Halvings, stock to flow and bitcoin prices

The current theoretical price for bitcoin, according to the 'Stock to Flow' model is about $8300. So, we're nicely on target. At the next halving, half of May 2020, the theoretical price goes to $55k. That's a lot more. However, we're not going to be at that price in May 2020.

Looking at the previous halvings - granted there were only two - bitcoin was priced at respectively a third or half the previous all time high value. It therefore seems unlikely we're going to be at, or over 20k$ in May 2020, and if so, certainly not by a large margin.

The real price movement (bubble) only starts after the halving. From November 2012 to November 2013 we went from $12.50 to $1150, which is almost times 100. From July 2016 to December 2017 we went from $650 to almost $20k, which is approximately times 30. Consequently, we can easily go times 10 or times 15 from where ever we are in May 2020.

By the way, the dotted lines connect bottoms and tops of the previous bull and bear runs. You will notice that the angles of the previous trends become less steep over time. A process which is likely to continue as bitcoin gains popularity and is more widely used.

Moving on, when we take $20k, or something not far from that level, as the May 2020 target; I can see two possible scenario's from here as represented by the light and dark purple arrows. My preference is with the dark purple one. More sideways up, followed by sideways down towards the end of the year.

As a result of my medium term outlook becoming less bullish, I have decided to sell my call options March 2020. One with a loss, the other with a small profit. I will let run my written October put option as that one is doing very well and still aligns nicely with the above described expectations. Should we make a second, lower low around $7500 or $7250, Then, I will probably write another one. Only once the down sloping brown resistance line is broken, does it seem responsible and sensible to buy LT OTM call options again. That may take a while, but poses no real problem as there remains plenty room to the upside in a relatively short period of time.