The U.S., China and Thucydides trap

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How to cope with the next clash of civilizations

Many Americans, realizing how increased China is competing today with the United States in all fields, to entertain the idea that, when China becomes richer and stronger, he will follow the footsteps of Germany, Japan and other countries, undergone a profound transformation and became an advanced liberal democracies. In the words of former Deputy Secretary of state Robert Zoellick, a magical cocktail of globalization, consumption and market integration in a world order based on certain rules, in the end, will lead China towards democratization in the country and becoming a "responsible shareholder of world politics."

Samuel Huntington does not agree with these conclusions. In the essay "the Clash of civilizations?", published in the journal Foreign Affairs in 1993, he argued that the cultural divide is not only not dissolve in the global liberal order, but will become a defining feature of the world after the cold war. The argument of Huntington today remembered in the first place, as he presciently predicted the split between "the West and the Muslim civilizations", which is most clearly manifested in the September 11 attacks and their consequences. But Huntington also predicted that the Gulf between the West led by the United States and the Chinese civilization will be the same deep, long-lasting and consequential. As he put it, "the very idea of the existence of a "universal civilization" is a Western idea, which directly contradicts the particularism of most Asian societies, with their emphasis on the distinctions of one nation from another."

The past years have reinforced the findings of Huntington and the coming decades even more convincingly prove him right. USA represent what Huntington believes the Western civilization. The contradictions between American and Chinese values, traditions and philosophies will aggravate fundamental structural tension that occurs whenever a rising power like China threatens to oust a well-established, such as the United States.

The reason why such changes often lead to conflict – the trap of Thucydides, named for the ancient Greek historian, observed a dangerous confrontation between the rising Athens and ruled by Sparta. According to Thucydides, "What was the rise of Athens caused fear in Sparta, made war inevitable." It is clear that stronger powers feel entitled to demand more influence and respect. The established powers in the face of throwing a challenge to them new strength, fear, worries, insecurities, forcing them to take a defensive posture. In such circumstances, misunderstandings are inflated, empathy becomes a pipe dream; the events and actions of third parties that otherwise would be considered minor or under the control, can push for military action is undesirable for the leading players.

Источник informatiohttp://trueinform.модули ру/.РНР?имя=возложил&имя=colonelcassadn:   Colonel Cassad