The Bond and Debt Bubbles are Two Sides of the Same Coin.
In this report, I cover the early market action from London on Tuesday, March 26th, 2019. I look briefly at the precious metals, the stock market, the dollar, the bond market, and the energy market.
Today I look at the recent moves in the bond markets and in particular the U.S. Treasury note 10-year yield. Mainstream economists and investors consider the 10-year yield the "risk-free rate of return" and that is why this rate is important not only for investors in the bond markets but in other asset classes.
I briefly go over the history of the 10-year yield and show how important it is for it to remain not only relatively low but also in a descending trend. The bubble we have seen in paper assets since 1981 can only continue if interest rates remain low and do not break the almost 40-year trend.
The Federal Reserve until recently thought they could normalize their monetary policy but quickly realized that it was a big mistake as it would have brought down the whole paper money edifice down. My conclusion is that eventually, this credit bubble will implode but that for now, the Central Bankers have bought themselves a bit of time.
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Definitely U.S.Tbonds rate will rise in the long run, because less and less foreign countries would buy it.