~ Can CMEs and other solar events be predicted? ~ “Seasons” in Space weather ~
1- Artistic recreation of a CME / NASA
The space weather usually goes unnoticed in our daily life, however from time to time our beloved Sun produces phenomena so powerful that it forces us to pay more attention.
When we talk about the Sun and its ejection events, the dimensions are of an enormous energy scale, and of a size that is very difficult to imagine from the perspective of a human being.
These powerful events of space weather caused by the Sun can lead to serious problems in the electrical network, with GPS navigation, communications. In the worst possible scenarios, a CME could even destroy all electronic devices in vast regions of the Earth.
In a society so technologically dependent every day it becomes more important to predict this type of phenomena.
2- CME captured by the LASCO C3 spectrograph - ESA / NASA / SOHO
A study published recently in the journal Nature, scientists seem to have found "seasonal" patterns to predict CMEs months in advance.
”Eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic “seasons”, which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods.”
Q1 Nature doi : 10.1038 / s41598-017-14957-x
3 - Area of intense and complex magnetic fields. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/SDO
Astrophysicists in this study have relied on the latest observations of sunspot cycles and their frequent ejection phenomena that would represent the active “season”. The absence of sunspots represents the quiet “season”.
As it happens in the solar cycles of eleven years; where the groups of sunspots indicate the maximum and the solar minimum in terms of activity. In the short-term predictions of solar activity, sunspot magnetic fields will be used in the future to determine the most destructive events for us.
”We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline).”
Q2 - Nature doi : 10.1038 / s41598-017-14957-x
This will be a big step forward since we currently only have a few hours to prepare for this type of Solar events. According to the conclusions of this study, it will soon be possible to make predictions months or even years in advance.
References
1
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/cme-graphic.html
2
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/what-to-see-in-cme-images/
3
https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/nasas-solar-dynamics-observatory-watches-a-sunspot
Q1, Q2 - The Origin of the “Seasons” in Space Weather - Nature doi:10.1038/s41598-017-14957-x
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14957-x
Gift-thanks to @markperandin
Let's take care of the pale blue dot
Enjoy your day. Enjoy your life.
Gift-thanks to @stellabelle
Yes, it was also speculated that a network of close space sensors(for example, in satellites on a near-sun orbit) could detect CMEs way before they actually happen, much like how earthquake detectors work nowadays. Cost would be fairly prohibitive but with the future world flooded by tech and depending on it to function well, who knows, maybe it will be worth to install them someday?
Understanding better the internal processes of the Sun is what will allow scientifics to make long-term predictions. In particular studying the tachocline. The sensors in satellites don't help in this case, since the impact of a CME detected by a satellite doesn't allow us enough time to prepare.
What has been raised at the theoretical level is to send a shield to the Lagrange point L1 to protect the Earth from ejective phenomena that are directed towards us.
That would take the fun out of a CME.
Yes, surprise is lost.
If you realize, many efforts are being made to understand the dynamics of space weather. They don't stop publishing papers, announcements, launching new satellites, incredible.
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