Is It Possible To Predict End Of Bull Market?

in investing •  last year 


On the bull market prices are soaring giving no chance for any predictions. Some people tries to predict them basing on charts, but even this way does not work, when price growth is crazy.

 Instead of trying to predict the future let's analyze the past and think about what connected all the bull markets.

Common features, which connects all the bull markets so far:

1. Historically high price level.
2. Much speculation on margin.
3. Many offerings of new common-stock issues of poor quality.
4. High Price/Earnings ratio.
5. Low dividend yields against as against bond yields


Let's check, if all that features can be applied to cryptocurrency market and if we can suppose near end of bull market.

1. Historically high price level.

Almost every cryptocurrency is currently being sold more expensive than it was ever before. Bitcoin breaks all price records, even media started are interested and regularly talks about bitcoin.

  2. Much speculation on margin. 

Appears cryptocurrency exchanges where you can trade using "Financial Leverage", it means, you buy only 1 to 10 % percent bitcoins and rest you get on bitcoin secured loan. Similar possibilities starts to occur on Ethereum.

A man in the Netherlands even sold his house and everything he had to buy bitcoin. 

3. Many offerings of new common-stock issues of poor quality.

Currently are being emitted hundreds of worthless cryptocurrencies and tokens. Some of them originate from Hard- Forks.

Some projects which are in development phase are being valued on more than 1 Bilion dollars!!!
Examples: EOS, TRON, OMISEGO, Tether, Ardor, Populous.
Thats crazy valuation for project in development phase, with no clients existing.

Even personal tokens finds their clients. Tokens literally worth nothing, which do not even are real cryptocurrency, you cannot say any good word about such token.

Polish personal tokens: WapniakCoin, BezKanałuCoin, BentynCoin.

Here you can find more tokens created only to fill creators pocket.
https://personaltokens.co/#/

Many cryptocurrencies are slightly modificated bitcoin copies, simple to do with nice web page, examples:
DogeCoin, GridCoin, Zoin.

But there  are hundreds of  low quality cryptocurrencies. There so sense to analyze them deeply.

 4. High Price/Earnings ratio.
5. Low dividend yields against as against bond yields 

This features are very hard to relate to cryptocurrencies market, because there is no method of cryptocurrency valuation. It is worth to point out, that bitcoin lost its value (value  ≠ price) in last half year.
Bitcoin earlier was medium of almost free money exchange all over the world, currently because excess of transactions, it no longer offers free money transfer all other the world and fee can reach sometimes even 50$, you can even ask yourself a question why anybody want to use it?



Maybe bitcoin will raise another 100%, maybe even 500% I do not exclude this possibility. With this article I want only to highlight, that it is highly probable we are about to reach and of bull market.


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Thanks for your post. To answer your initial question "No". The higher the markets and the more of your features are fulfilled, the higher is the probability.
If you have a look at the DowJones. There "should" be at least a correction , I dont't write bear market. But the market goes up and up and up.
The interesting question is about time, but nobody could answer.