The Reverend Is Back
The English Football Leagues are starting today.
The new seasons are starting today with the Reading v Derby County match. It's time for the Reverend to come back. Here are the calculations made by my prediction model:
EFL Premier League
EFL Championship
EFL League One
EFL League Two
Vanarama National League
Although I'll be placing micro bets on each pick made by The Reverend and track its performance, my main bets (for the SBC League) will be made separately.
the odds from pinnacle at the time of the calculation
I'm really looking forward to see how it will all play out. My guess is that you will likely need to become a bit more selective. The odds tend to be too sharp these days to get away betting the entire board each week. Good luck ! If you manage to do +2% / +3% on this volume you can really grow very quickly.
Thanks @costanza!
Right now, the volume is the key when it comes to the model. If it manages to make the profit by betting on Liverpool @1.306 it can only do better when I apply some filters to it :-)
Loving this but insufficient time to engage properly right now... i'll be back!!! Good luck! :-)
Thanks @marcusbraeburn!
There will be time to engage properly, the seasons are just starting out :-)
I noticed that your prediction model has the same problem as the Poisson model I am using.
It just predicts too few draw. According to overall stats 25% of all games do end in a draw.
I did try to solve it with the correct score predictions because that delivers more draws. For this week even too much draws.
Strange how we try to persuade ourselves with stats to eliminate the human mind :)
Besides the 100% upvote I also resteemed it, to give your account some more exposure. Hope that this will bring some more followers so that the busy.org will increase.
Cheers,
Peter
Thanks Peter!
It's a common problem with the most stats/ml models.
My workaround is to play AH +0 bets when the odds warrant it. It's been a profitable approach during the tests I did betting on the Premier League.
So you play everything AH+0 of only if the percentage for the favorite is below 50%?
And just 1X2 when the percentage give of on side or the other more than 50% chance?
You can say that I'm scaling down the model's predictions.
As an example, take the Arsenal v Manchester City game. The model says to take the home win @3.19, I'll scale it down and take Arsenal +0.25 @1.97.
Goodluck to the start of the season! Looking forward to the EPL to kick off again!
Thanks @kryptocek, we are back in business :-)
Welcome back Reverend :-).
Lookign forward to follow that during a whole year. Good luck !
Thanks @djoker!
I have a feeling that this will be The Reverend's year :-)
Patiently waiting for EPL to start world cup and friendlies really dealt with me.
My predictions is that Derby will win their previous performance is good unlike reading .
The cups and friendlies are my enemies, too :-)
The beginning of the season is rather unpredictable. Even though Derby had a better pre-season it is not a guarantee of the good performance tonight. My gut feeling is that this game will end up as a draw.
Derby won finally ,correct score 1:2 Derby are inform now .
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