Fibonacci For Dummies

in #math6 years ago

So what the hell is this Fibonacci number 0.618... that we see all the time in "how to trade" bla bla bla videos?



Well this dude basically started with 0 and 1 and started adding numbers up to get a sequence.
So the sequence starts 0, 1, then he adds the numbers (0+1) and gets 1 (duh!) which is the next number in the sequence.
0,1,1, Then he adds 1+1 and gets 2 (a re-duh!)
0,1,1,2 Then 1+2= 3; 2+3=5; 3+5=8; 5+8=13; and so forth to get an infinite sequence.

0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55.............

(Sequence that I wrote in the fifth grade but got a "F" because to the teacher it did't make sense.)

In any case, so where do you find 0.618? Well instead of adding the numbers you divide:

0/1=0, 1/1=1, 1/2=0.5, 2/3=0.666, 3/5=0.6, 5/8=0.625, 8/13=0.615, 13/21=0.619, 21/34=0.618 and so on.

Yes wrong, Fibonacci is no good for trading. The only reason that it sort of makes sense is that everyone uses it, but I have my own number to watch which comes from another sequence. The premise is that there are 2 players, buyers and sellers and half of the time they are right and half of the time they are wrong. So a move in price starts with 0 to 1 (or 100% if you like).
0, 1 After move up, comes a move down (duh by definition) that retraces 50% (half right half wrong).
0, 1, 0.5 Then a move up that retraces 50% of the move down.
0, 1, 0.5, 0.75 Then move down of 50% of the prior move up.
0, 1, 0.5, 0.75, 0.625, 0.688, 0.656, 0.672, 0.664, 0.668, 0.666 (basically 2/3)

So 0.618 (the golden ratio) is pretty close to 0.666 (the devil's number) but they are not the same.

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Wow! Excellent explanation of your method. 0 and 1; half of the times wrong and getting your numbers which are very close to Fib. levels. I tried to use Fib in my trading and it seldom worked for me!

I've been watching recently a lot of chart Gurus( sorry for the pun) that draw a bunch of lines everywhere and that in the end they say I think it'll go up but it might go down (duh!). I already knew that from my grandmother who used to say it's either gonna go up or down.

That's all I hear from so called Gurus!

A touch of genius!

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