Let a duck be a duck and let gold be gold.

in #gold6 years ago (edited)

There seems to be this idea in the gold community that there could be a "gold backed crypto".

That there's some merger out there between precious metals and 'blockchain' and this is the real way that a cryptocurrency might work out.

I never know what specifically they mean, and sometimes I wonder if they really do either.

I don't have access to the mind of Peter Schiff. But I did notice @roysebag (creator of goldmoney.com) recently joined Steemit and shared a similar perspective near the end of his first post. And I was happy to reply and question what he meant.

To my chagrin he did not answer, so I still don't know.

As far as I can figure, you don't gain anything by adding a blockchain to the mix. The blockchain is a convoluted process that we go thru so that nobody has a chance to cheat. If we're trusting someone to hold the gold, what point is there to having a blockchain?

It'll be cheaper and easier to just have a centralized ledger.

To me it seems like gold people sense that blockchain is here to stay, and then just assume gold must have some role in it. So that's how they come up with this idea, whether or not they've thought thru the Xs and Os and have a real picture of what they mean and why it would work.

But gold can still be gold.

Gold has always had a purpose and there's no reason it wouldn't continue to have a purpose even deep into an all-out cryptopia.

This first dawned on me when I was reading a post from the great @lydon.sipe, where he mentioned gold and silver coming in handy when the internet and electricity are down, such as what happened in Puerto Rico.

What dawned on me is that right now we also can lean on fiat paper notes for this. But as fiat becomes obsolete, all the more important that we have gold and silver.

And while the chance of electricity going out is rather slim, it's a thing that can happen. So kind of like the way a hospital will always have a backup power generator (even if you always hope today doesn't seem like the day you'll actually use it), in a full-blown crytopia it maybe would emerge as a wise norm of behavior to keep a small stash of metal tucked away.

And even this narrow use case is a huge leap forward from what role gold has right now in fiat world.

Gold always maintains its value

They tell you: 100 years ago, an ounce of gold bought a nice suit. Today, an ounce of gold buys a nice suit.

But let's consider that this is actually a two way street.

Yes, gold maintains a steady purchasing power. So doesn't it feel kind of odd that after all these years it would buoy up to new heights and hold?

But this is exactly what would need to happen if gold were to become the world's commonly used currency.

(To a smaller extent this would need to happen if blockchain or any kind of technology offered a meaningful improvement to gold.)

The smart money is allowed to speculate and bid things up ahead of time. So as it stands it doesn't seem like the market believes a change of this caliber is likely.

To whatever extent 1 oz of gold will always buy a nice suit, then you have to imagine its role in the world taking shape around that. When you emphasize the idea that this is what it has always bought, then you're also saying it's unlikely it would start to buy 25 suits.

Conclusion; tldr

Gold by its nature will always be a physical object and not seamless to pass back and forth. Other people can hold it and issue a ledger note that's easy to pass back and forth. But you'll have to trust them and pay them for the chore of doing it. (Blockchain doesn't change this.)

There's no way to remove the aspect that gold is a physical thing.

And while its physical nature has some upsides, you don't get to have those and pretend there are no downsides.

To me it seems gold's role -- at least, if history is any guide -- will tend to always be things that make it so "1 oz buys a nice suit".

It becomes a more useful or less useful form of money as you turn the dial across various different stages of human development. Without much technology, it's the best possible money. And it's also a lot of work to make a suit. As it becomes easier to make the things we need, this is naturally correlated with gold being a less ideal money.

And so, almost as tho there's a natural balance and harmony to it all, this is why gold always tends to buy the same amount of stuff.

History tells us gold will always have value and a role as money -- but the role doesn't need to be the #1 commonly used form of it. And I think the gold crowd is misinterpreting what gold's history and financial tradition are actually telling us.

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Gold is like a religion to these people. We really should form a troll army and just go after the gold bugs. The entire point (or at least a major point) of blockchain technology is to eliminate the need to trust a third party (as much as possible/practicable). When you bring gold into the equation, you need (1) people with guns to guard it (2) to TRUST A THIRD party not to steal it, or loan it out for profit (pretty much steal it).

Telling these gold bugs that crypto is better than gold in anyway is like telling a Christian that Christ is not the son of God.

And while the chance of electricity going out is rather slim, it's a thing that can happen.

If a nuclear bomb is ever fired, and it explodes in the atmosphere, it would knock the power out in the land below. This was the plot at the end the comic Dark Knight Returns (animation version clip below) and I've confirmed its somewhat accurate. You know there is a part of these gold bugs that fantasize about this happening so they can be "right."

Gold is like a religion to these people. We really should form a troll army and just go after the gold bugs.

Lol ya! They're fun because they're not trollbags who will be emotional and manipulative, like a lot of categories of people. Yet, they're totally wrong on this topic.

I think in general any time someone says "the blockchain is good tho" they should need to explain why and how it will be used.

Telling these gold bugs that crypto is better than gold in anyway is like telling a Christian that Christ is not the son of God.

Right, it should be obvious that there are certain aspects that are better about crypto and certain aspects that are better about gold.

But they want to square the circle to where gold somehow also possesses what Bitcoin is better at. Which I don't think is a thought that would even occur to anyone, except that they start with the assumption that gold has to be the commonly used money and then trace backwards.

If a nuclear bomb is ever fired, and it explodes in the atmosphere, it would knock the power out in the land below. This was the plot at the end the comic Dark Knight Returns (animation version clip below) and I've confirmed its somewhat accurate. You know there is a part of these gold bugs that fantasize about this happening so they can be "right."

Haha ya, and they wouldn't truly be right (of course), because nobody disagrees that gold would be a better money if there were no power or internet. It would just mean the landscape regressed into this unfortunate scenario where now gold is effective again :p

Lol you are heading into war with the gold community, this should get interesting!!!

lol 😁

Bring your big guns to the big wars. Pretty sure I have the winning hand here, hehe. :p

Hope we can get them over here.

He totally avoided a straight response, instead delved into logical fallacies about how it would improve the process but as you said it would just add another unneeded layer if a centralized storer is still needed of the gold itself. I need to broker a debate for you and Schiff, i'll host this program on my youtube channel. lol

I'm game!! I doubt Schiff would debate a no-name, but let him know I'll do it for sure. Lol.

I'm happy to say the gold and bitcoin are both forms and money with a liquidity preference I would still choose gold. Well basically it has been around a long time. Perhaps because Bitcoin has never weathered a recession or financial crisis. So bitcoin was invented in 2009. We have not had a recession or financial crisis in 2009. On the other hand we know exactly how gold or silver reacts to recession or financial crises. That’s why I have in my portfolio both.

Ya, I mean it's kind of just personal preference in terms of which you prefer to own. Bitcoin is more likely to go way down but also to go way up. Lower floor but higher ceiling.

Gold people, I think generally unknowingly (bearing in mind the idea that it needs to go up a bunch in order to be the world's default currency), are trying to have both. They want gold to be the secure traditional asset that won't ever go down a lot, but then they want it to apparently have a huge upside too.

I love your post about crypto and gold. Nobody seems to be talking about gold as an investment anymore. It’s like a forgotten treasure. However gold has not really rallied just yet. It’s been going slowly up, right? Now, everybody expected it to fall. Everybody believed that as soon as the Fed hiked rates, gold’s gonna tank. So far it didn’t go down. It rallied slowly. I think once it overcomes some of this resistance at around $1,350 and I think if we can move above that and then get above $1,400, just to make sure it’s cleared out, then I think it’s off to the races. I think bitcoin will definitely stay here, it’s irreplaceable. I also love the volatility it brings, it gives everyone great opportunity to get on the crypto train.

Ya, I mean gold and mining stocks seem cheap relative to other things (stocks, real estate.. obv cash is trash)..

Outside of crypto it seems fine, and maybe could go on a big run next time the problems in the economy show up. Just, I doubt it will ever break out in a critical way, like go up 20x and hold, like it would need to if it were going to be used as the world's common money one day

yes that's true. Gold still be gold. But Gold not scalable. Today's economic system is a scalable economy and Blockchain will bring this economic system to a new level. In the future, I do not see physical monet or physical gold in a world where even the machines will have a digital wallet. The world we are in is changing and we are entering a new era. Thanks for post.

For sure! Glad you enjoyed it.

Right, once you have a ledger that people accept as a fair way to keep track of who did what for who.. then you don't need a physical object anymore.

We needed it once upon a time, but when you have the technology to not need it, it isn't a drawback that we don't have a physical object tethered to each unit.

you are actually right , gold will always be a physical object and it's physicality might hinder it into becoming what the "gold people" wants it to be .... I agree with you in every way!!

Ya! It's a blessing in certain ways but a drawback in terms of what would be the best, most commonly used money today.

Everything in this world came and gone, technology is recently grown, in that Blockchain technology is in Infant stage but Gold was king, Gold is king and Gold will be king, because it's precious and in history Gold lead to the great prosperity and Gold leads towards the great destructions through wars. If someone is comparing Blockchain with Gold then they have to understand that Blockchain is an Online and virtual aspect and Gold is physical. Thanks for sharing and wishing you an great day. 🙂

Stay Blessed.

You stay blessed too :)

Thanks for sharing. Ya, they're different things .. apples and oranges, and no real reason to want to combine them

Thank you and welcome. 🙂

Dear full-measure,
Nice comparison. I fully agree with you at this point that gold should be gold and the value will be here anyways. There is no need to put a blockchain to it. Moreover, we already have a coin who is the so called digital gold - it is btc.
It will reach at least 30k$ this year. If lightning network and so on gets into usage then it could easily reach 50k$ or even more - if everything works properly and does not fail.
Yours truly, Gandalf The White

Yup! There's no need for gold once we have a way to have a fair ledger WITHOUT the inconvenience of passing objects back and forth.

I think it's easy to conflate "not a physical object" with fiat and money printing and all the downsides that go with that. But, the actual issue with fiat as we know it is that it's centrally controlled. Whether or not it's a physical object isn't what matters.

(Physical object was important just because then it's not possible to have central control of it. But the central control is the part that matters.)

Cheers, Gandalf.

Ye, but somehow I still think that it is kind of necessary that some physical stuff like eg. gold needs to remain to be handed over every single time you buy/sell some, does not it? Or at least if a proper ledger is being used it needs to be stored safely somehow (by someone) - logically haha.
But I know what you mean my friend.

Yeah, probably. Although I think that both should and will exist - fiat and crypto. Centralization and decentralization. It is always good to have some choices. (:

So true full-measure!

Have a great day!

Two minutes and nine comments already! Whoa!

S#!t's flying!

I AM IMPRESSED ON YOUR TITLE.

tyty! ::takes a bow:: I thought of it all by myself 😶

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