Great analysis!
I think you are correct about a lots of things.
David P Goldman (Spengler) is saying similar things. http://www.atimes.com/article/china-will-buy-turkey-on-the-cheap/

A few points:

1. Turkey is just exchanging a US slave collar for a Chinese one.
2. Russia, Iran and Turkey are all historic enemies of each other so its not a stable alliance - look for Russia to bleed Turkey as they have bled Iran.
3. Taking Turkey out of NATO prevents the encirclement of Russia that the US achieved in the Cold War - a huge geopolitical achievement for Putin.
4. These developments make the US even more dependent on the true regional superpower - Israel.
   This is why both Putin and Trump are so cosy with Bibi.

• Russia can only maintain its crucial Syrian position with Israeli acquiescence.
• The US can only maintain its E Med presence under Israeli protection.
  US aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to Russian supersonic and hypersonic missiles, but land based aircraft in hardened revetments protected by the world's best 5 layer missile defence shield are not.