AdEx, Centra, TenX all as great ICO investments based on his predictive linguistics. He's very well known in the space but because his web bot covers many different things and he's only recently shifted focus entirely to crypto, people often think he's crazy. He's not 100% accurate but he's the most accurate i've seen in the space. If you're a fan of numbers, trend lines, support, resistance, he doesn't provide much of them.

I explain briefly what he does in the video below.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@stonecryptonews/who-to-follow-for-crypto-news-on-youtube-and-twitter-crypto-tutorial-episode-10

Ah, I definitely have to check him out then. Thanks for the elaborate explanation!

Seriously good workflow and comprehensive analysis of a touchy subject.

And as a true scientist, you have done the analysis without the involvement of unnecessary emotions.

Thanks :-) While I do get emotional on these matters, I try to remind myself to look at the facts first, and then reevaluate my emotional reaction.

Interesting analysis. If his market analysis is really that good, then, it warrants big payouts. I do, however, feel that he could squeeze all his information into 1-2 posts per day. He is really trying to milk it, in my opinion. I like your idea of a post limit.

That's true. I also see that he is reluctant to change any of that while he is being attacked in such a manner. Being stubborn just because he can. Eventually, one party will have to submit, or a third party to step in.

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