#nateUnmoderated tagAll postsTrending CommunitiesSteemitCryptoAcademyNewcomers' Communityআমার বাংলা ব্লগKorea • 한국 • KR • KOAVLE 일상STEEM CN/中文WORLD OF XPILARSteem POD TeamComunidad LatinaTron Fan ClubSteem AllianceBeauty of CreativityExplore Communities...#nateTrendingNewPayoutsMutedbumblecat (78)in #polling • 2 days agoA reader asked Nate Silver if the polls will underestimate Trump.He answered that we have no way of knowing ahead of time. Poll bias is not consistent across elections. And this is…zafrada (78)in #electoral • 3 days agoHere is how the electoral college bias looks like in Nate Silver's model.Right now the model expects an electoral college bias of 1.7. That'd be significantly less than it was in 2020…zafrada (78)in #nate • 27 days agoFwiw Nate Silver's election model thinks North Carolina and Georgia will vote together this year.They are highly correlated in his model. And either state could be the tipping point state. North Carolina has some…zafrada (78)in #nate • last monthFwiw Nate Silver's polling average sees RFK's effect as helping Trump by only 0.3%.FiveThirtyEight's polling average for reference sees RFK's effect as helping Trump by only 0.2%. His polling was on…bumblecat (78)in #nate • 2 months agoPolling favours Harris right now.Harris is now leading in Nate Silver's election forecast with a 50.5% chance to win the election fwiw. Harris has a…leguna (78)in #nate • 2 months agoNate Silver's polling averages fwiw.He's weighting more recent polls more than older polls, but as far as I can tell still includes older polls. So…pomeline (78)in #nate • 2 months agoNate Silver election forecast.Nate Silver's new election forecast is out now that Harris is the nominee fwiw. I think it is far too early for this…zafrada (78)in #election • 2 months agoIs Nate Silver finally admitting he's just doing election models based on vibes now?Fundamentals are an important part of election modeling: polls shift a lot over time polling error is a…nooses (78)in #nate • 3 months agoBest polls give Biden a grim outlook.I mean Nate of all people should know state realignments across election cycles can be pretty large. Just look at how…women-power (64)in #nate • 4 months agoFinding the Best Quality Internet Without CompromiseFinding the Best Quality Internet Without Compromise In today's digital age, a reliable internet connection is…zafrada (78)in #nate • 4 months agoBizarre and self-contradictory tweet (which is like all his tweets these days).Low-information swing voters would be most susceptible to the contours of how one of the largest newspapers in the…zafrada (78)in #cross • 5 months agoMy dude is getting bad at the one thing he was actually good at.My dude is talking about the very large sample Harvard Youth poll that specifically polled young voters aged 18-29…zafrada (78)in #cnn • 7 months agoLol "the polls".Nate Silver is basing this on one flash poll by CNN. A flash poll that had a notably higher amount of Republicans in…bumblecat (78)in #nate • 8 months agoNate Silver has become so pandering lately.Phillips is not getting more press coverage because he's a nobody who isn't polling high. No one expects him to win…zafrada (78)in #covid • 8 months agoWat.There could be publication bias, but a number of publications have discussed both coronavirus origin hypotheses, as…zafrada (78)in #nate • 9 months ago"probably was true" doing a lot of work here, along with "endorsed by the Biden Administration".Are we gonna just act like people weren't acting like it was a Chinese bioweapon? In that very interview with Tom…bumblecat (78)in #nate • 9 months agoBold of Nate Silver to talk about others losing face.Entry #35 in my new genre of Nate Silver talking to a mirror. The COVID origins stuff is maddening to me as the…arbitration (78)in #nate • 11 months agoFree speech in trouble?This article by Sliver supports two things I have been thinking about free speech It is a bigger problem on the…zafrada (78)in #covid • last yearThis is a good summary of how Nate Silver has completely lost the plot these days.I really suggest just reading the entire "proximal origin" letter itself to begin with to understand how Silver et al…bumblecat (78)in #nate • last yearCOVID broke Nate Silver's brain.This is not true. Silver's reading comprehension is terrible. The "proximal origin" paper specifically included…