Exchange Transfer Report: 10/2/2016 to 10/8/2016

in stats •  2 years ago

exchange_transfer_report9fade.png

The Top 50 Accounts Transferring to and from Exchanges

Dan and Ned: If you see this, please also read my question below the commentary. Thanks.

USD values are calculated per day via API feeds from poloniex (for STEEM and SBD values in BTC) and coindesk (for USD value of BTC). For the hourly breakdown graphs, I show the USD values using the weighted average for that day. For the top 50 reports in USD terms, I then took the average USD value for STEEM and SBD for the week using the daily average which came out to:

  • STEEM: $0.41880
  • SBD: $0.92394

Previous Report:

  • STEEM: $0.52926
  • SBD: $0.90336

Assumptions

Please see the first report for a detailed explanation of my personal assumptions related to what this data could mean (along with commentary on previous reports). What it does not show is people powering up, powering down, or if they are buying or selling on an exchange. It's just some interesting data dealing with transfers to and from exchange accounts.

Previous Reports

Exchange Transfer Activity from 10/02/2016 to 10/08/2016

First included transfer: 2016-10-02T00:28:39+00:00
Last included transfer: 2016-10-08T23:59:15+00:00


----------------------------- Exchanges ------------------------------

@poloniex STEEM transfer total: 405,302.402
@poloniex SBD transfer total: -31,785.775
@bittrex STEEM transfer total: -102,706.623
@bittrex SBD transfer total: 12,110.689
@blocktrades STEEM transfer total: 1,873.899
@blocktrades SBD transfer total: 8,011.184
@openledger STEEM transfer total: -1,744.812
@openledger SBD transfer total: -484.000
@hitbtc-exchange STEEM transfer total: 4.318
@hitbtc-exchange SBD transfer total: -194.017
@hitbtc-payout STEEM transfer total: -5.284
@hitbtc-payout SBD transfer total: 753.678
@changelly STEEM transfer total: -11,797.301
@changelly SBD transfer total: 3,383.286

------------------------- Total Transferred --------------------------

Total STEEM transferred: -290,926.599
Total SBD transferred: 8,204.955
Total USD transferred: ($   114,257.99)

--------------------- Withdrawl to Deposit Ratio ---------------------

Accounts withdrawing: 756
Average withdrawal amount: ($       319.30)
Median withdrawal amount: ($        21.24)

Accounts depositing: 192
Average deposit amount:  $       168.16
Median deposit amount:  $        43.81

Ratio of withdrawals to deposits: 3.94/1

TOP 50 WITHDRAWALS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@steemfest:($ 35,938.01)
2@steemed:($ 10,910.33)
3@fairytalelife:($ 10,225.85)
4@ned:($ 9,172.03)
5@val-a:($ 8,375.92)
6@smooth-c:($ 8,267.30)
7@berniesanders:($ 6,781.10)
8@furion:($ 4,916.61)
9@rainman:($ 4,888.11)
10@steempower:($ 4,401.73)
11@wayfairer:($ 4,308.33)
12@summon:($ 4,207.91)
13@tomoaki:($ 3,383.87)
14@charlieshrem:($ 3,365.17)
15@bitfilm:($ 3,210.04)
16@help-yourself:($ 2,882.61)
17@pharesim:($ 2,764.06)
18@cloop1:($ 2,761.96)
19@complexring:($ 2,598.24)
20@jacor:($ 2,588.87)
21@ozchartart:($ 2,587.03)
22@kush:($ 2,358.03)
23@anastacia:($ 2,295.19)
24@riverhead:($ 2,243.68)
25@nextgencrypto:($ 2,175.25)
26@wang:($ 2,107.38)
27@ani625:($ 2,013.31)
28@steemrollin:($ 1,869.49)
29@xeroc:($ 1,847.88)
30@storyseeker:($ 1,706.22)
31@marius19:($ 1,675.18)
32@brunopro:($ 1,669.72)
33@perspective:($ 1,561.20)
34@steemq-funds:($ 1,515.50)
35@silversteem:($ 1,494.28)
36@drunchpunk:($ 1,377.79)
37@kushed:($ 1,375.65)
38@dele-puppy:($ 1,302.46)
39@ericvancewalton:($ 1,284.39)
40@sirwinchester:($ 1,273.04)
41@paws1t1veev:($ 1,193.98)
42@jesta:($ 1,175.22)
43@knozaki2015:($ 1,129.35)
44@kencode:($ 1,099.70)
45@calaber24p:($ 1,098.91)
46@abdul:($ 1,058.31)
47@infovore:($ 1,026.50)
48@tinfoilfedora:($ 1,026.15)
49@recursive:($ 999.04)
50@sweetsssj:($ 975.76)

TOP 50 DEPOSITS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@smooth-d:$ 14,598.22
2@clayop:$ 6,552.06
3@fyrstikken:$ 6,396.31
4@ioc:$ 6,102.73
5@luckyguy:$ 5,867.31
6@thisvsthis:$ 5,866.03
7@abdullar:$ 5,335.88
8@ramta:$ 5,026.37
9@cass:$ 4,042.07
10@nanzo-scoop:$ 3,278.68
11@goldenunicorn:$ 3,271.56
12@inchonbitcoin:$ 3,045.54
13@james-show:$ 2,604.99
14@dimimp:$ 2,604.84
15@roland-hicks:$ 2,520.41
16@coldstorage1:$ 2,373.50
17@vortac:$ 2,345.31
18@booja:$ 2,079.38
19@sunsallo:$ 2,048.41
20@jsg:$ 1,997.52
21@dongu:$ 1,990.44
22@oldtimer:$ 1,973.86
23@smooth-f:$ 1,676.69
24@tommycoin:$ 1,636.42
25@leesunmoo:$ 1,552.93
26@secom:$ 1,424.99
27@onceuponatime:$ 1,379.27
28@robrigo:$ 1,367.86
29@albensilverberg:$ 1,268.99
30@screenname:$ 1,194.36
31@renohq:$ 1,170.79
32@thecryptofiend:$ 1,058.55
33@naver:$ 942.96
34@morning:$ 865.97
35@inertia:$ 837.59
36@paquito:$ 837.58
37@dubi:$ 810.70
38@very:$ 796.49
39@twinner:$ 695.78
40@freewallet.org:$ 684.97
41@ssm1810:$ 670.66
42@cryptos:$ 667.67
43@ramblin-bob:$ 642.79
44@ayawaska:$ 609.73
45@dgiors:$ 586.31
46@shaka:$ 549.24
47@steemitsocial:$ 543.54
48@jyp:$ 537.81
49@clauca23:$ 536.11
50@unosuke:$ 535.33

Hourly Breakdown by Exchange

Here are the hourly breakdowns for the past week as interactive graphs. The code I use to get this data is on Github if you want to poke at it yourself.

STEEM


click the image for an interactive graph

SBD


click the image for an interactive graph

USD


click the image for an interactive graph

Commentary

  • For the second week in a row we've seen a drop in the ratio of withdraws to deposits at 3.94 to 1! Could this be a new trend? Previous ratios:

    • 4.80 to 1
    • 5.44 to 1
    • 5.00 to 1
    • 4.41 to 1
    • 4.01 to 1
    • 3.85 to 1
    • 3.85 to 1
    • 3.09 to 1
    • 3.42 to 1
  • Let's state the obvious: The price of steem is still falling. Where will it settle? No one knows, but it did hang around twenty something cents for a while prior to July (though the supply of STEEM is much higher now).

  • @steemfest cashing out to prep for the conference, maybe?

  • @smooth-c took out a nice amount while @smooth-d topped the list this week on deposits.

  • No withdrawal from @dantheman this week. Interesting.

  • Last week's STEEM total: -337,567 (-101,063 if you exclude @steemit2), this week is -290,926.

  • Another positive amount of SBD going from exchanges to Steemit accounts at 8,204, though much less than last week.

Question for @ned and @dan / @dantheman:

The #price channel on steemit.chat is one of my favorites. Lots of interesting discussion not just on the current price, but also the future value of the platform. One question that comes up again and again goes something along the lines of "What the hell are Dan and Ned thinking, dumping on the markets with an early startup like this?" Okay, so maybe it's not really a question, but more of a completely unveiled criticism.

It's still a valid question.

As a bootstrapped business owner of 9+ years, I also wonder, why are you regularly pulling ~$10k each on your personal accounts out of such an early startup? Many startup owners don't take a salary for years (myself included). Dan gave an explanation a month ago in a comment, but that doesn't seem to satisfy many investors in the price channel. I think it's a rational decision to diversify, but is it a good long term one for a startup founder?

Without direct answers about your selling activity which is regularly defined as "dumping" via members of the price channel, all we have to go on is speculation (often negative while the perceived value tanks). I'd love to hear a more detailed explanation of your selling strategy (and that of @steemit and @steemit2 as well) which may bring more confidence to investors both past, present, and future.

Obviously, you don't have to do anything and can keep on dumping in silence. Maybe your goal is to make it easier for new whales to enter the market by driving the price down. Maybe you're so confident in your world domination strategy that you don't care at all what happens in the short term. If that's the case, I'm still confused by the dumping. And I'm not alone in that confusion.

If you do decide to answer, thank you in advance.

Steem On!
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Hello @lukestokes,

Yes, big accounts are all powering down and selling and this of course drives the price down but I also believe there is a psychological aspect to the downtrend, I talked more about this on my post: Why Is the price is falling?

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Thanks for sharing, @chitty.

The fun thing about pricing... there's always psychology involved. :)

Great to see the beginning of a trend the other way possibly developing. There is a price at which it no longer makes sense to be a seller. I'm looking forward to learning what that price is. My only concern with the falling price is falling morale of the community.

Superbly worded question. Thanks for asking it.

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Thanks, Jason! I really appreciate your opinion on how that was worded.

Those who are into Steemit for the long term and have some crypto experience probably won't flinch too much. I've seen bitcoin do some crazy things over the years and now we have something new: three different currencies with different properties all wrapped up in a decentralized social media platform (with new side chain ideas springing up all the time) and a coming decentralized marketplace in the future.

Morale is what we make of it. If people rage quit, I still think there are plenty others who will be blown away to make any money at all on their social media activities.

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This. I see people complaining they make only 20-50 dollars a post but I'm amazed by that same fact. I'll see this one to the end.

I suspect @dan and @ned are taking a leaf out of Vitalik’s book. Vitalik openly sold 25% of his Ethereum in April.

My view is that if the founders want to sell some of their personal stash for whatever reason, that’s their prerogative. I don’t think the current slump in price can be attributed to them, there are lots factors at play from what I can see.

Personally I’ve learned not to sell low nor buy high. I’ll ride out this downturn and pick up a few coins on the way. I still think the fundamentals of the coin are strong; also I have a high tolerance for risk and a bucket load of patience.

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I still think the fundamentals of the coin are strong; also I have a high tolerance for risk and a bucket load of patience.

Well said. That's the only way to play the crypto game. I too agree this is an amazing coin and platform.

I don’t think the current slump in price can be attributed to them, there are lots factors at play from what I can see.

User retention, active users, user growth, etc.. those definitely have an important impact on the price. At the same time, I've been doing these exchange reports for a while now and when I see people talking in the price channel over and over again about the dumps on exchanges which I also see in my data, I have to wonder how influential their actions are. If every price rally is slammed down with a huge dump, that can turn off a lot of investors (especially when it's the startup founders doing the dumping).

That's a great article, thanks for sharing. I loved this part:

Andreas Antonopoulos is the voice of reason in this discussion

And in many others. I really hope he chimes in on Steemit soon.

Maybe Vitalik’s actions hurt Ethereum also. Unfortunately there's no way (yet) to run multiple versions of reality in simulations to figure out what the Nash equilibrium could have been.

Thanks for great report as usual. Your comments and thoughts about steem internal cooking is most valuable. Please consider to publish total transfers week-to-week evolution graphs.
I think STEEM inflation is by design. A huge supply (800 STEEM/minute or 8M per week) inevitably cause a price drop. The only way to keep your investments from diluting is to constantly increase the earnings by post rewards.

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Holding Steem Power helps, but yeah, post rewards are the way to go.

Hmm... I like the idea of a week to week graphs. I've collected enough data now to be able to do that. Good idea.

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Holding SP is not increasing your VESTS. Waiting for new content! :)

I love your reports. Great info and comments. I to wonder what the founders end game is.

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Hopefully they have no endgame beyond building Steemit into something amazing. The best founders are on a mission to change the world in some positive way, and I want to believe Ned and Dan fit that category.

I want to believe.

Thanks for posting this and voicing concerns of many. Interesting to see what will happen; will steem price and volume end up along with bitshare, previous project of Dan, and was that the plan all along. Time will tell.

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Some I know think bitshares is still a really great project, no matter what the price is. I haven't been involved myself enough to know. As you say, time will tell.

As a bootstrapped business owner of 9+ years, I also wonder, why are you regularly pulling ~$10k each on your personal accounts out of such an early startup?

I myself fear the bitcoiners may be right, that Steem may just be a glorified scam coin disguised as a startup. Not sure @dan and @ned give a damn about the hardworking folks who invested their hard EARNED money into STEEM Power, only to see it endlessly lose value in a downward spiral of death. Really sad IF this is the case (I hope it is not). Time will tell the truth, and reputations will proceed one's self.

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I've had an occasional doubt here and there, but when I read Dan's posts and review is blog, the books he's read, the philosophical stance he has on how to improve the world, etc, etc... I want to believe he's like an Elon Musk making decisions people think are crazy at the time, only to be proven right in the long term. I really hope that is the case. I also know that I'm biased because I too have invested, and I want to believe I made a good investment.

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I really do hope you are right. Is that $10k total, or $10k weekly? $10k weekly sounds like jumping ship, but who knows.

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Yep, around $10k each weekly. Check the previous reports I link to above.

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Wow, that's some big bucks. Not helping allieviate sell pressure on the token value for sure. That's a shame.

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I think they want to get Steem power in the hands of non whales. If I was them I would just power up random people who post. I used to think these guys were amazing marketeers among many other strong suites but now I don't think so. That initial payout was brilliant marketing. I think giving ten steem dollars to most active users (vote plus comment plus post) each week would do a lot more for the system than swelling on the open market.

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Hopefully it all works out eventually, so the platform isn't here today and gone tomorrow.

Missing @shapeshiftio on the exchange list I think? Probably small but I'm not sure.

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Thanks @smooth. I just ran part of it again to see how it might change things:

@shapeshiftio STEEM transfer total: -999.108
@shapeshiftio SBD transfer total: 1.500

Seems to be more active than the hitbtc accounts. Maybe I'll combine those and add shapeshift.io to the next report. Thanks again!

So ; if Steemians are selling , who is buying ?

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The price drop would argue not many. I think the better answer is future Steemians.

Jup @lukestokes, unfortunately we (@steemfest) had to cash out SBD to BTC to EUR, as most of the conference needs to be paid in EUR.

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Nothing unfortunate about that, IMO. It's nice to know there was enough volume so you could do that without having to pay for things out of pocket at a loss.

Now if we could all pay for things directly in SBD or STEEM... now that would be nice. :)

Well done as usual.

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Thank you! The continued support is very encouraging.

Great post! Thanks for sharing! I was hoping we would hear from either Ned or Dan... Like other posters mentioned they can sell for whatever reason they see fit, but instilling some confidence in the currency would be a great thing to do right about now...

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Hi @lukestokes - I don't know if Dan/Ned will see this post and/or reply, but I will suggest that the premise of them cashing out for their own personal gain is probably wrong.

I know they are hiring for several new Steemit Inc. positions, and they already have several employees on the books. I also suspect that since they are doing Steem/it stuff 24x7, they probably don't have other jobs, and might need something to pay for food, rent, etc.

I know when there is silence, it is easy to speculate in the negative direction, but it is just as easy to think of good reasons behind what they are doing too :)

I know we are all concerned about the price. My personal theory is that it will probably take 1-2 more years for the site to be improved, before we really start to see some serious investments coming in.

In the meantime, I suggest we enjoy the ride, and make the most of what is here :)

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They don't need $10k a week (each) for food and rent. I know it's temping to justify their actions based on our own biases, but it's pretty clearly very unusual behavior for early startup founders who believe the future value of their platform will be many orders of magnitude higher than it is now (as most founders believe, or they wouldn't do what they do).

There might be a really great expectation. I'm just not sure what it is and I'd rather hear it from them directly then continue speculating about it. I've defended them often on steemit chat, but I'd prefer they value this discussion in the community and address the concerns directly.

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I do agree that more communication and transparency would go a long way. I'm not saying you don't, and I know that investors will not invest purely on that, but for me it comes down to trust. I trust that Dan and Ned have good intentions, and are doing what they feel is best with the money.

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I trust that Dan and Ned have good intentions, and are doing what they feel is best with the money.

If that's true (and I also believe or at least really, really want to believe it is), I'd hope they could be open and honest about their reasons.

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For some reason they are largely choosing to remain silent about a lot of things. While I agree this has really bad implications for both the community and potential investors, I again go back to trusting that they know what they are doing.

It's 100% pure speculation, but it could be to protect themselves from any potential risk of misleading investors. Dan has publicly said before that he did not provide information about what they were planning/doing (in a different context) for that very reason.

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Interesting. I wonder if there are legal ramifications we haven't considered.

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I enjoy the ride in silence .....