Downpours Bad Hair Weather Florence Update

in meteorology •  last month

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TROPICAL CONDITIONS CLOUDS FOG HUMIDITY DOWNPOURS


FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY 125 MPH CATEGORY 3

We continue to be under the influence of a decaying cold front and a tropical flow from off the ocean. The humidity is very high with dew points in the 70s in many areas and temperatures not that much higher. Clouds are everywhere and there are downpours that have fired up on the radars. On the satellite loop you can see the northern part of the cloud shield from Hurricane Florence which is continuing its march toward the Carolina coast. We will have more on Florence below.
EASTERN SATELLITE

storm free


REGIONAL RADAR

storm free



The action on the regional and local radar seems to be focused along the coast today with a batch in Southern New England and clipping Long Island. A second batch is firing up in Central and Southern New Jersey south into Delaware. The showers are generally moving southwest to northeast.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free


LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free


There are no important changes in our outlook for the next several days. We will be in this humidity right into next week. Clouds and downpours are possible the next 2 days with temperatures by day in the 70s for Thursday and Friday and nights will in the upper 60s to near 70 with clouds and the occasional downpour. Saturday and Sunday high pressure building across New England from the big upper high will dry things out somewhat so that we will have a mix of sun and clouds both days, no downpours, but the humidity will be on the high side. There will be no impact from the landfalling Hurricane Florence wherever it ultimately winds up.
HURRICANE FLORENCE UPDATE 125 MPH WINDS CATEGORY 3
florence
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 2PM EASTERN TIME

The 2pm satellite shows Florence is well defined and it continues to expand. The area of gales extends out 175 miles of the center with hurricane force winds within 75 miles of the center. The expansion of the hurricane into a larger storm geographical has loosened the pressure gradient a bit which is probably why the highest winds have dropped slightly. However the pressure still remains under 950 mb and there is a shrinking window for further strengthening before the the slower track, upwelling and the interaction with the land will start to impact the strength.

florence

There are no major changes in the track of Florence. It will near the coast of North Carolina during the early morning hours on Friday. slow, stall, and then move slowly southwestward and then inland along the South Carolina coast somewhere northeast of Charleston. Models continue to tighten up an a final landfall sometime on Saturday but it will be so close to the coast that the center or part of the center could be bouncing off the coastline as it moves southwestward. Today's European brings the remnant low up the Appalachians just to our north and west and this could mean remnant rains and some gusty winds Tuesday and Tuesday night but this part of the forecast still remains rather dicey and is just one of many possibilities still out there. We know for sure that there will be NO IMPACTS HERE FROM THE LANDFALLING HURRICANE.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 2PM ADVISORY


..FLORENCE'S PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT THE SIZE OF THE
WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...30.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

  • South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
  • Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
    Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

  • Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
  • North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

  • South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
  • Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

  • Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

  • North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

  • North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
    Virginia
  • Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of
Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude
71.8 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in
forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the
coastline through Saturday.

The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible through
Thursday morning. Although slow weakening is expected to begin by
late Thursday, Florence is still forecast to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast late Thursday
and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A NOAA buoy located about 100 miles northeast of
Florence's eye recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 948 mb (27.99 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
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