恒大倒塌，房地产黄金时代终结，中国土地财政的秘密揭晓

还是说一说许家印吧，毕竟这是一项标志性的影响深远的事件。作为中国房地产的龙头老大，他的倒塌意味着房地产高速发展的时代已经结束了。这就像加密货币领域的第二大交易所FTX倒闭，预示着开启了加密货币市场持续至今的长期熊市。许家印的被抓和恒大的彻底大戏落幕，也预示着中国的房地产终于结束了只涨不跌的黄金时代，进入了痛苦的调整期。

有人说恒大的遭遇反映了中国民营企业的一个缩影，这话其实有待商榷。恒大虽然是名副其实的民营企业，是许老板的私人企业，但它在经济中所扮演的角色却绝非一个私营企业这么简单。因为中国的房地产和土地财政紧密挂钩，而各种大型房地产企业实际上的角色就是政府的包税人。

一般来说，政府的收入都是来自于税收的，但是税收是一件很麻烦的事情。虽然平时大多数人都将爱国挂在嘴上，但是如果真的从他身上拿走一些财物，每个人都会感觉到疼，就像一个流传很广的笑话。一个人问一位农民，如果你有一万块钱，你愿意捐给国家吗？农民当然表态愿意。那人又问，如果国家不要你这一万块钱，国家需要一头牛，你愿意捐出来吗？农民就说，那不行。为什么呢？因为我真的有一头牛。

所以要想能够征收到足够的税收，就得供养一大批强制民众交税的税力，而政府的工作效率又是极其低下的。这些税力征收上来的税款，很大一部分在征收过程中要漏进他们的腰包，而国家还要供养税力，所以国家直接征税的成本收益比是非常低的。

而通过卖地的形式获取财政收入，由开发商通过银行贷款将地买下来，然后在上面建房子，以商品房的名义出售给韭菜，这个过程实际上就是开发商和银行当中介，韭菜通过买房，将自己的税收贡献给地方政府的财政。在这个过程中，政府不需要增加和雇佣任何税力，却能取得巨大的收入，这个效率比亲自征收不知道要高到哪里去了。

其实类似的包税人制度在古罗马共和国快速扩张的时期就已经出现过了。罗马的版图不断地扩大，不断有新的地区进入罗马的统治，但是罗马是共和制，政府规模非常小，政府官员也都是由公民自愿担当，没有任何的薪水。比如著名的前三巨头之一的克拉苏，就是自己花钱组织军队去围剿斯巴达克斯的。所以政府也没有专门的税收机构和税收官员，而从新征服的地区取得税收的办法就是将税收工作承包给包税人。

还有从草原入主中原的蒙元，他对统治中原的那套官僚机构也没有多大的兴趣，所以蒙元也是实行的包税人制度。因为这些包税人只是半官方的身份，没有受到很多限制，而他们获取收入的手段就变得非常多样，而不是像政府税务官员那样一律强制征收。他们也会通过经营各种产业，比如高利贷、购买土地等等来获取收入，将收入中的一部分上交给朝廷作为税收，而剩下的就都是自己的了。

可以看到这种制度其实和恒大这样的大型房地产公司在本质上是非常类似的。但是政府机构就是这样，效率低下，而且缺乏监管。这土地财政的钱来得太容易了，花起来自然也就大手大脚没有节制。就像《让子弹飞》里面的鹅城县长，税收都已经预征到99年以后了。也许在我们观众看来就是笑话，但是实际上土地财政也是一回事。因为买房的韭菜们也是从银行贷款买来的房子，所以这就相当于这笔钱最后都进了土地财政的腰包。这就相当于韭菜们再还上20年到30年的贷款，这就相当于将今后20年和30年的税一次都交给了地方政府。

如今恒大如果倒闭了，那么他们这样动辄上万亿的负债就好理解了。因为根据一些房地产商的爆料，比如著名的大炮现在还在监狱服刑的任志强就曾经说过，房地产收入的五成到七成最后都归了地方政府，剩下的两到三成就是开发商和建筑商的利润和成本。而实际上房地产商的利润率也就在10%左右。这也就好理解了为什么恒大这样的企业可以不间断地从银行里面借出钱来购买土地，而银行的风控也完全不管不顾。因为银行的高层都知道借钱的真正的借钱者并不是恒大这样的房地产企业，而是在幕后的地方政府。这也可以说是房地产业是一个中国特色的，将政府的债务金融化和货币化的方式。相比于美国式的美联储直接印钱购买美国国债这样的明目张胆的债务货币化制造通胀，将政府财政扩张债务货币化包装起来，形成房地产业也算是一项精巧的发明了。只是这终究也是不可持续的，出来混迟早都要还。

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Let’s talk about Xu Jiayin. After all, this is a landmark event with far-reaching influence. As the leading real estate company in China, its collapse means that the era of rapid real estate development is over. This is just like the collapse of FTX, the second largest exchange in the cryptocurrency field, which heralded the beginning of the long-term bear market in the cryptocurrency market that continues to this day. The arrest of Xu Jiayin and the end of the complete drama of Evergrande also heralded the end of Hong Kong and China’s real estate. It has entered a golden era of only rising but not falling, and has entered a period of painful adjustment. Some people say that Evergrande’s reaction is a microcosm of China’s private enterprises. This statement is actually open to debate. Although Evergrande is a veritable private enterprise and the private enterprise of Boss Xu, its role in the economy is by no means as simple as a private enterprise, because China's real estate and land finance are closely linked, and various large-scale real estate companies The actual role of enterprises is that of tax collectors for the government. Generally speaking, government revenue comes from taxation, but taxation is a very troublesome thing. Although most people usually talk about patriotism, if some property is really taken away from him, everyone will feel that Tommy is like a widely circulated joke. A person asks a farmer, if you If you have 10,000 yuan, are you willing to donate it to the country? The farmer immediately expressed his willingness, and the man asked again, if the country does not need your ten thousand yuan and the country needs a cow, would you be willing to donate it? The farmers said that was not possible, why? Because I really have a cow, so if I want to collect sufficient taxes, I have to support a large number of people who are forced to pay taxes, and the government's work efficiency is extremely low. A large part of the taxes collected by these tax rates are leaked into their pockets during the collection process, and the state also has to support the tax rates. Therefore, the cost-to-consumption ratio of direct taxation by the state is very low. To obtain fiscal revenue from land sales, developers buy the land through bank loans, then build houses on it and sell it to Leeks in the name of commercial housing. This process is actually that developers and banks act as intermediaries or purchase houses, and contribute their tax revenue to local government finances. In this process, the government does not need to increase or hire immigrants to tax, but it can obtain huge revenue. This efficiency is much higher than that of collecting taxes in person. In fact, the government-like tax collector system exists in early childhood education. During the period of rapid expansion of the ancient Roman Republic, Rome's territory continued to expand, and new areas continued to enter Roman rule. However, Rome was a republic with a very small scale of government, and government officials were all voluntary citizens without any salary. For example, Crassus, the famous top three giants, spent his own money to organize an army to encircle and suppress Spartacus. Therefore, the government does not have specialized tax agencies and tax officials. The way to obtain tax revenue from the newly conquered areas was to contract the tax collection work to tax collectors, as well as the Mongolian Yuan Dynasty who invaded the Central Plains from the grasslands. He also had little interest in the bureaucracy that ruled the Central Plains, so the Mongolian Yuan Dynasty also implemented a tax collector system. Because these tax collectors only have a semi-official status and do not lack many restrictions, their means of obtaining income have become very diverse. Instead of imposing mandatory collection like government tax officials, they will also operate various industries, such as Earn income from loan sharking, purchasing land, etc., and hand over part of the income to the court as taxes, and the rest is yours. It can be seen that this system is actually very similar to the methods used by large-scale real estate companies such as Baoluo Structure and Evergrande. However, government agencies are so inefficient and lack supervision. The land finance money comes too easily. , it is natural to spend money lavishly and without restraint, just like letting bullets fly into the forehead. In the end, it has been predicted that it will be ninety-nine years later. Maybe this is a joke in the eyes of us viewers. But in fact, land finance is exactly the same thing. Because the leeks who buy a house also get a loan from a bank to buy it. So this is equivalent to this money. In the end, a large part of it went into the pockets of the land finance. This is equivalent to the leeks paying back the loan for twenty to thirty years, which is equivalent to the future. Twenty- and thirty-year taxes are paid to local governments at once. Now if Evergrande understands real estate companies like Evergrande as tax collectors, then it would be easier to understand why they easily have trillions of liabilities. Because according to the revelations of some real estate developers, such as the famous Cannon, Ren Zhiqiang is still serving a sentence in prison. It has been said that 50% to 70% of real estate income is ultimately attributed to local governments, and the remaining 2 to 30% is the profits of developers and builders, and the costs of builders. In fact, the profit margin of real estate developers is only about 10%. This makes it easy to understand why companies like Evergrande can continuously borrow money from banks to purchase land, and the bank's risk control is completely ignored, because the bank's senior executives know that borrowing money is really borrowing money. The real estate company is not a real estate company like Evergrande, but the local government behind the scenes. This can also be said to be the real estate industry. It should be said to be a financialization and monetization of government debt with Chinese characteristics compared to the American style of the Federal Reserve directly printing money to purchase US Treasury bonds. Such blatant debt monetization creates inflation, and packaging government and fiscal expansion and debt monetization into the real estate industry is an ingenious invention. At this time, this is ultimately unsustainable. Sooner or later, if you come out and hang out, you will have to pay it back.

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还是说一说许家印吧,毕竟这是一项标志性的影响深远的事件。
作为中国房地产的龙头老大,他的倒塌意味着房地产高速发展的时代已经结束了。
这就像加密货币领域的第二大交易所FTX倒闭,预示着开启了加密货币市场持续至今的长期熊市。
许家印的被抓和恒大的彻底大戏落幕,也预示着中国的房地产终于结束了,只涨不跌的黄金时代进入了痛苦的调整期。
有人说恒大的遭遇反应是中国民营企业的一个缩影,这话其实有待商榷。
恒大虽然是名副其实的民营企业,是许老板的私人企业,但它在经济中所扮演的角色却绝非一个私营企业这么简单。
因为中国的房地产和户地财政紧密挂钩,而各种大型房地产企业实际上的角色就是政府的包税人。
一般来说,政府的收入都是来自于税收的,但是税收是一件很麻烦的事情。
虽然平时大多数人都将爱国挂在嘴上,但是如果真的从他身上拿走一些财物,每个人都会感觉到疼,就像一个流传很广的笑话。
一个人问一位农民,如果你有一万块钱,你愿意捐给国家吗?农民当自己表态愿意。
那人又问,如果国家不要你这一万块钱,国家需要一头牛,你愿意捐出来吗?农民就说,那不行。
为什么呢?因为我真的有一头牛,所以要想能够征收到足够的税收,就得供养一大批强制民众交税的税力,而政府的工作效率又是极其低下的。
这些税力征收上来的税款,很大一部分在征收过程中要跑锚地漏进他们的腰包,而国家还要供养税力,所以国家直接征税的成本消费比是非常低的。
而通过卖地的形式获取财政收入,由开发商通过银行贷款将地买下来,然后在上面建房子,以商品房的名义出售给韭菜,这个过程实际上就是开发商和银行当中介,韭菜通过买房,将自己的税收入贡献给地方政府的财政。
在这个过程中,政府不需要增加和雇佣移民税力,却能取得巨大的收入,这个效率比亲自征收不知道要高到哪里去了。
其实类似的包税人制度在古罗马共和国快速扩张的时期,罗马的版图不断地扩大,不断有新的地区进入罗马的统治,但是罗马是共和制,政府规模非常小,政府官员也都是由公民自愿担当,没有任何的薪水。
比如著名的前三巨头克拉苏,就是自己花钱组织军队去围剿斯巴达克斯的,所以政府也没有专门的税收机构和税收官员,而从新征服的地区取得税收的办法就是将税收工作承包给包税人。
还有从草原入主中原的蒙原,他对统治中原的那套官僚机构也没有多大的兴趣,所以蒙原也是实行的包税人制度,因为这些包税人只是半官方的身份,没有缺少很多限制,而他们的获取收入的手段就变得非常多样,
而不是像政府税务官员那样一律强制征收,他们也会通过经营各种产业,比如高利贷,购买土地等等来获取收入,将收入中的一部分上交给朝廷作为税收,而剩下的就都是自己的了。
可以看到这种制度其实和在本质上和恒大这样的大型房地产公司是非常类似的,但是政府机构就是这样,效率低下,而且缺乏监管,这土地财政的钱来得太容易了,花起来自然也就大手大脚没有节制,就像让子弹飞里面的鹅城线,税收都已经预征到99年以后了。
也许在我们观众看来就是笑话,但是实际上土地财政是完全也是一回事,因为买房的韭菜们也是从银行贷款买来的,来买的,所以这就相当于这笔钱最后都进了,很大一部分都进了土地财政的腰包,这就相当于然后韭菜们再还上20年到30年的贷款,
这就相当于将今后20年和30年的税一次都交给了地方政府,如今恒大如果把恒大这样的房地产企业理解为包税人,那么他们这样动辄上万亿的负债就好理解了,
因为根据一些房地产商的爆料,比如著名的大炮现在还在监狱服刑的人志强就曾经说过,房地产收入的五成到七成最后都归了地方政府,剩下的两到三成就是开发商和建筑商的利润,建筑商的成本,
而实际上房地产商的利润率也就在10%左右,这也就好理解了为什么恒大这样的企业可以不间断地从银行里面借出钱来购买土地,而银行的风控也完全不管不顾,因为银行的高层都知道借钱,真正的借钱者并不是恒大这样的房地产企业,
而是在幕后的地方政府,这应该也可以说是房地产业应该说是一个中国特色的,将政府的债务金融化和货币化相比于美国式的美联储直接印钱购买美国国债这样的明目张胆的债务货币化制造通胀,将政府财政扩张债务货币化包装起来,
形成房地产业也算是一项精巧的发明了,只是这终究也是不可持续的,出来混迟早都要还。