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With the NFL season right around the corner, I thought it would be best to push out some articles related to fantasy football.  This is the second, of a series of blogs  (See My RB Article Here), related to fantasy football preseason rankings and hot takes.  Matthew Barry is one of my favorite fantasy sports writers and has a great thing going with his weekly love/hate list.  I'm not going to copy-cat that style but instead of giving a straight up top-10 list, I thought I would switch it up and give you my 2018 "Plus" or "Minus" list.  Next to each name I also include their overall position rank per ESPN ADP, overall ADP Rank and then my personal rankings.  Everything is based on PPR.  

Keep in mind, this list has been created based on where players have been getting drafted on average overall and by position.  Essentially, the article relates to the guys I'm high on compared to where they are getting drafted and the guys I am not so high on.  Just because a player falls on my Minus ( - ) list, doesn't mean I think he will suck or have a bad season.  It simply means I am not interested in that player at that average drafted position.   Very quickly a guy that falls on my Minus ( - ) list could within a few picks or a round become a value pick for me and someone I am interested in. 

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The Quarterback Position

The quarterback position is always interesting because on one hand, it is viewed as the single most important position on a winning football team but on the other, the QB position likely falls behind both RB and WR in terms of fantasy importance.  That isn't to say you can win with any QB, but instead it simply means the point differential between a great QB and an average QB isn't as dramatic as a great RB or WR and an average player at those positions.  That being said, there are some QBs in 2018 that I absolutely love while there are others that are a bit overrated in my opinion.  Like many others, I personally don't believe taking a QB before round 3-4 at the earliest but that again all depends on your league rules and league size.   Please enjoy the following list of my Plus ( + ) and Minus ( - ) quarterbacks for 2018 as well as my overall Top 10.  

Plus ( + )

Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers

ESPN ADP Position Rank - 1 (26.9 overall)
Personal Position Rank - 1

Literally one of my favorite players in 2018 fantasy drafts, Aaron Rogers represents the elite of the elite.  So much so, that at times, I have even "reached" for him in certain league drafts.  It's not really a debate among fantasy experts as to who the first overall QB should be, its just a matter of when to take him overall.  Aaron Rodgers is everything you want in a QB.  Competitive, strong arm, smart, leader, playmaker, accuracy, consistency, opportunity, etc. etc. etc. .  

Unfortunately, Rodgers broke his collarbone Week 6 of last season and missed pretty much the remainder of the season.  That's still not stopping me from listing him #1 overall for QB.  Rodgers pretty much carries the Packers offense each and every week, meaning great things for fantasy owners.  No other quarterback in the league performs like Rodgers on a consistent basis.  He threw for 1700 yards and 16 TDs in just 7 weeks of action last year (with no running game).  There are some negatives to point out however, such as the fact Rodgers lost one of his most talented and respected receivers in Jordy Nelson in the offseason which even led to negative remarks and comments out of the QB.  But overall, I do believe the offense has gotten better around him.  Devante Adams is a star receiver in this league who is big, physical, and came into his own last season.  Randal Cobb should have a better season than last moving back into his role of primary slot receiver.  They should have a more steady stable of pure running backs.  And they added Jimmy Graham - a weapon at the TE position that Rodgers hasn't had in year.  Should the running game improve on top of all of this, look for another MVP season out of Rodgers and the overall best QB in 2018 by a long margin.  Lock and load him for 4000 yards, 33+ TDs, and one hell of a season brining Green Bay back into the playoffs.  

Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints

ESPN ADP Position Rank - 7 (75.2 overall)
Personal Position Rank - 5

How easily people forget about players after a season not up to expectations.  All of the news out of New Orleans after last season surrounds their elite offensive line and league best rushing attack.  Because of this, for the first time in a long time, Drew Brees didn't have to carry the team and throw the ball a million times a game.  Unfortunately, this led to a down year both statistically and fantasy-wise for Brees in 2017 as he threw for 4334 yard and 23 TDs.  Yes, its remarkable thats a "down" season for a QB but for a guy that has been elite year after year, we do expect more.  For example, in 2016 Brees eclipsed 5000 passing yards to go along with 37 passing TDs.  So yea, 14 less touchdowns and almost 1000 less passing yards does raise some eyebrows.  However, I really don't think that Brees deserves to be falling as far as he has in ADP to 7-8 overall at the QB position.  In my mind, he is still an elite top -5 quarterback in this league.  I do understand there is a difference between an elite NFL QB and an elite fantasy QB (Big Ben for example) but Brees isn't "too old" and hasn't fallen off a cliff.  There is nothing to suggest Brees lost anything last year.   It simply came down to opportunity last season and with their ability go run heavy most of the season, Brees simply didn't have to throw as much, especially in the red zone.  In fact, in 2017 Brees set an NFL record with a 72% completion rate while also maintaining a 104 passer rating.  

Overall, this reminds me of the final years of Peyton Manning's career where people and "experts" claimed he couldn't throw the long ball and would never be good again.  Well he was and in a similar fashion Brees will continue to dominate.  2017 was an outlier for Brees.  With Ingram out (possibly affecting the rush game?), an elite offensive line, great receivers, and more importantly one of the most special combinations of QB / Coach, I believe Brees regresses back closer to his norm.  Maybe not a top 2-3 QB anymore but I believe Brees should be falling into the top 5 of QBs drafted.  Look for Brees to throw for 4500 + yards and a more normalized 30+ TDs. 

Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons

ESPN ADP Position Rank - 12 (103.4 overall)
Personal Position Rank - 10

Simply put, Matt Ryan is a top-10 quarterback.  According to ESPN ADP, he is being drafted around #12 at the QB position, which I believe is just wrong on so many levels.  I mean freaking Andrew Luck is getting drafted ahead of him and the guy hasn't played a snap in like 2 years.  The big argument against Ryan is that his remarkable 2016 season was an outlier when he threw for nearly 5000 yards and 38 TDs.  Compare that to 2017, when his TD total dropped to 20 and his overall passing yardage also fell to 4000, you can see something went wrong.  Personally, I believe it was in large part due to the lost of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan combined with some bad injuries to the Falcons offense.  Ryan basically went from MVP to a bottom of the league QB in terms of fantasy.  That doesn't happen often which lends me to believe he improves this season.  For one, he now has a full season under his belt with new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian.  Second, the offensive should be improving both in terms of health and with the addition of a first round draft choice weapon in Calvin Ridley (WR).  The 20 TDs Matt Ryan threw last year was his lowest total since his rookie season.  Clearly, this is an outlier and I expect Ryan to drastically improve his numbers in 2018.   Ryan might have an ADP of 12 but I believe he finishes as a top 10 quarterback in 2018.  

Philip Rivers - LA Chargers

ESPN ADP Position Rank - 16 (116.4 overall)
Personal Position Rank - 8

DISRESPECTFUL.  THE MOST UNDERRATED QB IN THE NFL...............Thats pretty much sums up where Philip Rivers is getting drafted in 2018 and my overall opinion of him.  Rivers is arguably my most favorite value draft choice in the entire league this season.  I really just can't believe on average he is getting drafted as the #16 QB this season.  Just unfreakingbelieveable.  This man has been threw at least 500 wide-outs over the last 3 years and has been playing with 58 year old Antonio Gates as a primary weapon.  Yet, each and every year, the dude delivers.  

• 2015 - 4800 yards / 29 TDs
• 2016 - 4400 yards / 33 TDs
• 2017 - 4500 yards / 28 TDs

The numbers don't lie, Rivers is consistent and he is good.  I just don't get how he is falling so far in drafts.  Look, no disrespect, but Rivers is falling behind guys like Andrew Luck (injured since we can remember), Patrick Mahomes (unproven), Jimmy Garoppolo (dates pornstars), and Dak Prescott (terrible offense) on average.  I just can't believe that.  If you like consistency in performance, Philip Rivers easily stands out as the best value QB on the board for 2018.  He had a great season last year and no one talked about him.  All he needs is a healthy team around him for once and he will showcase just how elite he can be.  

 Just take him and thank me later.  Mark my words, Rivers, barring injury, will finish as a top-10 quarterback this season. 

Minus ( - )

Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers

ESPN ADP Position Rank - 3 (51.2 overall)
Personal Position Rank - 7

I respect Cam and believe he is one of the better QBs in the NFL today.  However, with the team around him and performance over the last couple of season, I just can't support Cam going #3 overall for QBs.  It seems as though he has all the upside in the world but just can't capitalize.  Even with his elite QB running ability, especially as a goal line runner, Newton hasn't eclipsed 28 total TDs over the last 2 seasons.  This combined with the fact he never exceeds 3800 yards through the air just doesn't do it for me on a weekly basis.  For me, its the "what have you don't for me lately" and Newton really hasn't done much.  He does get a new offensive coordinator this year in Norv Turner but I just don't want to take the chance as the #3 QB and would rather take guys such as Wilson and Brees.  Simple as that.  Could Newton score another 45 total TDS as he did in 2015?  Yea, sure but that was 2015 and we just haven't seen that elite upside in a long time.  My opinion is to wait on Newton or let someone else take the chance at #3 QB. 

Deshaun Watson - Houston Texans

ESPN ADP Position Rank - 4 (51.5 overall)
Personal Position Rank - 6

Deshaun Watson seems to be getting all the hype entering this season on the QB front and for good reason.  The dude was impressive in limited action last year.  Almost 1700 yards passing, 300 rushing, and 21 total TDs in just 7 games before injury ended his rookie season.  Watson has all the goods.  He is as electric as anyone in the NFL running a bit of a college style spread type offensive both as a runner and passer.  More importantly, he was consistent in the 7 games we saw him averaging nearly 24 points a game fantasy.  His ceiling is massive coming into 2018, especially if he can maintain the pace he had last season.  However, Watson had reconstructive knee surgery due to his injury, something that scares me on many levels.  Time and time again, we see electric type QBs go down with injury and never return to normal self.  Is this the case?  Maybe, maybe not.  Its not that I don't believe in his ability to come back, I just don't know if he is worth the risk of skipping other non-injury / consistent guys to nab him in the top-5.  Defenses will start to gameplay around him on top of whatever might affect him from his injury.  I just don't see him going as a top-5 QB in my book even though he could certainly end the season there.  The risk is too high and for that, Watson is one of my Minus ( - ) players for 2018 based on his overall position ADP of 4.  I have him just outside the top-5 at #6.  

Andrew Luck - Indianapolis Colts

ESPN ADP Position Rank - 8 (82.3 overall)
Personal Position Rank - 12-15

I honestly think Lucks ADP this season is based on pure speculation and stats from years ago.  Luck has had just too many problems with the same injury, a shoulder mind-you, that I cannot see him being worth a draft spot in the top-10, let alone #8 for QB.  I mentioned him as an example in a couple of my other Plus ( + ) posts and I stand by it.  Luck shouldn't be getting drafted where he is.  There is talent after him that is much less of a risk in my opinion.  Don't get me wrong, I think Andrew Luck is/was of the up and coming QBs in the NFL, but again, his injury was serious and for a QB not something you want to consistently see create problems.  Luck hasn't played since 2016 and even before that he only played 7 games in 2015.  Just too many injuries for a guy being drafted as high as he is.  On top of that, the Colts offense just sucks.  One reason he can't stay healthy is the fact the offensive line is horrendous.  Why chance it again?  I just don't see it.  And finally, I watched his last preseason game in which he played the first half and did not look good at all.  He literally could only complete the short crossing route to the TE position.  Not something you want to see out of a guy projected to be top-10 at the position.  Stay away in general is my personal opinion until he shows something that warrants selecting him higher.  The biggest Minus ( - ) on my board, Luck should not be going as a top-10 QB. 

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OVERALL 2018 QB RANKINGS

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Russell Wilson
4. Carson Wentz
5. Drew Brees
6. Deshaun Watson
7. Cam Newton
8. Philip Rivers
9. Kirk Cousins
10. Matt Ryan