Do I Invest In Steem?

As I write this article Steem to the US Dollar is US$ 0.74. The trend does seem to be going downward still so I feel that if I buy Steem today, I stand to lose money. But on the other hand, if Steem had bottomed out at this price, then there's no way for it to go but up. And if I don't buy now, I stand to lose on the opportunity.

These are the times when I wish I had a crystal ball. Like when I first began investing in the stock market way back in '99. I was into it for just 3 months when I hit the Asian crisis head-on and I lost a fortune. Like when I started to get back into it in '08 and got swept with the financial crisis involving American Insurance General. Now, after 10 years, I'm thinking of beginning again, this time with Steem. I actually have started 15 days ago to test the Steem waters by buying 100 Steem at US$0.89. Well, now you know how this fared. It's US$0.74 today and falling(?).

I've never been really lucky with the speculation game. Looking back at all my sorties on this, I lost most, if not all, of what I invested. The same goes with friendly gambling. I used to play Russian poker with friends and I always wound up losing. Same with mah-jong. And practically anything with bets involved, I just do not win. I bet that the Cleveland Cavaliers will win last year. Lost. I bet the Houston Rockets will be WCF champions this year. Lost. I placed good money Tiger Woods will win a major this year, guess what? Lost. So what can a man unlucky in gambling say? I guess I'm lucky in love ha ha ha.

But I digress. Let's get back to my main topic. I have about US$100 fiat money which I want to invest and I am asking myself do I place this in Steem? Actually, it's easy to decide on this. Just follow your gut feel. If it says buy Steem, end of discussion. Case closed. Hello Blocktrades. But I feel this is not the right way to decide on this matter. Do you agree? I think there must be a more systematic way of coming up with a decision so regardless of what happens, I can rest assured that I did the right thing at the right time. How to go about this then?

First, there must be an objective. But this is simple. Of course I want to make money. That's my objective. Next step please.

Second, there must be a time frame involved. How soon do I want to make money? Can I wait? If yes, how long do I want to wait? Now, this is a bit more interesting to answer. There's no arguing, I want to make money now. Who wouldn't? But can I afford a delay in making the money? Ahh that's a good one. Do I need this fiat money immediately? Obviously not. That's the reason why I'm thinking of investing it in the first place. So the answer is I can wait. For how long? Let's see. I'd like to cash in on this by December this year in time for Christmas shopping. At worst, by February 14 so I can buy the wifey a beautiful Valentine's day gift. Therefore, 3 months wait is minimum.

Where can I invest my money? In my country, Philippines, these are the places where I can invest my money.

1. Savings account with a bank.
2. Savings account with a cooperative.
3. Time deposit for 3 months.
4. Place it in a Unit Investment Trust Fund.
5. Place it in a Mutual Fund.
6. Buy shares of stocks in the stock market.
7. Lend it out at an interest.
8. Buy cryptocurrency, Steem in particular.

Recently, our Central Bank came out with a report stating that the inflation rate in the country is now at an alarming 6.4% rate. What's inflation? It's the level of increase in prices. Simply said, if the rate is 6.4% then your 100 pesos in January of this year can only buy 93.60 pesos worth next January. With this in mind, I must make sure that when I invest, it must beat inflation! Now, let's look at the choices I have where to invest. Savings account with bank earns 0.005 or 0.5% or half of one percent a year. No beating inflation with this one. Same with savings account with a cooperative. It'll only earn 2% a year. How about time deposit with cooperative? Notice I left out time deposit with a bank. That's because it offers only 0.75% per year. With a cooperative? It's better at 5%. Close but no cigar.

Unit Investment Trust Fund (UITF) and Mutual Funds are managed funds, i.e., someone is managing your investment for you. For a fee, of course. The former, UITF, is offered by banks while the latter are companies that do the investment for their clients. A quick check in the internet of how Sun Life Mutual Funds (one of the more established Mutual Funds in the country) and Metrobank UITF (again another giant in the banking industry) all show negative year-on-year earnings except for fixed investments such as money market funds and bond funds which are all under 2%. Not so promising.

Stock Market. It's down as of now. The PSEi (this is the Philippine Stock Exchange index of share prices of 40 Blue Chips companies) is in the 7,200 level while a few months ago it already broke 8,000. That's a 10% drop. But still, it does hold a lot of promise. COL Financials, one of the country's leading stock brokers had forecasted the index to hit 9,300 by year end while saying that the bottom will not go lower than 7,800. It is now 7,200 so how can I be confident with their forecast? Hmmmm, I'll pass on this one.

Lending out for an interest. Most of you are probably not aware that money lending is one of the biggest earners in the Philippines. Money lenders are making a big killing by charging 10% rate per month on money loaned out for 60 days. Example: You borrow 5,000 pesos on 60 days term. The total amount to be paid in 60 days will be 6,000 pesos. That's a cool 20%. However, collections are daily at 20 pesos per day per 1,000 borrowed. Considering that the principal is already being paid within the 60 days term means the actual interest earned is more than 20%. More like doubled. But being who I am, I don't think I can lend money at an interest. I'm a religious person and the Bible says not to lend out with interest. So that's out.

So now, I'm left with cryptocurrency. Steem in particular. Why Steem? Well because I'm in Steemit, that's why. And it's very cheap now. Plus I can power up and earn from powered Steem (SP) through delegation, self upvotes or selling votes. But isn't it that the price can go down and I stand to lose money just like the other alternatives mentioned above? Ahh. Good point. But let me backtrack for just a little bit and remind you that about 15 days ago I bought Steem at US$ 0.89? I mentioned this earlier, in case you missed it. Although it is only US$ 0.74 now, it actually went up to US$ 1.02 sometime within that time frame but I didn't cash out. If I did, that's a cool 10% in less than two weeks. And here lies the beauty of investing in Steem. Yes, it may go down, but it does have surges and jumps which I can take advantage of just like what happened in the last 2 weeks. And, as mentioned above, I still have a lot of options on how to earn from my investment if the prices continue to drop. Therefore, my decision is: BUY STEEM!

I'm betting that there will be numerous surges within the next 3 months that will make my investment a profitable one. And you know how I am when it comes to betting, right?

Disclaimer: This article is not a financial advise. I am not a financial adviser and the above discussion only reflects my personal opinion about the matter.

(Image is sourced from Pixabay)