How much will 1 bitcoin be worth in 2026/27?

in #bitcoin4 years ago

Bitcoin has been the top-performing currency in the world in six of the past seven years, climbing from zero to a new high value of about $1,600.

But the cryptocurrency isn't anywhere close to its potential, according to Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Peter Smith, the CEO and cofounder of Blockchain.

In a presentation sent to Business Insider, the duo laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030. Free bitcoins you can get here.

Their argument is based on increased interest in bitcoin, thanks to:

Bitcoin-based remittances

Remittance transfers, or electronic money transfers to foreign countries, have almost doubled over the past 15 years to 0.76% of gross world product, data from the World Bank shows. You can earn 1 Bitcoin right now by using cloud mining.

"Expats sending money home have found in bitcoin an inexpensive alternative, and we assume that the percentage of bitcoin-based remittances will sharply increase with greater bitcoin awareness," the two said.


Liew and Smith said increased political uncertainty in the UK, US, and developing nations would help elevate the level of interest in bitcoin.

"We believe bitcoin awareness, high liquidity, ease of transport, and continued market outperformance as geopolitical risks mount will make bitcoin a strong contender for investment at a consumer and investor level," the two said.

Mobile penetration

Liew and Smith said the percentage of noncash transactions would climb from 15% to 30% in the next 10 years as the world becomes more connected through smartphones.

The global smartphone penetration rate is 63%, and the total number of smartphone users is expected to increase by 1 billion by 2020. The GSMA, a trade body that represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, says 90% of these users will come from developing countries.

This would make it possible for nearly everyone to have a bank in their pocket, and that should provide a boost for bitcoin as well. Liew and Smith say bitcoin could account for 50% of all noncash transactions.

Here are the basic model drivers Liew and Smith used:

A bitcoin price of $1,000 in 2017.
Network users will grow by a factor of 61 from now until 2030. "Put another way, we need a population of bitcoin users around a quarter of the Chinese population (or 5% of the global population) in 2030 to see bitcoin at $500k," Liew and Smith told Business Insider.

Bitcoin's user network grew from 120,000 users in 2013 to 6.5 million users in 2017, or by a factor of about 54, and this could be just the beginning. Growth of that magnitude would mean 400 million users in 2030.
The average value of bitcoin held per user will hit $25,000. "As institutional investor cash in bitcoin, sophisticated investors trading bitcoin, and bitcoin-based ETFs proliferate, we think the average bitcoin value held will increase to around $25k per Bitcoin holder," Liew and Smith said. Currently, with bitcoin's market cap of $16.4 billion, each of its 6.5 million users holds $2,515 worth of bitcoin on average.
Bitcoin's 2030 market cap is decided by the number of bitcoin holders multiplied by the average bitcoin value held.
Bitcoin's 2030 supply will be about 20 million.
Bitcoin's 2030 price and user count will total $500,000 and 400 million, respectively. The price was found by taking the $10 trillion market cap and dividing it by the fixed supply of 20 million bitcoin.
But a lot could go wrong, too. News surrounding bitcoin has been rather negative as of late.

China, which is responsible for nearly 100% of trading in bitcoin, has been cracking down on trading. The three biggest exchanges recently announced a 0.2% fee on all transactions and blocked withdrawals from trading accounts.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission also rejected two bitcoin exchange-traded funds and will rule on another one in the future. It's not expected to be approved.

However, Smith says bitcoin is still in its early stages.

"The SEC's ruling wasn't a surprise to us," he told Business Insider. He said that "getting that sort of approval" could take a long time.

"In the meantime, bitcoin is already simple to buy and hold, and as the asset continues to mature, we'll continue to see an increase in the development and deployment of surrounding products," he said.

Markets Insider

And while bitcoin hasn't been granted regulatory approval in the US, it is catching on elsewhere. On April 1, the cryptocurrency became a legal payment method in Japan.

Another threat to its future is developers who are threatening to set up a "hard fork," or alternative marketplace for bitcoin. This would result in the split of into bitcoin and bitcoin unlimited. However, Smith isn't worried.

"Bitcoin has strong economic incentives to prevent this," he said. "If the last two years of healthy contention and debate lead to a conclusion, it's that bitcoin is incredibly resilient and stable. In fact, the bitcoin blockchain has operated for seven-plus years with no downtime, a feat no other back-end system operating at this scale can claim."

But the cryptocurrency sees violent price swings uncommon among the more traditional currencies. Bitcoin rallied 20% in the first week of 2017 before crashing 35% on word that China was cracking down on trading.

The cryptocurrency has regained those losses and is trading up about 67% so far this year.

Get the latest Bitcoin price here.>>

World Bitcoin Network has just released a new Bitcoin Value Model.Let me begin by stating that this is a model, and no model can accurately state how much any currency is going to be worth at a point in the future. What the model can do, however, is show us how price is determined and the factors that determine it and the model can also allow us to factor in variables and view their effect. In February of this year, the Financial Times received an eMail predicting a $50,000 Bitcoin value. Their response was to remind people that Wall Street traders use models:

“While the eMail pointing to a $50,000 bitcoin is imprecise to say the least, It’s a starting point. A more rigorous mathematical model integrating demand projections with probabilities of certain make-or-break contingencies isn’t just possible – it already exists, in various versions, across various investors’ hard drives.”

Bitcoin has, seen as an asset, outperformed almost every other asset on Earth over the past five years. However, we cannot predict with certainty the Bitcoin value going forward simply because almost everything in the World can affect price and it is impossible to factor, anything other than a very small few of, these factors in. One of the most important factors must be Transaction Volume (The volume of bitcoins exchanged over any given period.) and today (29 June) that stands at 50,577 transactions. We must remember that someone sending themselves bitcoins, one wallet to another, will show. We must use the Transaction Volume figure cautiously. Another factor that will affect Bitcoin value is the level of positivity of the market. If people looking at bitcoins see good news they tend to buy in, if they see bad news they tend to sell. When China dictated that the PBOC should be anti-cryptocurrency the market negativity forced the price of a bitcoin down. The changes in positivity levels lead to people choosing to sell short and others to buy when they see the price as deflated and this leads to the important issue of volatility. Volatility is caused by people choosing to buy and sell bitcoins. Volatility is a significant factor in predicting Bitcoin Value going forward. Remember any currency must function as a means of exchange and also as a store of value. A volatile currency is a poor store of value, and this has led to traders accepting bitcoins to factor in a price margin to allow for volatility. This is the amount, over the dollar price, that traders charge for people choosing to pay with bitcoins.

Another important factor in predicting future Bitcoin value is the velocity, or the number of times that a unit of currency is used within a fixed period of time. Now, the lower the velocity, the higher the value. Remember, if velocity is high then that means there will have to be a higher number of transactions to achieve the total transaction volume, as measured in fiat. The $US has a transaction volume of 7, it is difficult to estimate the velocity of a bitcoin but it is in the 50-1oo. The next factor we must be aware of is Supply. Now, there are just under 13 Million bitcoins in circulation, but many of these may well be lost, others are held and therefore are not used for transactions. We talk about Liquidity, the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting the asset’s value. Liquidity is characterized by high levels of transaction volume. Now, if we accept that there are 13 Million bitcoins and if we assume that at least 1 Million are lost we must then look at the remaining 12 Million bitcoins and assume that a large proportion of these are hoarded by speculators, these coins are illiquid, the coins we spend and accept as payment are, on the other hand, liquid.

Remember, Gold is a great store of value, how much of that store can Bitcoin assume? More is better!

How much eCommerce can Bitcoin take up? More is better!

How much of the Global money supply can Bitcoin take up? More is better!

Black market as well as remittances, the more, the better!

Number of bitcoins mined, the more mined, the lower the value of a single bitcoin.

Have a look and see what you think will affect the future value of Bitcoin. Will it hit $50,000 or $1 Million? You decide!

Course Bitcoin the US dollar is the most popular search term, along with "What is Bitcoin?". Bitcoin Price is important in many cases, especially for those fiatnyh currencies, which largely depend on the dollar.

Now that the price of Bitcoin has more than doubled compared to the January minimum, it became apparent that Bitcoin-trolls and Hayter quieted down considerably at this celebration of life (always fun to see how it works). Now, when the good times return for Bitcoin as a global currency and the cost of the means of communication - how far can it go? What is the ceiling "future money"?

There was a time when mainstream media, some beating drums, praising Bitcoin as a long term investment. Most interesting is that usually took place at the next peak of the course, which in the history of cryptocurrency already been done. During the bubble Mt.Gox autumn of 2013, Henry Blodget (Henry Blodget) Business Insider predicted from Bitcoin price of $ 1 million. His article attracted 100,000 visitors to display at a time when the bitcoin exchange rate exceeded $ 1,000.

Not long ago, The Street quoted from an interview with a famous blogger Datavetaren, that Bitcoin is not only to reach the price of $ 1 million, but also to replace gold as the economic "safe harbor". What is this nonsense once intoxicated rapid rise rate bitcoin fans? Do we have carried out in their dreams on Fantasy Island? Or on the economic charts and actually have real long-term expectations regarding digital gold?

If Bitcoin consider comprehensively and thoroughly, it's hard enough to come to a negative output on the future course of the dynamics. Number of Bitcoin transactions per day sets records, crossing the border 100 000 transactions per day, so that the need for and use of Bitcoin is higher than it has ever been. As soon as the price of Bitcoin continues to grow, the media of all the forces trying to blacken the digital currency.

In July 2016 Halving will award for the block, reducing the release of new bitcoins to 12,5 BTC every 10 minutes. Specifically, it can not hurt Bitcoin price in the long term. This may coerce miners sell more bitcoins from reserves to maintain operations in the short term, so that the rules of the game will become tougher with increased dropout. It can act as a counterbalance to public recognition, at least for a while. Of course, we should not expect that the price of BTC is required to double by next fall, but personally I remain bullish on the price of Bitcoin. Steadily growing demand ever necessarily exceed the reserve offers, so that over time the price can not vyrasti.Faktor, of which all are silent - the long-term value of the "global reserve currency" of the US dollar. The US government has repeatedly tell you that inflation is only some 2%, they even say that there is no inflation at all, if you trust the "official" statistics. But anyone who bought a car, a pound of beef, or bitcoin, if it comes to that, will tell you otherwise. In the real world, the real inflation - not contrived and cartoon figure that they show - closer to 5% per annum, but not less than 2% .Many experts also predict an end to the US dollar as the world reserve currency by the end of this decade. Such a superpower like China and Russia, tirelessly working on in order to thwart a global economy based on the dollar basket. Appeared AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), the BRICS (Brazil / Russia / India / China / South Africa) created their own investment bank, under the slogan "we-hate-dollar", and there was a new Silk Road from China to Eastern Europe - all these are signs of a serious geopolitical economic shift.

At a time when the United States have accumulated $ 18 trillion. debt, non-dollar bilateral agreements are becoming the norm, and countries around the world are used for mutual Chinese yuan, the US dollar's days are numbered. This is not even a question of "if" but "when" there is a change of guard. The US dollar has lost over 97% of the cost over the past century, so c that would be stored on the model of economic incessant humiliation?

Bitcoin is valued in relation to the falling costs of paper assets, which is also moribund. We are all doing well, but I could write 100,500 words about why Bitcoin is more valuable than the dollar and the market obviously agrees. In the end, the question may not be how many dollars will it cost Bitcoin - as you know, each known to mankind fiatnyh currency has come to its collapse, and the dollar does them will be no different. So, what will the US dollar, will change the future of money, even more than it will make Bitcoin.

I have no doubt that bitcoin will cost $ 1 million. Not so much because of the potential inherent in bitcoin as a world currency, but because of the growing weakness of the US dollar. Global support and confidence in the dollar weakened, at the same time as they grow towards Bitcoin. And this despite the fact that the "third world" yet did not imbued with the value of Bitcoin.

Billion investments in infrastructure Bitcoin take another 1-2 years to ensure that bear fruit and make cryptocurrency suitable for easy and convenient use throughout the world. Bitcoin has proved its durability, but is still in its infancy. His aging may take a decade, but the value of Bitcoin is precisely the object of which is not to worry about the long term.

The only pressing question is whether your investment will be correctly placed when the sail "Black Swan"?