RE: These Markets Are A Crime In Progress And Steve Mnuchin Is The New Underboss. By Gregory Mannarino
Hi Greg you have very interesting posts. I am not sure about the housing market comments. You are right and it is easy to see that the USD is tanking, but saying RE prices are going up becuase the USD is dropping I am not so sure. Being someone that invests in real estate I have seen the inventory dry up over the last few years while prices have increased. Isn't that classic supply and demand? Inventory has been low and prices were have been increasing for years now and that was when the dollar was high. I think the trend is just continuing. Also what about international markets where the USD is not used and where currencies have been gaining against the USD . There is widespread low inventory and rising prices in many markets around the world. We are seeing alot of Chinese money moving into these markets. And yeah china has rules about how much money they can move out of the country but they seem to be figuring out a way to move it.
happygolucky...I must ask...were you buying real estate in 2003-2009? Turning points in the real estate market are very tricky. Savvy sellers are wanting out...young buyers are wanting in because they have no historical perspective. Once a major crash is experienced, we have that historical perspective. Inexperience believes nothing changes.
No why? I bought after the downturn. I was fortunate enough to meet a wealthy RE investor during a 3 day fishing tournament where there was only 3 of us fishing together and I could pick his brain. Long story short he was able to help me invest and invest for cash flow. Although there has been significant appreciation which is nice but does not change my life very much. I don't really care because my loans are fixed rate if we move into mass inflation my rents will probably go up. More money for me every month.
However I really don't understand what your question has to do with my comment. What does that have to do with prices moving up in low inventory international markets which do not use USD? My point is it is not just US inventory dropping as there are markets all around the world with low inventory and higher prices. So drawing a correlation between a weaker dollar and rising RE prices without acknowledging that the inventory has been drying up when the dollar was stronger may not make a lot of sense.
I understand what you are saying. You truly got in at the perfect time...a dream come true for many investors. I don't believe any market can be isolated as you are viewing it. Don't forget that we now have a Global Economy. Isn't it ironic that all countries have rising RE markets and low inventories? (All nations are in this sinking ship together, tied at their waists. Moreover, all have huge debts because of their respective quantitative easing--and no real wealth or for that matter, most everyone has limping economies.) The looming Global Reset will devalue current values by 30-60%...this means all assets, cash, CD's, pensions, equities, properties...not sure about cryptos...yes, gold and silver, too, if in the system. History points to this scenario. Then, I've read the likely scenario is that banks will still require that the same terms on the original contract be fulfilled. Now, no one knows for certain that banks will take this posture, but this is what they did in the past. Certainly many property owners are wondering about this scenario. Indeed, this is scary stuff...because most of us have not experienced it in our lives; but some have - those that lived in Germany and other parts of EU...maybe the old Russia, too. (I'm not a historian)
RENTS will go up as long as DEMAND goes up. When gov'ts stop quantitative easing, SUPPLY goes up. Ask your mentor; I'd love to listen in!
I do not want to sound adversarial here, but every investor needs to be aware of turning points...and one is soon nearing. They all have been cooking the books longer than just a decade. Forgive me if I've given you another perspective; you certainly will and can believe your own expectations...we all do just that. Peace.
I don't understand your comment again sorry.
My comment was about Greg stating that US home prices are going up because of a weakening dollar. My point about rents going up is IF we run into a high inflation environment which Greg also said will happen, rents will most likely increase with the inflation. Rents are included in the CPI and I am sure you know that CPI is what is used to measure inflation. That was my point about rents going up. My rents have already gone up 50% and I was cash flowing before the rent increase.
I do not doubt there will be a correction at some point and every day that goes by we are one day closer. I could guess and get lucky but that is not my strategy for RE investing.
Another comment you made was "The looming Global Reset will devalue current values by 30-60%...this means all assets, cash, CD's, pensions, equities, properties". This statement logically cannot be true. The biggest problem I see with that statement is that you included cash and the different currencies that make up cash are typically what you gauge if an asset has been devalued. Let me give you an example. Lets say apple stock is currently valued at $170 USD and the stock drops 50% to $85 USD. Now at the same time USD devalues against the EURO at 50%. Now answer this question?? How is it possible that the Euro is devalued at 50%? What would you measure it against? If you say something like the Chinese Yuan then my next question is what would you value the 50% drop in the Yuan against? and so on. See you can't have all asset classes get devalued when you include cash which is made up of all fiat currencies.
Every country has cash that is specific to the value of their particular currency on any specific day. Forex is the trading of cash (currency) values of different nations...and certainly you know this. All currencies have different values that the trader is buying or selling for his specific purpose. If and when there is a Global Reset, all Western Countries will likely be reset at the same time. This is very complicated and no one truly knows how it will unfold. The decline will likely be different in all Western Countries, but the %'s will likely be similar. Global of course implies ALL countries but yet the BRICS are trying to establish a new paradigm for themselves that will exclude U.S.A.--for now. This is so complicated that Western Leaders are in such a quandary that they can only buy time by keeping all the balls in the air by continuing to buy bonds - as long as they can confuse the masses of uneducated, unsophisticated public in the West through MSM Propaganda...they are holding their own. And in reality the FED, IMF, CB, etc. could keep the balls in the air many more years; however, most experts theorize that 2018 will bring major changes. Good that everything is rolling along so well for your investment decisions. Most would love to be in your shoes.
When Greg says that rents will be pushed up by the lower value of dollars in US because of inflation, it would be specific to covering operating expenses that will also be increasing everywhere else, too. Hyperinflation would be the beginning of chaos. Look at Venezuela. ( I don't think we are on the same page because neither of us understands the other.)
RENTS will go up as long as DEMAND goes up. When gov'ts stop quantitative easing, SUPPLY goes up....then RENTS go down because few will be able to afford higher rents, forcing landlords to lower rents...in search of buyers. I see you have never experienced a falling stock market, either. Best wishes to you my young friend.
I think I understand you now. You are saying the Global reset devalue of cash only applies to Western countries and those outside of BRIC countries. So according to you it will be better to hold cash from the BRIC countries rather than the western countries because that is your metric to determine that cash from western countries has been devalued, and there are no other asset classes to own as everything else will devalue 30%-60% (stocks, equities, real estate etc..). Looks like we have now identified a solid investment strategy for your scenario of the global reset. I am glad we have that sorted.
As far as my original real estate point, it sounds like we agree as you stated prices rise when demand goes up. My point was Greg is perhaps wrong to say that low supply is not a significant factor in increasing prices and the fact the USD is weakening is the reason why RE prices are going up. From what you are saying prices will increase because of increased demand not necessary a weaker dollar. That was my original post question isn't it supply and demand that drives the price of real estate? I also had mentioned that when the dollar was rising RE was also rising. So looking at the strength of the USD doesn't necessarily have a strong correlation.
As far as your other comments about RE I am aware and have been that the market could be coming up on a correction soon. I just mentioned that I believe investing for cash flow may be a better place to be rather than appreciation. I do understand there are risks and there is a chance just like any investment I could lose my investment.
Whew! We worked through a lot, thanks for hanging in here. However, in a complicated world nothing is certain! I used Western countries to allow you to better hone in on some of what my perspective is, which seemed to help. And to answer your point about whose currency might it be safer to buy and hold, at this specific time personally USD would be my last choice. (but USD could reverse course and start back up again--This is what happens when the stock/currency markets are so totally MANIPULATED. ..fickle. this is what it means when they say there is no price discovery. Prices are not in a give or take fight between legitimate traders (investors)...because COUNTRIES buy up blocks to suit their agendas...and the Western countries all have the same play book. Does this sound fair to you?
OK. back to the BRICS. There is controversy about whether or not the BRICS are secretly in on the Global Reset. Some think they are and others totally support the thesis that the BRICS want to construct a new paradigm for the world that is fair to humanity. Seemingly, the Western Elites want to depopulate the world so that Earth is not overpopulated..then the Elites will have the lions share of everything..(this is the abbreviated version)
Now back to where is it best to put one's capital, profits, assets. Very smart analysts, financial advisors and experts all say to put profits in gold and silver,- (NOT ETF's) -or other precious metals, land, real estate, some into cryptos...but not cash, CD's, equities...or anything held in banks, including pensions. And why do they all say to keep a basket of wealth outside the system? Because nothing is certain...nothing is predictable in this wild, crazy world. If we lose some assets, perhaps a different one of our holdings will keep us going. The important word to take away here is DIVERSIFY...because the bottom line is that NO ONE (or country) CAN BE TRUSTED.
LOL....are we still on the same page?
Keep in mind that Greg is a short term trader, helping us to capitalize on short term profits in a corrupt stock market. I'm certain that he knows and understands the big picture better than all of us. He cannot teach us everything...we just need to educate ourselves about markets and how they interrelate. It takes time to learn how we can get a handle on the big picture....especially when most of us are not working in the Financial Industry.![[Clio Team] 1916 Modigliani Madame Reynouard 81x50 cm ParisCollection ParticuliКre.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/640x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmb2e795iA5kieUC2Fove7RRViDkL9bZab5s7RnZbfSTVF/%5BClio%20Team%5D%201916%20%20Modigliani%20%20Madame%20Reynouard%20%2081x50%20cm%20%20ParisCollection%20Particuli%D0%9Are.jpg)