Trump will remain Trump

When today journalists and" talking heads " discuss the alleged political events of 2019 in Washington, often it comes to the probable impeachment of Donald trump.

On Christmas eve, the 45th us President himself seems to have added confidence to those who predict his imminent expulsion from the White house. The dispute over the financing of the wall on the border with Mexico led to a partial "closure of the government". Then came the news of trump's decision to withdraw the us military from Syria, which caused an explosion of indignation in the Washington establishment.

Due to disagreements with the head of state, the resignation of the Minister of defence James Mattis, followed by the US special envoy to the coalition against LIH* Brett Mcguirk. And although most American media in 2017 claimed that Mattis nicknamed the Mad Dog " not qualified "to lead the military Department, today the same media talk about his departure as the" greatest loss " for America.

On top of that, the main stock indices rushed down. Financial analysts called December 2018 "the worst December since the great depression" for the s&p 500, which is considered the main indicator of the stock market.

All this allowed the ill-wishers of the owner of the White house to draw a conclusion (however, not for the first time!) that Christmas eve 2018 was the " beginning of the end of the presidency of Donald trump." But if we filter out the media noise and focus on the facts, we will see a very different picture.

"Government closure" has happened many times in US history. In 2018, the us President was because of what to go to the principle: the Senate refused to allocate funds for the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico.

The leader of the democratic minority in the upper house of Congress Chuck Schumer said directly from the Senate rostrum: "if you, Mr. President, want to" open the government", give up the wall!"Trump, whose important campaign promise was the construction of the wall on the southern border, did not succumb to blackmail and decided to fight.

All the talk about the" indescribable suffering of ordinary Americans " because of the perseverance of the head of state sound unconvincing. This time, only a quarter of all Federal agencies fell under the" closure". Bill Clinton in his time completely "closed the government" because of disagreements with Congress for 21 days. The crisis ended on January 6, 1996, and in the autumn of the same year the President was triumphantly elected for his second term.

The withdrawal of troops from Syria (and later from Afghanistan) was also a pre-election promise of the 45th us President. That the Minister of defence dispersed with it in views and resigned, too there is nothing unusual. Barack Obama changed the four heads of the Pentagon. Two of them-because of serious political differences.

The fact that trump has exacerbated the game at the end of the year, when no one has assumed any surprises, is consistent with the style of Big Donald. In the apt words of the first campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski, "the tramp remains a tramp".

The White house owner's pre-Christmas moves were expected to elicit mixed reactions in his own party. The persistence in defending the border wall project was largely appreciated. But the withdrawal of troops from Syria by a significant part of the Republican congressmen was met with hostility.

However, for trump, such a reaction is a huge success. In 2016-2017, most party leaders considered the call to " Build a wall!"just a populist slogan that does not necessarily translate into reality. Then many party members of the President openly criticized the "immoral" idea of physically isolating themselves from the southern neighbor.

The behavior of Senator Lindsay Graham is most characteristic in this regard. In 2017, he was one of trump's main intra-party opponents. Now he supports the owner of the White house in many of his endeavors, including the construction of the wall. In his Twitter, Graham wrote: "we will not retreat from the wall. We'll build a wall." At the same time, he said he was shocked by the President's decision to withdraw the military contingent from Syria.

Undoubtedly, trump risks again to cause dissatisfaction with his party, which he just managed to "tame". But this risk is quite justified. The prize in this game is the final transformation of the Republican party into the trump party, including on foreign policy issues.

The probability of impeachment of the President, which is now so much talk in the United States, does not depend on what "dig" special Prosecutor Muller, and the political plans of democratic congressmen. Even if trump has nothing to remove from power, the house of representatives, controlled from January 3 by the democratic Party, can begin the impeachment procedure.

The problem for the opposition is that the Senate will never condemn the head of state by a two-thirds vote. Those who started the impeachment, it may come back to haunt the loss of seats in Congress at the next election. But the rating of the owner of the White house is unlikely to be affected. Already mentioned bill Clinton after the successful outcome of the impeachment process in 1999 had a higher rating than before the re-election in 1996.

However, the Democrats do not necessarily engage with trump in a tough battle. They can cooperate with him on a number of issues. For example, the President supported the bill on the reform of the criminal justice system has gained in the Senate by 87 votes out of 100. It also happened shortly before Christmas, but less about it was written in the press.

In addition, the infrastructure bill proposed by Donald trump ($1 trillion is planned to be invested in the country's infrastructure) can also receive support from both parties.

This, of course, does not mean that full political reconciliation can be achieved. Democrats have repeatedly admitted that trump is not just an opponent for them, but an existential enemy. Profile committees of the house of representatives, which from January will be in the hands of the Democrats, will conduct about a dozen investigations against the President. Under the microscope will consider his family, his company, the business of his friends. It is hardly easy to let go on a well-deserved vacation and special Prosecutor Muller. But all these investigative actions can safely continue until 2024 and have no impact on the activities of the President.

Trump can only cripple serious negative phenomena in the economy. So far, despite the prophecies of the guru of free trade and the fall of stock indices, the real sector feels great. GDP continues to grow at a record pace, unemployment is at the lowest level in the last 30 years, the country is building new industrial enterprises — in short, "tramponomika" works. Therefore, it is hardly necessary to trust the statements about the imminent completion of the"chaotic and short era of trump." The pre-Christmas demarches of the 45th President show that he is confident in himself and prefers the offensive to passive defense.

Trump intends to remain trump. And stay in your post. This can be changed only by the presidential elections of 2020, the preparation for which will begin in the spring of 2019.