My thoughts on the COVID-19 situation as an individual
There are currently over 280,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection. Of which over 90,000 have recovered but there have also been over 11,000 deaths. These numbers are increasing by the hour as more and more people are tested.
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When I first wrote about this virus, it was just starting to spread within China. Being a Singaporean, we were particularly sensitive to things happening in China as Singapore's economy is highly dependent on China. However, not many people from the western world, were paying attention to it back then. Now, fear and panic had spread throughout the world as the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic on 11th March. It is amazing how things change so drastically just in a span of 2 months.
Here are some of thoughts as an individual...
Statistics and numbers aren't that important
Day in and out, we see numbers and statistics of COVID-19 flashing on mainstream media. However, to me, these numbers are not that important. Different countries are handling the situation differently. There are varying degrees on how countries can reduce human contacts and there are also different levels of testing done. In the UK, the government is even talking about building herd immunity.
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Furthermore, there are also continuous skepticism on the numbers reported by governments. Particularly those from China and Iran. Personally, I think we will never be able to get an accurate statistics and the best statistics we can get is probably the one from the Diamond Princess cruise.
What happened to the Diamond Princess cruise was unfortunate, especially during the period where all 3700+ passengers and crews were quarantine on the ship. However, the event also turned out to be probably the best "experiment" giving us the useful data.
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Of the 3,618 people who were tested, 712 were tested positive for COVID-19. Among them, 333 exhibits no symptoms. This can be good or bad depending on how you see it. The good thing is that a good portion of people who gets this virus will only have very mild or no symptom. On the flip side, this also means that the virus can spread undetected. Since asymptomatic patients can also spread this virus albeit being less probable.
Further statistics from the Diamond Princess show that the serious complication rate is at 11% and death rate is at about 1%.
I previously also wrote another article based on the statistics from Singapore. In that article I estimated the serious complication rate to be about 28.5%. However, if I use the same calculation on today's reported statistics from Singapore, the serious complication rate is about 13%.
What this means is that the numbers really vary from country to country and also the environment. There are many moving parts and it is not that useful to draw conclusions about the serious complication rates and death rates for now.
Individual's responsibilities
Regardless the death rate and infection rate of this virus, there are things that individuals should do. Even without this pandemic, good personal hygiene should be practiced. And it is even more important given the current situation.
I make it a point to wash my hands as often as possible these days. I also make a conscious effort to avoid touching my face. Social distancing means reducing physical contact with other people. But depending on where you are, you might be able to still head out and get some Sun and fresh air.
This is probably also a good time to kick some bad habits such as smoking or excessive alcohol consumption. The key thing is to maintain your body's immunity so that even if you get the virus, you reduce the chance of developing serious complications.
I personally think that wearing a mask is social responsibility because the virus can spread without symptoms and you can never be sure if you are carrier unless you are tested. However, I understand that masks are difficult to obtain in some places. So I suggest to wear a mask whenever feasible.
If the Diamond Princess data is the best statistics we have, this virus isn't as lethal as portrayed in mainstream and social media. Fear will feed on fear and generate more fear. If everyone do their part as an individual, I am sure humanity will survive this ordeal. Stay calm, active and healthy.
The virus keeps spreading like wild fire and it is seriously scary, I hope things get good as soon as possible.
Yes, it is indeed scary and many people are panicking. That is why we should remain calm so that we can help ourselves and others
hi @culgin
It is very difficult to get a clear picture. Many countries don't have the ability to test. I have had a continuous cough for the last week but have no way of being tested. All I can do is isolate with my family who are luckily all well. Each country is testing and reporting in different ways so it is difficult to take any meaning from what they are reporting.
Interesting statistics about the Diamond Princess - that does give a degree of hope when we see how many people potentially are asymptomatic.
That is right because different governments are handling the crisis differently. Some countries have more advanced medical facilities while some don't. But those are things we cannot really control, hence we should focus on what we can do as an individual.
And yea, the Diamond Princess data is by far the most accurate statistics in my humble opinion.
While I take everything governments, mainstream media, and bloggers say about the virus with a grain of salt, I will self-isolate until everything becomes more clear. The best case scenario is that this was all an overreaction, but better safe than sorry.
Well, that is one way to do social distancing :)
In where I stay, the government has not stopped work and school. Hence, we still need to move around. Just have to be more mindful and careful.
Hi @culgin
Thanks for this update and sharing your thoughts on this particularry depressing subject.
Indeed.
Seeing west of europe and learning how people deny obvious threat and still socialize with each other is just completely shocking.
UK made so many mistakes already. They will probably suffer more than Italy or Spain does :(
I even bought a full protecting suit. With solid mask, gloves, 70% alocohol spray etc. And mostly I stay home at all costs.
Have a great monday :)
Yours, Piotr
Is it this suit? Haha..
Hi my friend,
I see that you apply the most important measures to fight against the virus. I live in Switzerland and we are strongly hit by the virus with one of the highest density of cases in the world. What I can tell you is that to fight against the virus speed is of essence. The faster people stay indoors and don't meet with other people anymore, the quicker we will get rid of it.
I'm staying indoor as much as possible with my family and we try to shop online to get food and essential goods. When I go out, I try to stay away from everybody. The virus is often underestimated but it is terrible. Kids are quite safe not to die from it but they can carry the virus. Most people don't realize that they actually carry the virus and they infect others without realizing.
I know somebody who simply had a slight cough. She infected her whole family, 2 doctors and is now dead. The best way to deal with this virus is to believe that you yourself might carry it and not to try to infect others.
All the best,
Achim
Yes, the risk of asymptomatic transmission is real. I fully agree with you that one should have a mindset that he/she is a potential carrier and practice social distancing, good hygiene and if possible, wear a mask.
Resteemed already :) Upvote on the way
Australia has changed very quickly. No more hospitality work, so many people trying to get government payments. Lockdown next week. Bars and restaurants closed.