Canada's 2001 climate predictions: Where are we now?

in #life4 years ago

Climate models are functions created to predict future trends in weather based on a set of parameters built into the equation. To give an analogy of how it can fail let me use this recipe for making Angel Food Cake:

1 3/4 cups white sugar
1 1/2 cups egg whites

This is similar to what people use when predicting the weather. Whipping sugar and egg whites together will give the appearance similar to and Angel Food Cake (a meringue) but it lacks the substance (flour, flavouring, salt, cream of tartar) that makes a cake.

Predictably, using only CO2 as the main ingredient to predict climate change is also a mistake. The amount of CO2 released in forest fires in Canada in 2019 was huge. There were 1.8 million hectares of forest lost to fire in 2019. The average amount of CO2 sequestered in a temperate Forest is 625 tC/ha. The amount of carbon released into the atmosphere by fires last year was 1.8 million * 625 tons = 1125 million tons. In contrast, the most recent high (2007) amount of CO2 released through the use of fossil fuels and cement production was 595 million tons.
While the number of hectares lost in 2019 was 1.8 million, the 10-year average is over 2.77 million hectares. On average the amount of CO2 released through natural forest fires is over 1700 ... 3 times the highest human production of CO2. To meet Canada's CO2 emission targets (if it was even necessary) is to reduce our average fires by 1/3 ...

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