The Big Long – November a Historically Good Month for Bitcoin – 11/03/17
BTCUSD has seen gains in 6 out of 7 Novembers since it began trading in 2010. Even the 2014 bear market saw a gain in November, one of the few positive months for bitcoin that year. The only negative year for bitcoin was in 2011, which saw the worst bear market in bitcoin’s history – down 94% peak to trough. November marked the bottom of that bear market that year and start of one of the greatest bull market phases in human history. Here is the breakdown:
2010 +10.5%
2011 -8.9%
2012 +13%
2013 +550%
2014 +11.5%
2015 +21.2%
2016 +6.5%
By contrast, the month of October has only seen 4 out of 8 positive months, including 2017 and the month of September has only seen 3 out of 8 positive months, including 2017. The infamous 2013 mega-bull market had a down month for September. We also had a negative month for September this year.
Even the 2014 bear market saw a gain in November, one of the few positive months for bitcoin that year. As of this writing, BTCUSD is up 13% for the month of November. With the segwit2x hard fork slated for the middle of the month (Nov. 16th), this November is shaping up to be positive also. However, a sell-the-news event after the fork or unexpected problems resulting from the fork could derail the rally and potentially cause the month to be negative. We shall see how this month transpires.
Disclaimer: None of this is advice of any kind.
BTC could head towards $8,000 and then $15,000. For the short term, a classic zig zag a,b,c correction has completed and the blue waves should take BTC to higher, newer all time highs.
Thanks for the EW analysis. Do you have a long term count?
Yes, but you won't like it..and then will love it.
I am a Technical Analyst and believe that news or events shall arrive to justify the forecast and never the reverse.
Here is my long term Linear Chart. You see, a top is not an event, but a process. BTC is currently in a topping process and it could be somewhere between $8k to $15k....not sure. However, we are probably in the last bubble parabolic geyser phase and it could last a few months. This should also give time for the Altcoins to act out their bullish runs as analyzed in my prior blogs. All the Altcoins have a very high similarity index as sentiment is pretty uniform. This is why their EW counts and patterns are almost same. Once BTC's topping process completes, a cycle degree of trend correction is expected. Elliott Waves states that after fives waves, there is a requisite a,b,c retracement and at cycle level, this could be a very deep correction. It will be a site to behold, especially the level of fear. I don't know what news or event will be used as cause, but they shall arrive to justify the forecast. Perhaps the trigger for this correction could be that government will finally take steps to control cryptos? If so, the only coin that could go inverse could be BitShares as DEX would be a safe haven.
Here is my log chart of same scenario. Yes, it sounds crazy for sub $500 target, but the waves don't lie. The good thing is, selling at wave (v) of V of 5 would give us MASSIVE dry powder to sit on and wait for the calamity to end by counting the abc waves down. At the terminal end of the cycle level a,b,c correction, it will be when everyone almost hates Bitcoin. At $500 or less, many will be afraid. However, it's when all are afraid that we should be greedy! Buying at that level would be phenomenal because then price will take to $37,000.
Log chart counted in a different way but same destination:
Feel free to send a follow request to my Twitter (@haejin_crypto) and I'll include you in the High Upvoter only alerts and direct messaging.
I also believe bitcoin is in a long-term topping process. $500 is definitely in the cards. However, I also think there is a chance bitcoin will be superseded by superior technology and all POW coins will be obsoleted. This will be a long process that takes many years - that is just how markets and technology evolve over time. If that does in fact happen, I could see bitcoin peaking and languishing for a very long time. It is still very early days though, so if sub-$500 does play out, I could see bitcoin regaining its prior peak even if superseded.
I like your thoughts. Similar to the dot com bubble, most companies from that era are dead. However, amazon, google, ebay....are now giants. And the internet has made MASSIVE impact.
Most coins will be dead. I think DEX (decentralized exchanges) will be a survivor. Currently, Bitshares DEX can easily handle ALL Nasdaq, NYSE orders...its got that much capacity. Once Bitshares goes on EOS platform and becomes, BEOS; it'll be able to handle global transactions at a capacity unseen.
I believe owning 100k to 2.5 Mil BTS coins now will have it so that your future generations will bless your name for many centuries to come!
My very long term projection for Btishares is $342 and it is currently $0.05. So, 2.5 Mil coins today would equate $855,000,000 at that target. MASSIVE profits even for lesser number of ownerships. It's a true old turkey hodl.
Very good seasonality assessment of Bitcoin. My analysis of XRP shows that RIPPLE loves triangles. I combine Elliott Waves with Chart Pattern and project $0.52 target as shown:
If we make a run at 10K over the next two weeks into segwit, then we could still get a big sell the news pullback and stay positive for Nov.
Or we go even higher uninterrupted thanks to new money flow thanks to CME trading
I can still remember when I did the same math on Gold before the 2011 peak.
Bitcoin's price jumps more than 70% in one month.Thanks for your analysis follow and upvote.
Thank you for the support on my trading posts. Always nice to see some other analyst here. Take care and welcome back.
I do not mind Bitcoin to go up in November as long as alts are not equally going down ! :)
Great post and we will see !