BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 112)

Disclaimer: This is not meant as financial advice and is for entertainment purposes only.

Over the last week I have been wanting to see the price return to equilibrium after being oversold on the 6/9. For me that would require a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart.

The price could continue ranging between $6,300 - $6,600 until running into the moving average or it could spike up to $7,000 which is where it currently waits. That is where there will be strong resistance which I expect to cause a new low below the $5,979 capitulation on 2/6.

Once a new low is created then I expect a very significant selloff to follow. I am still holding my short and have set up stop loss above the most recent daily fractal ($7,811 for BTC | $613 for ETH). My profit target remains $4,975 and $305 respectively.

If not in a position then now is the time to be proactive while the price continues to work its way towards equilibrium. My strategy has been to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC -0.02% & ETH and open a leverage short on ETH:USD/ETH:BTC. I am currently fully positioned and feeling great about it.

For those still looking for an entry a few have been outlined below

1. Sell BTC:USD at 12 day EMA . Save some (at least 50%) to sell the 26 day EMA in case price continues to rally. If price doesn't continue to rally then refer to #4 to enter the other 50%.
2. Sell ETH:BTC. Currently at trend and horizontal resistance cluster
3. Sell LTC:BTC. Recently broke major area of support and is consolidating after a bear flag
4. Wait for new swing low below $7,300 and then open short on BTC or ETH.

I am reminded of a Tweet that I read from @PeterLBrandt on twitter that well along the lines of:

“When long, buy the strongest asset in the class. When short, sell the weakest.”

I focus on BTC, ETH and LTC. Right now I would say that LTC is the weakest but I do not have the ability to short it on my exchange. Therefor ETH was my best option. I believe the ETH:USD offers the greatest chance for ROI and shorting ETH:BTC is the safest option.

I will often go weeks without finding a trade that I would take or recommend. Lately there has been an abundance of trades that give me a high confidence interval and offer a great risk:reward.

When I list out 4+ options do not let it overwhelm you. Focus on what you think is the best bet and then carefully consider how much risk you are willing to take. Calculate how much you would lose (if stopped out) and how much you would win (if hitting the target) BEFORE ENTERING. This could help you to decrease your position size or avoid the trade all together. If you feel too anxious or are in too much of a hurry to go through a couple simple calculations then you are FOMOing!

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