NHL Betting Analysis - Vegas at Detroit (THU, March 8th)
Hi,
This is my sports betting analysis, where I will try to give you sports betting information about this game, including my own odds projections. The idea of this analysis is to give you enough valuable information and my views, so you can make better bet.
Note also, that I am writing this analysis as a sports bettor, not as a sports fan. Because of that I am looking for a value or if you like, I will analyse the odds and the chances of both teams.
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Opening odds and my projected lines
Bookmakers opened Detroit Red Wings at around +125 / 2.25 and they give better chance to Vegas, which makes sense, because Vegas is playing amazing ice hockey this season and they are underrated most of the season.
However, I also estimated my own odds and I give Vegas 51.68% chance to win and Detroit 48.32% chance to win this game. My fair odds on this game are Vegas -107 /1.93 and Detroit +107 / 2.07. I would expect, that if I bet on Detroit, that bookmakers will pay me at least $107 for my $100 risked. With the odds of +125, I get little bit more. If I bet $100 on Detroit I will make a profit of $125, which is more than I would expect and this is a value, which is based on my math model.
The public will be on Vegas and according to some sites, more than 70% of bettors will be on Vegas.
Vegas Golden Knights
Golden Knights have a great season, this is for sure. Especially in the first half of the season and especially at home, they were one of the most underrated teams in NHL. Betting on them was very profitable whole season.
All games: 42-24, ROI +21.7% (avg odds -106)
Home games: 24-9, ROI 21% (avg odds -144)
Road games: 18-15, ROI +20.7 (avg odds +131)
They were basically an even team against other teams, despite they are second best team in Western Conference and top 5 team in NHL.
But bookmakers adjusted their numbers and we can not find the value in every single game with Vegas anymore. Also bettors started to bet on the more and more, because they were simply money this season.
It is also unrealistic to expect from them to keep this good form whole season. And in last 8 games they lost 5 of them.
Vegas score 3.4 goals per game and allow 2.8. They are superb at home with the record of 24-9. On the road their numbers are still very good, but not that good, especially in the defence. They still score a lot on the road, but they also allow more than 3 goals per game. And in last 5 games overall, they score 2.2 goals per game and allow 3.6 goals per game. This is very small sample size and we should not make final conclusion based on current form, but I wanted to point out that it is hard to keep this high level of play during whole season, especially if you have couple of injured players. And Vegas have couple of injured players, including couple of players that are questionable today.
William Carrier Out
Oscar Lindberg Questionable
James Neal Questionable
Luca Sbisa Out
Nate Schmidt Questionable
Reilly Smith Questionable
Clayton Stoner Out
Malcolm Subban Out
Not all players are important for our analysis, because some of them are already injured for a long time and Subban is a goalie. But especially Schmidt, Smith and Neal are very important players. Smith is second best in points, he is also second best in +/- rating and he is third best based on point shares. Schmidt is their most important defender. He is their best player based on DPS. Neal on the other side is 6th best player based on points for this team and he scored most winning goals for this team this season. So, if they will not play, Vegas will be weaker for sure tonight.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings are in the middle of very tough schedule right now. They played 5 straight games on the road and today they will play one game at home, but then they are going on 5 day road trip again.
Detroit lost 4 out of first 5 road games, but in the last game, they showed good effort against Boston. They are 13-21 to the season with 2.7 goals scored and 3 allowed. They were also a sellers this season and their season is basically over.
Detroit will miss Nielsen. He is valuable player, but is not most important player for this team.
Goalies
Detroit will start with Jimmy Howard. He is already confirmed and this is what I was expecting after they started with Coreau the last game in Boston. He is a good goalie with career 0.915 Sv%. Last season GA% 84, but he is also playing for Detroit in “rebuilding-mode” era.
I still don’t have the information about Vegas goalie, but I believe, that they can start with Fleury, who has a great season. After years in Pittsburgh he changed the team this season and nobody knew that this team will be such a big surprise this season. He was even injured at the start of the season, but the numbers tells us everything. SV% 0.926, GA% 84.
Conclusion:
We have Vegas on one side, who is the biggest surprise this season. I don’t believe, that anyone gave them big chance before the season started. Later I saw, that William Hill announced, that if Vegas wins championship that this will be a huge damage.
Vegas started season well and they are consistently good trough whole season. Right now, this is maybe the only period, where they are not that good, but this is something that we we could expect for sure. Nobody can keep such a high level for whole season. And especially not if you have injured players all the time and if we are honest, they don’t even have any superstars. But this is also maybe their strength at the end.
However, Vegas was underrated most of the season and if this is a game from the start of the season, I believe, that we would have Vegas at +130 or something like that. Bettors made huge money betting on this team, but of course bookmakers adjusted their numbers on Vegas Golden Knights and I think we can see much sharper odds on Vegas games now.
And I personally think, that we have some value with Detroit tonight.
My betting model has Detroit at 48.32% of chance, which is still less that 50%, but when we compare my fair odds on Detroit with bookmakers odds, there is some value. Public will be huge on Vegas and the odds already dropped on Detroit.
Vegas have couple of questionable players for this game. Three very important players are dealing with injuries. The playoffs will start soon and I don’t believe, that they will force any player or risk any injury. Yes, the games are important, but losing a player before playoffs is even more important. Even if they play, I don’t know in what shape they are. Neal didn’t play in previous four games (hand injury), Smith left the last game with an injury and Schmidt didn’t play three straight games.
Detroit on the other side is not playing for anything right now, except for their fans. But this is not necessary that bad for some teams. Some people will say, that this and that team must win, but “must” win still don’t guarantee us a win. I saw many times, when teams, who were playing for the fans at the end of season beat teams, that needed a win. Some young guys will step up and will try to show their best effort and this is not necessary that bad. So, I would not go deep into discussion, which team needs this win and which team doesn’t need this team. I would like to stick with the numbers and the facts.
The numbers show some value with Detroit. The fact is that Vegas is dealing with some injuries from couple of important players. The fact is that Vegas Golden Knights numbers are already adjusted late in the season and they lost 5 out of last 8 games. The fact is that we can not expect that Vegas will keep this high level play whole season. And Detroit usually show very good effort at home. Even if they lose games, they don’t lose games by high margin goals, but usually those games are close games, that could end also with their win.
I believe, that we will see a close game in Detroit and because we have some value with Red Wings, I would recommend bet on Detroit if you are a value bettor. If you are looking for a winner, I think Vegas has better chance to win this game, this is also what my math model suggests.
DETORIT +125 / 2.25
Please check also my video, where I comment all NHL games today with all my projections and my estimated odds.
Whatever you decide, I wish you good luck.