Tom Lee - "Bitcoin will hit $25k by... 2022"steemCreated with Sketch.

in #bitcoin2 years ago

Tom Lee is bullish on Bitcoin still, but it may take a bit longer than originally expected

Tom Lee has been known for his bitcoin price predictions over the past few years.

His firm, Fundstrat Global Advisors does some of the best analytics work for wall street clients in the entire crypto space.

His call for $25k by 2022 might sound bullish on first glance, but it is actually quite a bit lower than some of his previous price predictions.

In a recent interview on CNBC, Lee reiterated his bitcoin $25k by 2022, which was in contrast to his earlier $40k by 2020 call.

Why does he think $25k by 2022?

Unlike some of his previous price predictions that are mostly based on past trends surrounding the halving and bitcoin's subsequent price cycles, this one is based on network activity.

He says that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are more like network value assets than a typical currency.

Meaning they tend to be valued closely based on their network size/usage.

This is similar to the way a lot of the big tech stocks are being valued currently as well.

(Think FANG)

His exact words:

"Cryptocurrencies are network value assets, meaning the more people hold the asset, the greater the value. In fact, it’s a log function — so if you double the users hold it, you get a quadrupling of value. To go to $25,000 you essentially need a little less than 4x rise, which means you need to double the number of people who hold Bitcoin.”

“70% of their return [since public listing] is explained by the growth of the global internet in that period of time. In other words, it’s a LOG function of the internet’s growth, and that’s how cryptocurrencies are going to work.”

(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/tom-lee-like-faang-stocks-btc-will-hit-25k-due-to-network-value)

That is very interesting...

It means that if bitcoin were to double its network, the price should go up by 4x.

My takeaway...

If Lee and Fundstrat's analysis is correct, the biggest indicator of value for these things is network effect.

IE, if we want the prices to go up, we need to get more people holding them.

That is interesting as it relates to steem.

If this is indeed the best way to create value for these things, that would mean our goal for increasing steem prices should be to get steem into as many hands as possible.

Perhaps creating a giant faucet (steemit kinda sorta already is one?!), importing and airdropping on large communities, integrating steem into video games etc are things that would help increase network effect.

That is very interesting and something that should be considered when trying to figure out how best to create value for steem moving forward.

Something to think about.

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-15/bitcoin-should-hit-150-000-before-an-etf-can-work-tom-lee-says

-Doc

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From predictions of 250,000 by 2020 to 25K by 2022. We've seen a lot of dialing back expectations (or is it talking down the market) in the last few weeks. 25K is a good two year return on $8500, but no Lambos here. And probably no need to just rush out and buy. Hope McAfee is collecting dick recipes.

Yep, I agree. Though I would tend to put a lot more stock in what Tom Lee says as opposed to Tim Draper. As long as these targets eventually hit, the time frame is less important to me. Well as long as it happens within the next few decades anyways. :)

My time frame is a bit shorter. I have quit my weekly buys. I could get a big surprise, as bitcoin tends to do that, but the action has been so lame with the exception of a few good days that I am finally back to just holding on the sidelines.

Understandable. From a momentum standpoint, the past few weeks have been pretty terrible. Every little pop is met with selling that ultimately makes a lower low. Need a catalyst to break out of this recent trend.

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I don't understand why anyone is still listening to this guy.
He's wrong every single time.

The base value of Bitcoin at the end of 2022 is going to be $51k.
The base value at the beginning of 2021 is $25.6k.

There's going to be a bubble somewhere along the lines that pushes the price to x10+ the baseline, so Bitcoin should be 100k+ sometime within the next 2 years.

If this impending economic crisis is as bad if I think it's going to be, and if that's as bullish for Bitcoin as I think it is, that x10 above the baseline might be more like x100... honestly I hope that doesn't happen because the crash back down to the baseline would absolutely destroy everyone who didn't get in early. We'd probably be in a bear market for a full 2 years at least (and that would be during the worst recession the world has ever seen).

:(

Bitcoin could easily hit $25k next month. I like this guy's bullishness, but his predictions are just completely useless.

His track record with stocks is actually extremely good. Him and his team have been better than just about anyone else over the past decade. Regarding btc, everyone talks about his misses, but if you go back to 2016 when he first came on the scene he nailed a couple of his first price predictions as well. He has missed a few as of late but I like the fact that they at least base their predictions off of data as opposed to just pulling numbers out of the air, like many of the crypto prognosticators tend to do.

He basically has two predictions.

One is based on network activity and one is based off of past cycles/trends. Not sure which one is more likely to be right. Just because bitcoin has doubled every year previously doesn't guarantee that model will continue to play out. Though we will likely have to wait till about 2021 to really put it to the test.

he does have a lot of numbers out there and they do not all match up

I prefer @planb https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

But it does coinside with the Millennial generation starting to save up and that should push prices higher in the next few years

https://steempeak.com/steemleo/@felander/investing-per-generation-crypto-is-up-next

Yep, he has all kinds of models and stats showing different prices for different time periods. It just depends on which data set really matters the most in terms of prices I guess. Is it network activty? Is it millennials accumulating wealth? Is it past cycles/trends around halving events? He has different models for a bunch of different things.

Thanks for information

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All this are jargons bitcoin has a mind of its own, it pumps when no expects and dump when everyone expects it to pump shaking out the weak hands, it's a strong tools for controlling the market especially since it's difficult to easily manipulate the price individually.

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