A Double Edged Sword. . .The Dollar, Bitcoin, Economic Integration

in investing •  13 days ago


@rawdawg is going to bring up a discussion to open minded/logical Steemians as these topics will need to be considered without emotional attachment to Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency and/or without opinions regarding the US dollar.
I often hear people say, “The dollar is going to crash" "The dollar is worthless" "Bitcoin is going to take over as the world reserve currency" "Bitcoin is going to crash the dollar" etc etc. . .

@rawdawg doesn't completely disagree with the above statements and there is going to be a systematic shift into digital currency one way or another, yet we have to be careful for what we wish. It is observed by me that some people speak with blatant emotion as opposed to analyzing the ramifications of a rapid dollar failure/decline. Rapid dollar decline will be defined for sake of this article as a greater than 60% increase in inflation(goods, services,energy) in less than a year and more than 150%-200% increase in inflation in less than 2 years. The decline could be greater or less but @rawdawg has to use something for this hypothetical.
The result of a dollar decline of this magnitude would in turn be catastrophic for the world economy and would immediately put the United States and all nations in an immediate depression, which has never occurred in hisory. Imagine Walking Dead on a global scale.

To put the above situation into perspective we could use some everyday world examples:

At a 200% inflation increase in less than 2 years :

$4 gallon of milk now costs $12

$9 move ticket now $27

$200 plane ticket is $600

$20,000 vehicle is $60,000

$3 gallon of gas is $9

$15 case of beer is $45

ETC. ETC. ETC.

Not to mention interest rates would be astronomically high, somewhere in the 40% range, maybe even higher. Most people will not have much left in the banks anyhow. . .

It seems pretty evident that with the above scenarios a rapid dollar decline would not be favorable for anyone. Retail sales would plummet domestically and worldwide, discretionary spending would be nonexistent, and the stock market would implode globally.

Some people reading this may be thinking, "Well that's ok, I have all my money in my Bitcoin wallet. I will be just fine! BTC is at $200,000"
To which, @rawdawg would respond, "*Not so fast genius! If Bitcoin is not available for use at the gas station, grocery store, airlines, or a majority of locations then you will not be able to use it for the basics. Not to mention a global depression would most likely send Bitcoin in a tailspin as well considering its current utility value is only around $1400/BTC"

It may seem obvious now why the Fed does everything in their power to make sure the dollar is stable and dollar liquidity in world markets is functioning properly. Whether we agree with Fed monetary policy is not relevant as their operations may be preventing a dire scenario from occurring. The US dollar may be a Ponzi Scheme but like any other good Ponzi if it fails too fast then it results in "game over" for all involved. In the case of the dollar, all involved, is the entire world.

@rawdawg is all for the rise of Bitcoin and also the eventual integration of cryptocurrency into the economy, but there needs to be more mass adoption at basic locations such as grocery stores, gas stations, retail stores etc. The speed of integration could be rapid but the decline of the dollar cannot. The infrastructure for a dollar alternative needs to be up and running before we ditch the current king.

With only 2% of the population owning any Bitcoin and with a much smaller % having a majority of their wealth in Bitcoin we are a long way away from mass adoption. This is actually a good thing, because it means that we have reached this height with only 2% owning any Bitcoin. Imagine when we get to 4%, 5%, 10% etc etc. The sky truly is the limit if an alternative crypto doesn't arise to overtake Bitcoin' spot.

@rawdawg would like to remind everyone that it is good to look at the decline of the US dollar with a critical eye. Rapid decline is a problem, and any signal by the Fed that there is an issue will create havoc. Please be careful before speaking with emotion about Bitcoin taking over the world, it's not a good thing until a majority of your neighborhood has most of their wealth in a crypto wallet.

@rawdawg says slow and steady will win this race. Anything sooner and we ALL lose.

Thanks for reading! :)

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Well that was a needed cold bucket of water in the face. As a new believer I am now sold on the power of cryptocurrency. After this blog certainly want it to be slow and steady. Had just decided this morning that everyone (like it or not) on my Christmas shopping list is getting BTC under the tree. Hope lots of other BTC users gift the same. Could get that 2% number up a bit.

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Yes, that is a great idea for Christmas gifts. It would be the equivalent of setting up an funding a bank account for someone who doesn't have one. A bank account that is most likely going to be the only type in the long haul. Great idea, think i will do the same! :)

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Thanks!! Appreciate the heads up!

This post has received gratitude of 1.54 % from @appreciator thanks to: @rawdawg.