We expect Samsung to start pilot production of QD-OLED-TV in 2019 with 5k per month of Gen 8.5, adding a second 5k in 2020, and 30k each in both 2021 and 2022. We recognize that the Samsung QD OLED plans have more than the usual amount of error bar, as the QD OLEDs could be as low as zero and as high as 4-5x our current estimate, depending on whether Samsung can cost-effectively manufacture this product at volume. If Samsung fails to overcome the technology and manufacturing hurdles, they could cancel the project altogether, but if the product is a technology and commercial success, Samsung has the cash to invest in rapid capacity expansion, not only in Gen 8.5 but also potentially in Gen 10.5.
The QD OLED Stack profile shown below illuminates some of the advantages but also the challenges of this product architecture. The two biggest challenges of QD OLED are: 1) getting a good blue OLED, and 2) making the Quantum Dot Color Converter (QDCC).
QD OLED Stack Profile
Because of the simpler OLED structure, QD OLED is a relatively less attractive development for the OLED Materials suppliers. Although it is a growth opportunity for OLED materials, the revenues from QD OLED will be a small fraction of overall OLED material revenues, as shown in the figure below. With our current capacity estimates, QD OLED will represent only 5% of material revenues for TV applications, and less than 3% of revenues for all applications.