WHEN MOON? WHAT CHANCE FOR CRYPTO?steemCreated with Sketch.

in #btc3 years ago (edited)

Wrote by Artur and ICOdrops.com community

WHEN SOMETHING SOUNDS REASONABLE, DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT IS SO..

This conclusion I made after a huge number of countless predictions. It's my attempt to shove the current chaos with crypto market in any framework. So please do read up the info below, but as they sing in that song "Don't believe me just watch".

Before I can make an offer on where we could end up, I'd like to propose few empirical ideas (i.e. constants)

The first one is that market is cyclical. There never was a case in history when all the market went down to 0 and never been back still.

From personal experience I've heard two types of these stories: One of them is "Tulip mania" and second is related to some sort of collectable toys back in 1990's .

Recently there has been a lot of idiots that appear to be shouting out loud, where are those Tulips gone and Bitcoin will have same exit-scam. Don't get me wrong, I mean how can people compare Bitcoin with "Tulip mania"? One has to be crazy to draw the lines of comparison considering the fact that Bitcoin has the advantage amongst all of the financial money in value ever existed in historical trends that existed up until today.

So lets presume that the crypto-market will not go to zero and the chance of returning to ATH is high, although we do not know the time frame. But If you believe that the market will collapse, then may I ask you what are you doing here? Comon' seriously guys??????????.,....

Second one. If we see a promising forecast in media or influencers ( like Tom Lee or McAfee) , then be certain that it will not be like that.

History shows us that the majority is mistaken... This presumption will allow us to shortcut the circle of possible outcome scenarios..
If you have been fed by stories such as Bitcoin to drop down to 1k, then you can cross out such scenario from your head out of all possible..

Let me remind you, whats the key event that happened in October? We've broken key support level at 6K. And notice whats happened? All of a sudden everyone started talking about a long term bearish trend..so the chances are high that this will not happen.

In a relation to whats been said above one can draw the following concluding presumptions:

"When some thought gets into you're head ( for ex SELL Bitcoin ASAP now ) the same though appears in heads of other investors"

What to do in this case, you would be asking yourself right now? One thing to remember.. do not follow "the fight or flight pattern", in other words do not do things in an impulsive manner, take your time... focus.... think..... look around you and think again.

Lets place our bets

The most effective scenario that I heard is Halving. Just imagine for a second if you were on the same market for several bearish cycles. Most likely outcome would that you would already made a fortune.. managed to work out how things work on the market... and would be a fairly descent player that you'd learn to use the Halving schedule as your tool or an instrument as a means for a plot to destroy the majority.

To me this scenario has appeared not fairly frequently so lets use it as the main one.....!
Screen Shot 2018-12-29 at 16.08.29.png
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/uYKn9Nrx-Bitcoin-longterm-chart/

In accordance to this scenario we can reach the bottom within 5-6 months. We'll get back to ATH approximately to BTC Halving by May (2020) and then the growth to the Moon. However, there is one fundamental problem that sits at the core... People are trying to make the future in the history of the past... and as I've mentioned before that may not necessarily happen. Remember me writing about November, which historically has been the most profitable month? However, the complete opposite happened.. November was less profitable month of all 2018.

So lets consider the third constant..

The historical data seem to have much less influence than it seems. Consequently, the probability is high that this time is going to be something different that ever before. From the examples illustrated previously we can recall to November that was historically the most profitable month in history, or the bear-cycle in 2014 lasted 1.5 years because it`s always been like this.

Therefore, we are left with no option but to gather everything we know including the Halving and try to eliminate fantasy:

  • In the Q1 first quarter of 2019 we've get at least 3 major events happening: Bakkt, Futures, Nasdaq, ETF.

  • The market is massively oversold but the big players are having huge interest in it.

  • The capitalization and infrastructure that has been there in 2017 could not be enough to make funds for big investors who are trying to get into the industry. Why? Because for truly large players, market capitalization of even 1 trillion is a low-liquidity market.

So therefore we can expect to have something in Q1 of 2019. What will happen next will depend on what will happen before then. If we will fall before the launch of institutional products than we can expect stable growth afterwards. If we are growing rapidly then "Buying on rumours and Sell on news". Well I don't think there's much happening on the rumours, so I personally tend to believe that the first scenario has more chances of happening.

Is this the End for Ethereum?

No, and the last arguing point here was the fact that 4k technicians bought tickets to the last Devcon, however the overall demand was 40k.
Ethereum got a variety of developers and holders working on it as well as strong network effect, significant trade use.. no other coin has those features except BTC.

Ethereum behaves so disgusting, because the current bear market for it is the first. The number of fools who had ETH ( I mean ICO founders ) turned out to be too increased over the past 2 years. The coin itself is thinner in terms of capitalization, therefore it perceives cycles more sharply.

Regarding everything else out there. I don’t want to upset you, but everything outside of BTC and ETH is a casino. If you are well-diversified, then some Shitcoin can shoot and pull the portfolio out of market ass. But if you have only shitcoins and everything ... then I still have to upset you. There are chances, but they are not as many as we would you like.

What is left to do now?

A rule that I've managed to come up with :" If you have managed to sell on ATH, regardless of where the price has gone - you've done everything right. If you have managed to buy with a good correction ( like now) - you've done everything right.

Yes there are no guarantee, however I can be certain about one thing: If I follow this one rule, I will be ahead of many of those who don't :) So do it )

Are BTC gonna go to 1000$? Don't know.. but if Im gonna sell right now (after 1 year of downtrend), i'll be so stupid and end up on the bottom. You have to be a fool to think that "So we've settled for 85 %, let me sell right now and buy later"

Can you imagine Warren Buffet sat there thinking "Should I sell now(after 1 year of downtrend) and buy later" - See how it sounds, abstract from fear and panic. Sounds like shit...
So everything, the moment to exit is missed. When there is only one correct solution, then there is no choice. Here is an exit on a local pump - this is another conversation.

"But 4 months ago, Ether was worth 400 and it was also the bottom, now I would be x4." - Yes it is. But if I had sold then, I would have violated the basic rule - life did not prepare me for such a risk.

Talk about "rebuying option" these I can say are very organic thoughts.. I mean let me tell you, ever wondered why people sell and buy at a different price? Because the seller bets that price to drop down, whereas buyer may place all his bets to grow up. Therefore, at the moment when you really need to buy, you will be get shit into ears from all sides from media, influencers, hamster neighbors and ... you yourself. You yourself will believe in it.

In the same way, as we heard a shit in December 2017. All of them said that BTC will be 100k until the end of 2018.

Hey, thanks for reading so far...So to make a final sets of remarks in this article I'd like to illustrate the end of the bullish market for BTC to all of those who are chasing the bottom prices:
BTC graph chart.png

I marked out the candles and volume for the last bull week. And what kind of reversal are we seeing there? Nothing. At the previous correction, the volume was higher and the candles were more aggressive. Will we draw a clear bottom now? Will we have obvious accumulation? Nobody knows. But I know one thing smart money will try to do everything possible so that you been last who understand that we are on bull market again.

The main fact is 95% discounts for Ethereum and 85% for BTC. Perhaps this is the right time to start shopping.

I want to believe that engines are already heated and Big boys in suits are running around them, rubbing the rocket and almost nothing is shown to us.

The only question is whether it is the road to hell or we`re truly witnessing preparations to get to he moon.

f3ac941f6b8fbaeec4379.png

Thanks for reading the articles and keep up with the updates.

Happy new year guys!!!

https://Bit4.sale team