The gold price is falling

in busy •  3 months ago

The gold price is falling. Take a look at the following chart:

goldprice.jpg

It's now below $1200, a price it's not been since the deflation scare of 2016. Except this time there is no deflation scare, which is why the price movement is so odd.

Gold and property are the two traditional hedges against inflation as they tend to hold their value. Therefore in times of inflation the price of gold rises, and in times of deflation the price of gold falls.

The price action in 2016 made sense as inflation across the western world was very close to zero.

But that is not the case now. In the United States CPI is 2.9% and the Fed is both hiking interest rates and reversing QE to control it. In the UK CPI is 2.4% and the Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.75%. In Germany CPI is 2.2% (the ECB won't raise interest rates though because of deflation in Italy and Greece, which share the euro with Germany).

The message is clear - inflation in on the march across the western world. So why is gold falling? Either it's because investors have found something else to hedge inflation with - like bitcoin. Or they believe that the current inflation is a blip and we'll go back to a deflationary world.

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