You are viewing a single comment's thread from:

RE: I See Bubble People

in #cryptocurrency4 years ago

I don't really believe in the efficacy of technical analysis either, but I've talked to enough successful traders that use it. If enough people believe TA achieves results, then TA achieves results. Even if the underlying graph shouldn't predict what will happen, because people believe it does and invest based on it then it does. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Sort:  

That't like saying that astrology works (aka the relative placement of planets across our system) because some people believe they work.

LOL no it's not. The market moves based off of people buying and selling. If enough major buyers/sellers make decisions based off of TA then the market will move because of them. People believing in astrology doesn't change gravity. How do you not understand this?

That does not mean that looking at a graph will tell you if the market should move up or down. But if 10 million in buy orders come in on Ethereum cause people see a teacup and decided to buy it then the market will move.

But to be honest, I have no idea if TA works or not in theory. I have never seen anyone analyze it historically or empirically. I imagine in a few years it will be possible for AI to look at the history of many graphs quickly and analyze whether or not it actually predicts prices better than randomness. Until then I'll remain agnostic on it.

If enough major buyers/sellers make decisions based off of TA then the market will move because of them

you can never know this.

People believing in astrology doesn't change gravity. How do you not understand this?

irrelevant. this is not what I said.

That does not mean that looking at a graph will tell you if the market should move up or down. But if 10 million in buy orders come in on Ethereum cause people see a teacup and decided to buy it then the market will move.

That does not prove that TA is correct. It demonstrates that belief in the TA is.

We can poll traders if they think people buying/selling because of a concrete reason, whether valid or not, will move the price of something and bet on it if you think it's impossible to know.