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RE: Secrets of Bitcoin’s Dystopian Valuation Model

in #bitcoin5 years ago (edited)

I'm unclear as to why this is dystopian (unless transaction fees skyrocket to compensate for the successive loss of block reward every 4 years). If bitcoin value skyrockets, wouldn't the transaction fees compensate? I would see a problem if bitcoin value fell which would knock out many miners, then the nonce difficulty could fall every couple of weeks until the network became potentially insecure, forking into infinity.

Addendum: After having read the first link on S/F, it looks like bitcoin will have an S/F ratio somewhere in the same neighborhood as Gold which is at 62. Bitcoin will be at about 50 (?) after the halving of 2020 and by extension about 100 in 2024.

Further addendum: having followed out several of the links, it's becoming clearer. Wondering now if trustless onchain will be for the truly wealthy and the rest of us will be chased off chain. Has anybody studied the pendulum like flow between Austrian and Keynesian models? Seems like 2008 sparked a move back toward the former which hasn't completed yet.

Interesting quote from your medium article...

Society is unwilling to allow some lazy fat cats sitting on gold doing nothing while extracting all the production from society in the form of deflation! That is why the money supply must increase (either via creating more of the same unit-of-account or alternatives becoming available).

and this...

Another facet is that it has been shown that Bitcoin requires an oligarchy to form, else it will no longer converge on consensus as the transaction fees become significant relative to programmed block reward.

This seems to be happening now around the edges of the system. The ossification of the protocol is making updates increasingly difficult (necessary fungibility changes and privacy enhancements are becoming an emergency) and eventually too difficult to adapt to changing circumstances. Authority was always better at such decision making. I think you once mentioned that you thought you had solved this centralization problem if I remember correctly. Have you implemented this yet?

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