This is the longest bear market ever for Bitcoin, or is it?!steemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  20 days ago

Is this really the longest bear market ever for bitcoin?

Things may not be as cut and dry as some are claiming...

Many are claiming that bitcoin is now officially in the longest bear market in it's 10 year history.

They claim this with gusto and almost with a bit of joy, like it somehow is a badge of honor to have weathered and survived the worst bitcoin had to give and yet here they are still standing.

Well I may have some bad news for them and may be about to douse some cold water on their dreams...

This isn't technically the longest bear market ever for bitcoin.

If you look at how people are measuring the bear market from 2014-2015 to get their 410 days of carnage, they are simply taking the high and measuring out to the low.

Which there was roughly 410 days between the two.

If we do the same right now and go back from the highs in late 2017, we are now 411 days from those highs.

That means this is officially the longest bear market right?

Well, not exactly.

You see, we technically made the low during this bear market about 2 months ago around $3,100 and haven't broken that low since.

(Source: https://twitter.com/TruthSpeakaSays/status/1091397211714437125)

So, technically, if we use the same criteria to measure this bear market as we did in the previous one, the bear market would technically already have ended several months ago, that is until bitcoin makes another lower low.

Which it certainly may, but it hasn't yet.

What does this mean?

Well not much really.

It's most likely just a technicality as most claiming bitcoin is now in its longest correction ever are expecting bitcoin to make a lower low within the next few months.

And, they will probably end up being right.

However, as it stands today, right now, bitcoin is not in its longest bear market ever, technically.

How's that for a dose of cold water?! :)

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://translatingcuba.com/a-bucket-of-cold-water-alcides/

Follow me: @jrcornel

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Yeah its just all a narrative to help people feel better. What people will tell you about the 14/15 bear market as well is the feel was completely different. People back then were sure they were going to loose everything and that the space would slowly die. Theres so much more support and business built up around the industry that what back the end felt like the end, now feels just like a bear market.

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Yep, I agree. Mt. Gox imploding and Silk Road going down felt like the end of bitcoin. This doesn't feel like that.

Due to inflation and market growing sideways. It seems we are in the long run for a bear market.
2017 put a dent on how high the market can grow.
It looks an eternity as we wish to see positive growth
Keep on postin

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Yes, this is just a comparison between the current bear market and the longest one ever in bitcoin's history.

Sure feels like the longest bear market ever

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Haha it sure does. Were you around for any of the others?

It’s almost as tho these ppl have decided to disgard the last 8yrs of btc history lol...

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Yep, they pick and choose whichever facts support their narrative.

This is exactly what I was thinking. How can they possibly make this claim when they don't know if Bitcoin has already bottomed?

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Still needs to make one more lower low before it will officially be the longest yet. Though I think they will end up being right as I think we have another plunge left.

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I don't think there will be a new low, but I certainly won't be surprised if there is one.

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What price are you thinking might get hit?

Keep in mind the next BTC halvening is very close: 25 May 2020. That halvening will have a dramatic effect on the selling pressure originating from miners on the exchanges.

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One might say it will CUT IT IN HALF... I thank you. I'll be here all week! :)

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The contrarian in me makes me think it could be a good sign the bottom is in as many are so negative that they believe the run downward will continue. I think we will find out soon enough.

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The contrarian in you may be right!

Hey dude - nice to see you in The Man Cave :)

Hi @jcornel, the water is very icy cold, thank you.

And, they will probably end up being right.

How do you know?

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I don't. I am just guessing based on the price action thus far. IE, bitcoin has trouble holding any bounce and the bounces seem to be losing steam as we drift lower... makes me think we still have at least one more thrust lower. What do you think?

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Thank you.
I think sideways and slowly higher from now.

Yes, you are technically right so, it means we are maybe in the accumulation phase already 😂😂

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Yes, we are, unless bitcoin makes a lower low, which many think it will.

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I don't think we are in accumulation phase yet... I think we are close to making new lowest low, most likely in next two or three months. There is too much difference in buy and sell orders for next accumulation phase to start yet.

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I agree. The bounces are so weak still and always met with sell pressure. There hasn't really been any signs that this market is ready to start going up yet...

I'm buying $60 per week of bitcoin...just a hunch that this will pay off in big way in the future.
It should be everyone's goal to own at least 1 Bitcoin...Hodl it tight.

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Not a bad strategy. You don't get caught up in trying to time the markets too much this way.