Is @scipio The Sun That The Oracle Predicted A Year Ago?steemCreated with Sketch.

in hopium •  2 months ago

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/partiko.io/img/stellabelle-is-scipio-the-sun-that-the-oracle-predicted-a-year-agot7gthx1i-1536165852681.png

Is @scipio The Sun That The Oracle in Steemicide Hotline Predicted A Year Ago?

In February of 2017 I created a drama about the tragedy of the trending pages in Steemit, and in it the oracle predicted that a sun would come in the future to heal the trending pages. A lot has changed since that time, and I’d like to take you on a ride into Steem’s history to explore this topic of the Tragedy of the Terrible Trending Page. (TTTP for short)

I suggested over a year ago that we should have new categories instead of Trending, Hot, Promoted (I have modified this list based on new updated info but the meat of this is the same):

Organic

This would be organic trending page using an algorithm that detects actual human engagement, and which is separate from whale power.

Whale

These are posts that are liked by the Steem whales.

Promoted

This tab would include all the posts that have been boosted by bidbots.

Hot

Still working on this, if you have ideas, let me know. Hot could be detecting posts that might have low UA, but could have tons of comments and upvotes by minnows….or it could be just high comment volume alone…..something that indicates new social activity of some kind.

Essentially, I suggested the idea that there would be a new trending page based on organic engagement not whale votes. It’s possible that a new dApp will adopt the concept of redefining what constitutes “organic trending” using the new data that is generated by the UA algorithm.
(UA stands for User Authority, see @steem-ua for details).

At the time I made this video, there was no User Authority, and there was low to moderate interest from the whales to redefine the algorithm, to work on detecting real, organic social engagement. LOL.

What we had instead were band-aid attempts, groups of well-meaning people leading all kinds of band-aid organizations, in an attempt to save the minnows of Steemit (essentially 95+% of the users from quitting, or committing Steemicide). I knew from the beginning of this Steem experiment that a new algorithm of detecting true social engagement was essential to fixing the problems of user experience, retention and its future value. I knew if Steem didn’t fix this, then a competitor would.

So let’s go down memory lane to February of 2017 when bidbots didn’t even exist on Steemit, but the Steem Guild did. The Steem Guild was comprised of a select group of curators who had been hand-picked by early investors/members. The Steem Guild members decided what was “quality content” and then upvoted those posts.

The controversy surrounding the Steem Guild was because these Steem Guild curators also upvoted their own posts With delegated SP (some upvoted themselves 100% while they upvoted others at say 5%), and the community really didn’t like that practice at all. Day after day, we saw the Steem Guild curators’ posts on the trending pages, and people were getting enraged…..

I was asked at one point to be a Steem Guild curator, but I declined to be a part of it due to it feeling kind of like a circle jerk club. This Steem Guild was another band-aid attempt to fix the ongoing problem of a Tragic Trending Page (I’m simplifying the problem of course).

DPOS is actually the root problem of the sucky trending page, and it doesn’t allow for new content creators to be discovered because DPOS doesn’t recognize accounts that are low SP, and we all realize that the whales aren’t sitting around in the “new” tags anymore, trying to find “good” content.

What we all should realize by now is that most whales are not curators at all. They have become the silent ghost investors, automating their income through the use of bidbots, and this has all come about because it’s the path of least resistance, and highest ROI for doing nothing. I’m not blaming the whales for doing this. But I think if it continues, it will further degrade any chance Steem has for mass adoption. Organic social activity has low ROI, that’s the core problem.

Here’s the video in which I predict that a “sun” will come in the future to fix the trending page. Please watch this video so you can understand what has gone on for a long time:

An organic trending page would fix this to a large degree and also change the atmosphere in the minds of creators. I think they would try harder if they knew that their efforts would be recognized by a new algorithm that detects some metrics besides whale votes. (I realize no algorithm is perfect, and constant improvement will be necessary)

With the advent of the dApps of course this all could change, and a dApp could come along any day now and decide to use the UA algorithm instead of the broken one that Steemit uses. Or, in a perfect world, we the community could get a hard fork initiated that would incorporate the UA algorithm into the code, thereby changing the DNA of Steem, improving the entire blockchain ecosystem, not just a front end.

Is this a utopian dream? Yes, but I can clearly see others who still share my dream.

Having an organic trending page would result in the following behavioral changes (I predict):

  1. Bidbot usage will become obsolete (authors will not want to be shown on the “Promoted” tab. They will want to be shown on the “Organic” page.)

  2. Authors and content creators will strive harder to create engaging content, not content that is geared towards whale preference.
    New creators, authors and vloggers will become more attracted to Steem because being on the Organic trending page will actually MEAN SOMETHING.

  3. The bidbot era will possibly come to a grinding halt, as real social engagement metrics become the thing that content creators strive for and which readers crave.

  4. Real organic social activity becomes the most lucrative game on Steem, and writers and content creators with actual real, engaged human followers become the new elite, replacing the writers who just pay bidbots and whales who just abuse their power.

  5. Paying bidbots will still occur, but it will be associated with spam and other lower quality activities, much like the clickbait advertising that exists below most websites.

It will still get clicks, but it won’t get as much attention as the organic trending page. New authors and creators will still use bidbots to get fast exposure, but the real payoffs will occur for those who play the long game, i.e., those who regularly create engaging stuff, and who also interact with their fans, and comment on other people’s stuff.

Will the owners of the bidbots declare war on me and others who want an Organic trending page? Quite possibly in the short-term.

I will piss people off no matter what I do or think. So I might as well just be honest, state my real opinions and deal with the chips wherever they fall. When the bidbots had taken firm control over Steem, it’s true, I walked away, and just considered that Steem would be relegated to the MySpace hall of fame. I went looking for other projects that are attempting to fix the Organic problem. I will have to write another post that delves into this.

The funny thing is that if we (the Organics) succeed, then I believe Steem has a chance to even disrupt Medium, and the bidbot owners won’t even need to earn their ROI because the value of Steem would go up dramatically (in my opinion).

People seem to forget that the value of Steem is directly proportional to the value that each of us has inside our minds, based on actual metrics. If 99% of the users have a shitty time on Steem, feel invisible, devalued and like dust, well, the experiment won’t work. User experience is the number one priority of any project, and if average users are ignored, then it’s game over.

If we collectively don’t value Steem and think it’s a cesspool of shitty, bidbot articles, low value shitposts, then no one else, including investors will dare touch this place. People are attracted to the inherent value of a system, and that value is made from the activities of the people who are involved in the project. If the quality of the people involved in the project starts to go down, then more and more corrupt people will be attracted, which will degrade the value even more. Conversely, if more talented people are attracted and strive for excellence, and confront the corrupt aspects of the system, thereby improving it, more high value people will join the project.

If we allow low-lying, profit-by-any-means scum to take over Steem, then yes, we are all doomed. And, selling witness votes is a terrible idea. Please put that back into the coffin labeled “Terrible Fucking Ideas That Should Be Buried.”

But we can be smarter than starting flag wars, we can change behaviors with new incentives. So why am I still here after taking a 4 month break? I will continue this conversation in my next post, and describe why I think that the UA algorithm is changing my mental landscape and is helping me learn what content is more engaging to others. More than that, it’s giving me Hopium, and yes, I do think that @scipio and @holger80 are the suns I predicted in my video from last year.

Carry on,
Stellabelle

Posted using Partiko iOS

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  

I watched the video, and my conclusion is that @mynameiscomic is very cute.

While the Oracle really needs to curb her on-camera smoking (sets a bad example to @mynameiscomic), it seems she correctly foretold the coming of @scipio, so is there any chance you can ask her what the price of Bitcoin will be in December?

Thanks. And give my regards to @mynameiscomic. :)

·

Thanks for watching

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

I asked and she said $10K

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

Hurray, I will sell my collection of David Hasselhoff memorabilia and invest immediately. Joking, I would never sell my David Hasselhoff memorabilia!

That said, thanks for writing that post about how to start on Steem. I'm talking about the old one, that they bundle with the FAQ, that recommends getting to know people by commenting, rather than jumping in blindly, making your posts, and naively assuming people will find you.

I have had a lot of fun following your advice, so much fun that I haven't even made a post yet.

Actually, sometimes I think the pressure put on people to post is misplaced. If people want to post, they will, of their own volition. But if someone likes reading other people's posts, that's a good thing, because it shows that people are writing stuff worth reading.

When I watch the telly in the evening, noone ever jumps out of the screen and asks me when I'm going to make my first tv program. But here, so many people are like "post post post!" LOL.

Now to wind down, I'll watch episode 807 of "Knight Rider," and play the album "David Hasselhoff Sings America" as I drop off to sleep. :)

·
·
·

This was an incredibly thoughtful comment and worthy of a post! Lol. Thanks for that feedback on my article as I did not even know it’s used in the bundle! Interesting......

Posted using Partiko iOS

Hopium!

·

You’re here.

Posted using Partiko iOS

Speaking of which, I’m considering getting bidbots on this post for more exposure because I feel that it’s my best post of the last six months

Posted using Partiko iOS

Just vlogged on UA and its potential, but didn't mention the Trending page.

Potentially, is my short answer :)

People like yourself, delegating way over the requirements to receive 7 votes a week, are going to be essential in the success of UA. (Thanks!)

Will Steemit inc get involved once the coding dies down and it stabilizes to a point where most are happy? I hope so.

Invest in UA everyone!!

·

Let’s just go back to the way things ran before and take matters into our own hands. A new dApp that features the organic trending page would be in HIGH DEMAND

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

Just to play devils advocate, it could be that some are happy with these huge looking post payouts in the shop window. New users will not be aware the post has been paid for 😕

·
·
·

C’mon! Investors are not stupid! You don’t see Peter Thiel knocking on Steem’s door! Smart money is not here...

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

“Once the coding dies down “.... what do you mean?

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

They are still working on the algorithms, tightening things up and improving. I expect more of this to happen for a little while yet.

To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.

Brought to you by @tts. If you find it useful please consider upvoting this reply.

Robots should not be allowed ...

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

Good bots should be ok but idiots creating stupid bots should be exterminated

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

Which ones are the Good Bots ?

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·
·

Cheetah sadkitten all the steemcleaners ones

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·
·
·

Ok.. that is good to know. I thought they were all evil

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·
·
·
·

No many are good. It’s the people behind the bots that make or break them

Posted using Partiko iOS

For the timebeing i can say yes....he brought a sudden uproar on calm looking steemit with UA.

Posted using Partiko Android

Im planning to include this to SteemPlus as soon as an API is released.
Can t wait to see something else than chbartist 's crap on the said Organic Trending Page.
I m just worried that with a lot of users following them, the bid bots might have a high UA score.

·

The current trending page is not a real trending one. If we are honest we would all agree that it is indeed the PROMOTED PAGE, the trending page is comprised of the posts that are upvoted by Steem-ua

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

So SteemPlus would use the data from API of Steem UA to create a real organic trending page? Please explain further thanks

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

Yes, that is something we have in mind and after talking with scipio, it seems likely to come out in the future. That would be a costly routine to run on their end, so the more support they get, the earlier this will come out, I bet!
When it does, I could easily add a new tab to Steemit through SteemPlus, that shows the real organic trending page.
I don t disagree that doing it via our extension is a band-aid, but hey if you want it directly on Steemit, don t hold your breath ;)

Still, there are two possible problems with this approach:

  • Bid bots probably have high UA since they have lots of followers, including whales (@jerrybanfield is in the top 100 for example).
  • High UA users could become bid bots used to get higher in the organic page. It can be mitigated by power users unfollowing those who would do so.
·
·
·

I don’t use Steemit.com much these days as I’m happy with Partiko...

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·
·
·

Maybe but most users use and will keep using Steemit. For lots, STEEM = Steemit.
So for these change to be effective, SteemPlus won t be enough, Partiko implementing it won t be enough either, but it sets a trend among the Apps and finally reaches Steemit, we will have done a good job!

·
·
·
·
·

I actually think that within one year Steemit.com will no longer be the dominant platform. I’d like to bet on this..

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·
·

Good points. Jerry was a big content producer though so I think that’s why his number is so high

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

The level of disgust and repulsion in me concerning the failed trending page could fill several novels. I will still argue that new front ends are band-aids and what’s needed is an entire overhaul of the code, so that real engagement becomes the desired metric and the one which is more lucrative than anything else.

Posted using Partiko iOS

I don't know! But I know @scipio himself could be a oracle!

In my worldcup contest he predicted all the winners for the last 16!

(https://steemit.com/worldcup/@futurethinker/announcing-the-oracle-of-the-world-cup-2018)

·

Really??? Yeah he might be a sun.

Posted using Partiko iOS

Banana program week 3 and 4 are waiting for you, to be verified.

Posted using Partiko Android

·

I already upvoted and advised on week 3

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

Yes, you upvoted for week 4, but my week # 3 pending. I have corrected all shortfalls as you advised, so please please check that one, if right please upvote.

Posted using Partiko Android

·
·

Hope you will not disappoint me, rather encourage to participate with more energy.

Posted using Partiko Android

How is my banana week 4 entry, I didn't get verification whether it was entertained by or not. Pl check it and reply

@scipio should develop the www.scipioversionofsteemit.com and we all move there! go go go! XD

·

Maybe the influence of scipio changes the Steem blockchain as a whole

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

wow! That would be huge! let's hope for the best :D Scip for presidente!!!

·
·
·

Yeah

Posted using Partiko iOS

These are great ideas. Much better than the existing

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

Hahahahaha and these are my old ideas generated over a year ago.... same problem exists now except it’s caused by bid bots not the Steem Guild. Let’s hope that bidbots are just a phase that dies much like all the other band-aid attempts before it. We didn’t have bidbots before so it’s not actually necessary.... real commerce would replace it.

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

Agreed... the bots are ruining Steemit and should be destroyed.

Posted using Partiko iOS

Good ideas.

Hot - Could be posts that attract views and comments from the highest number of unique accounts. It is basically viral if everyone around the world is viewing it, right?

To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:

Without a doubt

Hi! I'm a bot, and this answer was posted automatically. Check this post out for more information.

·

Bang on again ball, how do you do it?!

·
·

Hahahahaha it’s hilarious!!!o

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

It's amazing how often this thing is right.

·

Hahahahaha Even bots know it! This was the most hilarious bot answer!!!!

Posted using Partiko iOS

What kind of metrics would you consider for determining what articles should be included in an "organic" trending list?

There are various ways to calculate things, as a trending list should generally refer to "recent" posts, it should already be possible to come up with something that is much better than what it is now without immediately requiring the input of UA calculations or needing to try and process the entire blockchain.

·

Social engagement

Posted using Partiko iOS

Or maybe Hot categories...

Posted using Partiko iOS

Hi @stellabelle!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 7.133 which ranks you at #74 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has dropped 1 places in the last three days (old rank 73).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 450 contributions, your post is ranked at #7.

Evaluation of your UA score:
  • Your follower network is great!
  • The readers appreciate your great work!
  • Great user engagement! You rock!

Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server

I think the new tab is OK since it doesn't discriminate at all. It just shows everything.

Your suggestion of the Organic tab is excellent, I'm not so sure about the Whale tab though, but maybe as there would be other kind of tabs too.

Promoted
This tab would include all the posts that have been boosted by idiots.

Now you lost me. Unless it means that one of the idiots boosting posts would be me, then it's OK.

This tab would include all the posts that have been boosted by bidbots.

Oh, it's BIDBOTS. Now it makes sense. My morning has barely began and this happens. Although I could say that it's Friday and maybe I should just stop commenting and start drinking.

Maybe it would be a good idea to build a new Steem Guild, but with the kind of upvoting algorithm that would exclude the Guilders from the Steem Guild upvoted list when they are included in the Guild. And the kind of code that would alert Steemians and Guilders if any of the Guilders upvote themselves or the Guilders over certain amount per day. And the Guilding shouldn't be a permanent job. Only for few weeks or few months at tops. And there should be enough people in it.

But I have no idea how the Steem Guild worked then, only the general idea about it as I just heard it for the first time in this post.

Anyways, good ideas!

UA seems like a good thing. @steem-ua not so much.

I agree very strongly with your points.

Thanks!

SOC (SMTs, Oracles, and Communities) if they ever materialize, will enable communities to eliminate stake-weighting, and institute 1a1v, which will make an organic trending page for those communities possible.

I greatly look forward to SOC because of this. I am confident that most folks would prefer a fair reckoning of their content as based on the response of actual people, rather than bots, stake, or automated mechanisms of any stripe or kind.

Thanks for a great stance on THE topic of existential import to Steemit!

·

Yes I’m very interested in communities also.... I think it can solve a lot of these issues

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

SMTs before communities seems like a dumb move tho

Posted using Partiko iOS

·
·

I believe that SMTs, Oracles, and Communities together concatenate into a complete paradigm shift. That's why I use the term SOC, as to do so they need to all work together.

·
·
·

Then, if it's in order of importance, maybe you'd want to swap SOC by COS instead. };)

ummm..where did you find the flip phones ?

·

In the closet of old useless tech

Posted using Partiko iOS

This comment was posted to another post, by lextenebris 11 days ago:

"I feel like I owe it to you to actually have a brief discussion about UA and all its works, but it will be brief since I've already taken the drugs which will ease me into a dreamless sleep and because I've written so much on the subject over the last week or so in Replies as it is.

So, the summary: UA as a mechanism is a joke, Steem-UA is a pyramid scam effectively levering those delegations to be laundered by the process of vote dispersion, and that's it. UA is an ordinal ranking based on follow edges which, once all is said and done, has some filtering with negligible observable effect aimed at removing obvious bot groups and minimizing the impact from users typically referred to as "lower value." What it actually does is reduce the active user list to that of those who have engaged in a follow operation or a delegation to Steem-UA, which looks a lot like the ordinal rankings of accounts on the system via SP with some very lightweight changes based on relatively clear and observable traits.

That makes you a just a restatement of SP, for the most part, with some chunks cut out, and Steem-UA just the latest bid bot to come along.

Because the system is essentially seeded with witnesses being the most trusted entities in the system and trust moving out via the factors of who those witnesses follow – your ranking, your qualifying value in UA isn't dependent on anything you've written or have been involved in saying, necessarily. It is purely and simply taking your following/followed behaviors as proxies for the quality of your writing and going from there.

I've been dealing with @scipio for six months or so on the underlying architecture for UA, pointing out where programmatically it is unable to match the promises that were established as the base measure for the thing, and likewise being increasingly creeped out by this Steem-UA project which is being run as a black box, not coming forward with the very clear proof that claims have been made about UA achieving (easy mechanical recognition of who the spammers are on the steem blockchain as well as the vote selling bots), but instead rolling straight out with a vote buying bot of the most transparent sort.

And all the while, all of the focus is on follows – an account-level operation – and never a word about actual content and how it should matter, because it doesn't.

I have a longer, more detailed, more math-forward version of this discussion that I have been debating posting on Steemit, but the time may have come.

Regardless, congratulations on identifying a pyramid scheme before you got too far sucked in. This is a useful skill to have."

·

Nice contributions you got there. I read all through and was informed and motivated. @surfyogi

My tongue looks exactly like the in the picture!

·

Oow yeah!

·

Hahahahaha

Posted using Partiko iOS