This past weekend I talked about how the latest AccuWeather 2019 crop production analysis predicts a significant decline from last year’s corn and soybean yield. And how this past Monday, the fate of many farmers would be decided by the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly report that forecast supply and demand for major crops (global and United States) and livestock (U.S. only). But this was another example of why I don’t really care about reports, news or Trump twits because price action trumps everything and the chart suggested corn prices were going to decline.
The Agriculture Department on Monday said farmers planted a bigger corn area than analysts estimated and pegged crop yields that also exceeded expectations, sparking the biggest rout in futures since 2013. That was a blow to growers who were holding back supplies, hoping a rally that started in May due to delayed sowing would extend through the fall.
“This is a huge disappointment for farmers that have already been struggling with a lot of uncertainty with this corn crop, trade wars and what have you,” said Tanner Ehmke, manager of the research team at CoBank, a $138 billion lender to the agriculture industry. “A lot of people were banking on the opportunity to sell at much higher prices. This report now really brings that into question.”
I do feel story for all the farmers in the Midwest as they have just been reduced to pawns, as Trump continues to play chess with China. And like the big Ag companies, I would love to teach those farmers how to hedge their crops with futures so they can protect themselves win, lose or draw.
If there was one message I could send the farmers, it would be the chart suggests price will retest the weekly demand at $356.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.