It's dwyer70905 from YouTube -- Betting Strategy -- Boxing -- Andre Ward v. Sergey Kovalev

in #sports8 years ago

It's Dwyer, a Youtuber with more than 8,000 YouTube subscribers.  (Google dwyer youtube).

You're in Vegas and you want to profit on the upcoming Andre Ward v. Sergey Kovalev fight.  Both are unbeaten.  Ward dominated his last fight against Alexander Brand, winning by unanimous decision.  Kovalev dominated his last fight against Ike Chilemba, winning by unanimous decision.  How do you set up a betting hedge that puts the odds in your favor?


I believe this bet makes itself.  This is a math play.  I believe the linchpin of the bet should be Kovalev by KO at significantly better than even money odds.  As Andre Ward has never been KO'ed, the casino will likely reward you with great odds on this side of the hedge.   The much greater than even money odds on this side of the play will enable you to set up a hedge that pays you if either side of the bet wins.  For example, if you get +200 on this side of the play ("Side A"), and simply even money of the other side ("Side B"), you can win by betting 200 on the +200 side (expected winnings of $400 plus return of capital) and 300 on the even money side (expected winnings of 300 plus return of capital.)  If Side A wins, you net 100 (which is $400 minus the $300 you bet on the other side).  If Side B wins, you net 100 (which is $300 minus the $200 you bet on the other side).  Juggle the numbers.  If you are getting significantly more than even money on one side of the play, you may even be able to subsidize a "Side B" that has a return of less than even money.


For this fight, your "much better than even money" Side A is Kovalev by KO.


For your Side B, I like the "over" round total.  You'll win this side of the play if the fight goes over the listed total, regardless of who wins the fight.  For example, if the over is 9 rounds -- you win if the fight makes it to the start of the tenth.


Logic -- I don't see Ward getting an early KO.  His last two fights have been gone the distance.  Ward is a defensive genius who likely will spend the early rounds "reading" his opponent.  With the hedge, you're covered if Kovalev gets a KO at any time.  You're also covered if the fight goes the distance.


But be aware of the risk --  You lose it ALL if Ward gets an early KO (before the "over" round total).  


Good luck.  Remember -- this is gambling and the risk is always substantial.

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