Will the UK really run out of food in a Hard Brexit?

Project Fear II is in full swing, with stories about how the UK will run out of food within two weeks in the event of Hard Brexit.

This presupposes that all the supermarkets are run by fools, who will not make any preparations in advance to keep their businesses going.

In reality of course they will take action to ensure they have alternative supplies of food. I have already written about how some supermarkets like Morrisons are preparing for Brexit by increasing the number of UK suppliers. Waitrose and Marks and Spencers also try to source their food locally in the UK.

That leaves Tesco, Sainsburys, Asda, and the discounters Aldi and Lidl.

The BBC reported that some supermarkets are going to seek Authorised Economic Operator status from the EU.

This means they pay a little extra in order to have priority at the ports, so that they are not subject to delays.

Some of them are looking at increasing their supplies from the rest of the world (especially where they already have supply deals in place - all that is required is to increase the quantity ordered). Food from the rest of the world comes into the ports on the western side of the island, which are not subject to any delays.

The German discounters Aldi and Lidl are the most vulnerable. They tend to get all their food from the continent, and the fall in the pound after Brexit hit them hard. They are rapidly trying to switch to UK suppliers to protect themselves.

A combination of supermarkets switching to UK or non-EU suppliers, and households stocking up in advance, should see a hard brexit happen smoothly despite the armageddon stories.