Bundesliga 21 - 22 Apr Predictions

in #sports6 years ago (edited)

Last week was a good week for the model, getting 6/8 predictions correct. Hopefully this week will be as good.

Predictions

MatchPredictionOddsOutcome
Frankfurt vs Hertha BerlinFrankfurt1.95L
Hamburg vs FreiburgDraw3.29L
Hannover vs Bayern MunichBayern1.44W
RB Leipzig vs HoffenheimDraw3.75L
Stuttgart vs Werder BremenDraw3.39L
Dortmund vs LeverkusenDortmund2.29W
Augsburg vs MainzDraw3.29L
Koln vs SchalkeSchalke2.00L

Update: Crazy week so far with 3 matches having red cards. Only 2/6 which is basically random monkey throwing at darts.

Talk about mean reversion.... longer term the model gets only about 50-60% predictions correct and after last week's good set of results, we come crashing back down to earth lol.

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What kind of model are you using?

A manual one for now. For the bigger leagues, i assign weights to each team based on:

Number of days between matches
Squad value
Home/Away form
Manager H2H

Squad value isn't useful in the smaller leagues though.

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