Bundesliga 21 - 22 Apr Predictions
Last week was a good week for the model, getting 6/8 predictions correct. Hopefully this week will be as good.
Predictions
Match | Prediction | Odds | Outcome |
---|---|---|---|
Frankfurt vs Hertha Berlin | Frankfurt | 1.95 | L |
Hamburg vs Freiburg | Draw | 3.29 | L |
Hannover vs Bayern Munich | Bayern | 1.44 | W |
RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim | Draw | 3.75 | L |
Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Draw | 3.39 | L |
Dortmund vs Leverkusen | Dortmund | 2.29 | W |
Augsburg vs Mainz | Draw | 3.29 | L |
Koln vs Schalke | Schalke | 2.00 | L |
Update: Crazy week so far with 3 matches having red cards. Only 2/6 which is basically random monkey throwing at darts.
Talk about mean reversion.... longer term the model gets only about 50-60% predictions correct and after last week's good set of results, we come crashing back down to earth lol.
What kind of model are you using?
A manual one for now. For the bigger leagues, i assign weights to each team based on:
Number of days between matches
Squad value
Home/Away form
Manager H2H
Squad value isn't useful in the smaller leagues though.