West Coast Milblogger 08/05/2023
Image by Mediamodifier from Pixabay
Finally, the motive behind the Wagner Mutiny has been revealed this week. People have been waiting for an explanation as journalists ask pundits to weigh in on the conversation. Was it real? Was it propaganda? What the hell happened to make Prigozhin turn back from Moscow?
Now we know in the aftermath of two Belarusian helicopters hovering over the Polish border, while President Alexander Lukashenko threatens a Wagner strike on Warsaw; he also apologizes for his remarks before making the point that NATO should thank him for keeping the paramilitary organization in check. The result is controlled chaos.
And that’s the answer to the Wagner Mutiny. We now know that it was orchestrated by the Kremlin to get troops into Belarus in a manner that allowed Russia to claim plausible deniability. At this time mercenaries are crawling across the Suwalki Gap their true intentions are unknown as escalation in the European Theater could soon become a reality because Poland and Lithuania are not playing around. An attack by Wagner has already been classified as an attack by Russia. The ruse didn’t fool these nations.
The American Presidential election has begun to heat up during the hottest time of the year. While I’m not interested in American politics because they seem meaningless after the Hemp ordeal outlined in Pandemic Manifesto, there are some interesting points to mention.
First it must be said that people are claiming democracy is dead if President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump don’t face justice in the same manner people claim autocracy defeats democracy if President Vladimir Putin isn’t brought to justice for war crimes. It has the effect of mirroring the enemy.
While Biden has been accused of taking millions in bribes to create a need for weapons exports to the glee of Hunter’s friends, a defeat of the Russian arms industry is not imminent, while China’s gains a mythological edge for the weapons they have in store.
Trump wants to end World War III – I’m calling it the reignition of WWII – while also joining the Sound of Freedom fandom. Trump’s friend Putin, is an alleged war criminal for exporting more than 700,000 Ukrainian children to unknown regions inside Russia.
Trump also wants to build the wall between Mexico and America again. Once again, an issue familiar to Putin as we’ve already discussed with Wagner troops crossing into Poland from Belarus. Is Trump using these issues to distance himself from Russia, since he makes no direct connection in his recent speeches, or is it to empathize? It’s all controlled chaos.
Something that has gone right because of the Trump Administration are sanctions on China that have now cracked the second largest economy. Ironically Mexico is now America’s #1 trading partner. How strange is that?
Yet we also see more controlled chaos with Chinese malware meant to disrupt U.S. military installations in the Pacific. Yet malware attacks never end in a Beijing court.
Not to mention an unlicensed Chinese lab with HIV and Coronavirus in California. And not to mention China manufacturers fentanyl that’s sent to Mexico to be mixed with illegal narcotics to kill Americans. In these cases, investigators cannot confirm addresses in mainland China to bring offenders to justice.
We are all left to ponder the meaning of these actions.
Only one thing seems clear, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has slowed for a good reason, as minefields are difficult to cross. Experience has helped them form an effective war plan, Starve, Stretch, and Strike.
Using precision guided missiles and drones, the Ukrainian military is destroying the supply lines for Russia’s frontline troops who are then starved. This forces the Russians to move ammunition depots, fuel depots, food, and reinforcements further away from the frontline to remain out of reach of Ukraine’s missiles, stretch. Once the frontlines are depleted with weakened troops forced to perform the difficult task of defending cleared minefields the Ukrainian army strikes.
Given time, Ukraine’s strategy should work to push Russia back to its border. Then it’s going to require hitting targets inside Russia for the final push. However, we are once again forced into the question of nuclear war? If Russia doesn’t mind losing half-a-million troops we might get to see the answer.
Yet it’s painfully clear Russia is already feeling the pain. It’s becoming more difficult to recruit new cannon fodder. To take back the initiative Wagner has crossed the Polish border while the Black Sea Fleet hits ports bordering Romania. By pulling in NATO now, Russia can find a way to overpower Ukraine with full mobilization and the hope of getting a technological boost from China.
Meanwhile, Putin remains in Chad to lead Wagner forces on the African continent, enjoying success far away from the threats of nuclear war. Africa, a continent that’s been tapped to become the most prosperous in the next century due to many economic factors in simple need of infrastructure development. Yet in Russia, the military demands all-out war to achieve its goals of victory in Ukraine as it looks to follow the lead of pundits to reclaim its empire.