Statistical Analysis Friday 9th March

SANDOWN 2.30

2/1 No Hiding Place, 4/1 Ratify,
5/1 Skinflint, 13/2 Briac, 8/1 Kastani Beach,
14/1 Lord Marmaduke, Scrafton, Stolberg.

2m handicap hurdle
For Military Amateur Riders

Number of hurdle runs

31 Kastani Beach
30 Stolberg
9 Ratify
9 Briac
7 Scrafton
4 No Hiding Place
3 Lord Marmaduke
3 Skinflint

We have 3 very inexperienced hurdlers
We have 2 very exposed ones
With 3 horses in the middle

Past winners had the following career starts
5 12 23 22 17 19 21 26 19 26 25
This tends to go with experienced horses
Last years winner (5 runs) was the exception
But it was a small field dominated by that type

Past winners had the following hurdle starts
3 8 12 14 16 8 8 21 10 16 23
Every past winner aside from last year
Had raced 8 or more times over hurdles

I'd be wary of young inexperienced types
LORD MARMADUKE looks short of runs
His aged group struggled anyway
Horses aged 5 are 1-21 in this since 2001
NO HIDING PLACE is only a 5yo
Would be foolish to argue he can't win
But 6 runs and 4 over hurdles is no ideal
The only previous 5yo winner in 2016
Had 12 runs and 8 over hurdles
SKINFLINT is very inexperienced

SCRAFTON wouldn't be first choice
Just one bad race since November

RAITY is a 14 year old
Hard to bet a horse that old
Especially one down from a 2m 4f chase
Go back to 1997
No Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles
We to a horse as old as him
In any class and at any time of year
STOLBERG pulled up last time
Didn't see enough positives for him
With one of the more unproven riders

KASTANI BEACH is the most exposed hurdler
I see him more as a potential saver

BRIAC is my choice
9 Hurdle runs is fine
He has enough experience
But is not too exposed either
I like his last race at Sandown
Thats a significant trial race
In the last 16 past renewals
9 horses came from the same race
They finished W W W W W 4 7 5 2
If you extract Male horses
Under 10 years old from this race
You find a W W W W W record
The 2002 2003 2004 2006 2013 winners
Won't make him run any faster
But I like his preparation and profile

Selection

BRIAC 5/1

Each Way

DUNDALK 6.00

5/4 Rivellino, 7/2 Iron Ryan, 11/2 Seanie,
7/1 Mister Dancer, 12/1 Ancient Astronaut,
12/1 Cherry Kool, 20/1 Your Pal Tal.

Claiming race over 6f

I could only bet shortlist two of these
RIVELLINO and SEANIE look safest
As their rivals lack fit profiles

MISTER DANCER is the highest rated
He is a 6 year old absent 907 days !!
Not been seen since 2015
ANCIENT ASTRONAUT is unraced
Just 1 bad run in the last 150 days
CHERRY KOOL may not be fit enough
He has raced once since July 2017
IRON RYAN is a 6 year old
He has raced only once since 2016
YOUR PAL TAL is rated far too low

Shortlist
RIVELLINO 10/11
SEANIE 9/2

RIVELLINO is the second best horse
Happiest on the sand he is 0-25 on turf
He seems to have found a soft race
I read he has beaten SEANIE 4 times
Every race is different and this is over 6f
Who copes with the drop to 6f can take it

Selection

£5 Win Bet RIVELLINO 10/11

£5 Win Bet SEANIE 9/2

NEWCASTLE 6.15

11/4 Displaying Amber, 4/1 Coastal Drive,
4/1 Furni Factors, 5/1 Team Showme,
8/1 Section Onesixsix, 12/1 Ghost, Jampower,
14/1 Ideal Spirit, 25/1 Mount Victoria.

3yo Handicap over 6f

Fillies that come from recent 5f races
Have a 0-29 record in these races

January February March
3yo Handicaps over 6f
Class 6 races

Fillies from 5f races this year
Have a poor 3-114 record
Those with 1 run this year are 0-30
Those absent over 22 days are 0-33
Those with under 6 runs are 0-46
DISPLAYING AMBER fails all 3 angles

I doubt she will stay anyway
Her pedigree looks pure 5f-6f
DISPLAYING AMBER is opposed

IDEAL SPIRIT is a filly from 5f
She is just running too low numbers

GHOST is a filly from 5f
We know similar types are 3-114
She is not safe enough on profile
JAMPOWER is up in distance
Hasn't achieved enough yet

MOUNT VICTORIA has recent runs
Too much I dislike about her profile
She is a small horse
Her 2yo numbers beat her 3yo numbers
That and her size make me suspicious
That she may not have trained on
Looked a problem ride last time as well

TEAM SHOWME is a filly
I like that she has 3 recent races
I can match her to a winner
But would have liked more experience
And Stall 1 may not be in her favour
Newcastle Handicaps over 5f 6f 7f
Since the track opened
With 8 or more runners
Show fillys drawn 1 were 0-56

SECTION ONESIXSIS is a filly
Just 1 run in the last 145 days
Can't quite rule her out
But there are safer options

COASTAL DRIVE is topweight
He comes down from a 7f race
I can match him to a winner
He has the best numbers as well

FURNI FACTORS comes from 5f
But he has serious other positives
He is experienced with 10 runs
He has raced 4 times in 2018
That is more than every other horse

Selection

£8 Win Bet FURNI FACTORS 3/1

£2 Win Bet COASTAL DRIVE 7/2